2024 AFC East Preview: Scouting the New England Patriots

The Buffalo Bills' road to a sixth-straight postseason appearance goes through the AFC East. Here's an in-depth breakdown of the New England Patriots.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Aug 1, 2024

Jul 24, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) stretches during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

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Each week of the 2024 NFL season, I’ll be releasing a new edition of my Matchup Preview Series. That series is a comprehensive preview of how the Buffalo Bills match up against their opponent that week. Leading up to that, I’ll be leveraging the same format to preview all four teams in the AFC East.

These previews will look at five components of each team: Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Special Teams. Each section concludes with my patented 👏 scale which ranges from (Best) to (Worst). The post culminates with a Floor, Ceiling, and Prediction of the team’s 2024 record.

First up, the New England Patriots.

Patriots Pass Offense

Jul 26, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (14) throws a pass during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

For the third time since Tom Brady’s departure in 2020, the New England Patriots are hitting the reset button at quarterback. Mac Jones has been shipped to Jacksonville, Jacoby Brissett has made his return to New England, and the Patriots spent the third overall pick on North Carolina signal-caller Drake Maye. Brissett’s mid-floor, low-ceiling approach provides New England with a capable starting quarterback poised to lead a team that