2024 AFC East Preview: Scouting the Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills' road to a sixth-straight postseason appearance goes through the AFC East. Here's an in-depth breakdown of the Miami Dolphins.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Aug 8, 2024

Jul 28, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) talks to head coach Mike McDaniel during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

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Each week of the 2024 NFL season, I’ll be releasing a new edition of my Matchup Preview Series. That series is a comprehensive preview of how the Buffalo Bills matchup against their opponent that week. Leading up to that, I’ll be leveraging the same format to preview all four teams in the AFC East.

These previews will look at five components of each team: Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Special Teams. Each section concludes with my patented 👏 scale which ranges from (Best) to (Worst). The post culminates with a Floor, Ceiling, and Prediction of the team’s 2024 record.

The New England Patriots were up first. This week, we look at the Miami Dolphins.

Dolphins Pass Offense

Jul 29, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) signs autographs for fans during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

One way to generate a topflight aerial attack is to possess a Top-10 quarterback, top-tier WR2, and the most explosive player in NFL history. That’s exactly what the Miami Dolphins have in Tua Tagovailoa (QB), Jaylen Waddle (WR), and Tyreek Hill (WR) who fit head coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme perfectly. Tagovailoa brings a quick release and pinpoint accuracy to the table, allowing him to excel in Miami’s timing-based offense. Waddle’s elite agility and excellent route running provide an excellent second option for Tagovailoa in the passing game. Last, but certainly not least, is Hill, whose one-of-a-kind skillset flourishes in Miami’s offense especially when leveraging Cheat(ah) Motion, which McDaniel will surely reinvent if the NFL does actually change the rule. There's so much good in this trio that it’s hard to find faults, but is it possible that Miami has too much of a good thing?

In 2023, Hill and Waddle accounted for a whopping 59.9% of receiving yards and since 2020, when Tagovailoa was drafted, no other WR/TE has exceeded 40 receptions. This is a problem Miami seems intent on solving in 2024, signing Odell Beckham (WR) and Jonnu Smith (TE) while drafting Malik Washington (WR) and Tahj Washington (WR). Beckham is the key to resolving this issue but to date remains on the PUP list with an undisclosed injury, of major concern for a player whose career was derailed for the most part because of injuries. This opens the door for both Malik and Tahj Washington to earn more play time as two players with similar skill sets. Both fit the mold of a McDaniel WR, sitting under 6’0” but with speed to burn that makes them matchup nightmares in the Dolphins' movement-heavy offense. The winner of their in-house battle is likely to earn the WR4 role while the loser will be relegated to a consistent gameday inactive role. Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith is ramping up in the Dolphin’s offense as a player who is likely to eat into incumbent starting tight end Durham Smythe’s snap share (more on that later).

Miami clearly has enough options to be confident that the WR/TE #3 conundrum will be solved, but it’s predicated on improved line play that allows Tagovailoa to consistently get to his third read. And that will be a problem as the Dolphins have all but neglected this hole on their roster heading into 2024. On the outside, they do have an elite left tackle in Terron Armstead, when healthy, and a solid right tackle in Austin Jackson. Of note, Armstead is missing on average 5.5 games per season since joining the Dolphins. Despite that, the outside is their strength, but in Miami’s timing-based offense, the outside pales in importance to the inside, where there are major concerns. At center in 2024 will be ex-Titan Aaron Brewer, who is a run-blocking specialist but struggles at anchoring in the pass game. Flanking him will be some combination of Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones, and/or Liam Eichenberg, all of whom are sub-par guards in the modern NFL. It’s that trio, as well as a lack of depth, which could topple a house of cards that otherwise seems destined to yet again be one of the league’s most electric passing attacks.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Dolphins Rush Offense

Jun 4, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs with the football during mandatory minicamp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Similar to the pass offense, speed is the name of the game for the Dolphins on the ground as well. The two-headed Chimera of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane dominated on the ground in 2023, combining for 1,812 yards and 26 touchdowns on just 312 carries for a whopping 5.81 yards per attempt. Both have elite speed, which makes them deadly in the disguised looks Miami consistently throws at opponents. This allowed each to finish with a Yards Before Contact north of 2.5, with Achane’s 4.7 being the highest in the NFL for players with 50+ carries. There’s every reason to expect more of the same in 2024, hold for injuries of which both Mostert and Achane have a history.

And don’t be surprised if the Dolphins lean into the running game even more in 2024 as that Chimera is fully set to evolve into a three-headed Cerberus. In fact, Miami was so intent on this that they spent a 2025 third-round pick to move up to pick #120 this year to select Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright. The back's speed tested close to Achane’s as he posted a 4.38 to 4.32 in the lead-up to the draft, the difference being Wright did it with over 20 additional pounds on his body. This means another high-speed zoomer for the Dolphins that also carries with him enough thickness to take on smaller defensive backs in the open field. This is likely coupled with some other auxiliary approaches to the running game, including jet sweeps and quarterback runs. Tyreek Hill taking a handoff in motion may become a consistent thing this season if the league truly is intent on stopping cheat motion. The guy handing that ball off may also be more of a threat this season on the ground as Tagovailoa supposedly dropped weight to become more mobile, most likely to avoid sacks, but possibly to pick up a few extra first downs on the ground with his legs.

Where the Dolphins truly set themselves apart on the ground game is via their two extra blockers in Durham Smythe and Alec Ingold, both of whom are elite blockers for their respective positions. The two combined for 1,198 snaps in 2023, primarily as blocking options while also contributing a solid 485 yards combined. Both of their snap counts will be worth monitoring in 2024 as the Dolphins offseason moves seem intent on moving away ever so slightly from each. Jonnu Smith will assuredly soak up some of Smythe’s snap count as a better receiving option at tight end; he could possibly take some of Ingold’s snaps in the H-Back role, as well. Couple Smith’s arrival with an apparent intention to leverage a third wide receiver more often, and both blocking specialists are likely to see less work this year. With that, though, could come a drop in rushing efficiency in favor of an uptick in the passing game, which is something Miami will need to weigh throughout the year.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Dolphins Pass Defense

Jul 28, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) works out during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The hiring of Vic Fangio in 2023 signified a two-year commitment required for Fangio to overhaul Miami’s defense to fit his zone-heavy scheme. This expectedly resulted in struggles in 2023 but unexpectedly led to Fangio’s departure from the organization this offseason. As a result, the two-year commitment was cut short and the defensive overhaul was once again set into motion, this time with the hiring of the up-and-coming Anthony Weaver. The coach joins the Dolphins after a few years with the Ravens, where he was integral in the development of multiple pass rushers and a defense as a whole that consistently was amongst the NFL’s best.

In Miami, Weaver is going to need to find a way to get the best out of a secondary which has seen some major changes this offseason. Veterans Xavien Howard (CB), Brandon Jones (S), and DeShon Elliott (S) all were let go in favor of Jordan Poyer (S), Marcus Maye (S), and Kendall Fuller (CB). Both Poyer and Maye are towards the end of their careers but can still succeed if put in the proper scenario while Fuller still has plenty of juice left as one of the league’s better No. 2 cornerbacks. And in the Dolphins' defense, that is what Fuller will be called upon to do, with future Hall of Famer Jalen Ramsey manning the other corner role. Ramsey is also set to turn 30 this year but his skillset has yet to show major signs of diminishing while his veteran savvy often lets him goad opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. Behind him is another superstar in waiting in Jevon Holland. He's one of those rare breeds at safety who can play anywhere on the field and in any role. You need a ball hawk? You need someone to fit the run? Holland can do it and for that, he is on the precipice of being considered one of the league’s best defensive backs. Rounding out their unit are Kader Kohou and Nik Needham, who are each above-average nickels providing for a secondary with plenty of firepower but some vulnerabilities.

Where the pass defense may struggle most though is in getting to the passer. Both of the Dolphins' starting edge rushers are working back from season-ending injuries in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. The latter is the far superior and more promising pass rusher of the two but their availability and general abilities may be limited as they work back into form. This means veteran Emmanuel Ogbah as well as a pair of rookies in Chop Robinson and Mohamed Komara will be expected to step up. Ogbah provides a solid option as a player with eight years of experience and 42.5 sacks to show for it. The rookies join him as very low floor players with very high ceilings. Each are well undersized for their respective roles but showed an exceptional ability to get after the quarterback at the collegiate level. This is set to put even more pressure on the Dolphins’ most important defensive lineman who had a career year in 2023, Zach Sieler.

RATING: 👏👏👏

Dolphins Rush Defense

Jul 28, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler (92) wears his helmet during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Zach Sieler is going to have to own the line of scrimmage this season if the Dolphins hope to compete at all against the run. This is in response to the loss of elite defensive tackle, Christian Wilkins, who leaves a massive void in Miami. Both physically and mentally imposing, Wilkins’ abilities against the run, pass, and in occupying multiple blockers was the centerpiece to most of the success the Dolphins have had on defense the past few seasons. That’s precisely why Sieler has become so important, and luckily for Miami, he seems to improve yearly. Now in 2024, Sieler must maintain his ascension or else the Dolphins' run defense may just go the way of the 2023 Cowboys.

The Dolphins did try to fill Wilkins’ absence in the aggregate, however. The soon-to-be 38-year-old Calais Campbell joins the defensive line, as does the stout nose tackle Teair Tart. Neither will be expected to be TFL machines or to affect the passing game all that much but instead be space occupiers that allow Miami’s linebackers and smaller defensive ends to remain clean. And those smaller defensive ends will be a major concern as the Dolphins' issues in the trenches on offense look set to duplicate on defense. Expect teams to test the will of the Dolphins on the ground early and often in order to soak up clock and consistently move the ball down the field on what may be the weakest unit on an otherwise solid defense.

That solid defense moniker does extend to the box where the Dolphins will go through yet another major change. What essentially was a player swap saw the Seahawks sign longtime Dolphin Jerome Baker and in return, the Dolphins signed three-year Seattle starter Jordyn Brooks. Over the past three seasons, Brooks has accounted for 456 total tackles. Baker may be the better all-around linebacker, but Brooks is clearly the better run-stuffing linebacker and is set to be a key factor in the Dolphins' ability to stop exactly that this season. He will likely be flanked by David Long and/or Anthony Walker, both of whom are also better on the ground than against the pass. This all screams Wilkins replacement strategy as the Dolphins are leaning on run specialists in the trenches AND at linebacker to make up for the loss of one of the league’s better players.

RATING: 👏

Dolphins Special Teams

Miami Dolphins place kicker Jason Sanders (7) is congratulated by teammates after kicking the game-winning field goal against the Dallas Cowboys during an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Dec. 24, 2023. / Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

In 2020, Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders was named First-Team All-Pro after nailing 36 of 39 Field Goals, eight of nine from 50+, and 36/36 Extra Points. Over the past three seasons his Field Goal % has dropped over 10%, he has missed five extra points, and is nine of 19 from 50+. Still a Top-16 kicker in the NFL, there are some questions about Sanders’ reliability heading into 2024. In the same season that Sanders earned his All-Pro nod, so did the then-Patriots and now-Dolphins punter Jake Bailey. He is coming off a solid season where he grossed 45.7 and netted 40.7 yards on the rare occasion he had to punt and should be viewed as a solid field flipper in 2024.

Where the Dolphins' special teams jumps from the middle of the road to a borderline top-tier unit is via the return game. With the entrance of the new kickoff rule and the skillsets that the Dolphins boast (specifically at WR and RB), they are set to be a major problem this upcoming season. One-time All-Pro Braxton Berrios remains a dangerous weapon on both punt and kick return when called upon, but he may not see much action in the latter this season. Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, etc. all seem like players who would dominate in the league’s new kickoff rules and alter the outcome of multiple games via that role. And if not them, lurking is the one player in league history that could have given Devin Hester a run for the GOAT Returner title if he remained in the role…Tyreek Hill.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Dolphins Record

FLOOR: 8-9, CEILING: 13-4, PREDICTION: 10-7

We know what the Dolphins' offense is: it’s among the best in the league and filled with game-breakers that their quarterback is more than capable of getting the ball too. The defense is a little iffier as it is to some extent aged and yet unproven but with an upside to be a Top-10 unit. All of that adds up to a unit with a high floor but a ceiling that can only be hit if they can answer questions. Can you consistently win on the road? Can you win in adverse weather? And most importantly, can you close out a season? The first two questions can be answered in the positive but until the same happens to the third, the Dolphins will sit firmly in the realm of good teams that aren’t quite in the conversation of great.

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Published Aug 8, 2024|Modified Aug 8, 2024

HANS A. HANSEN LLL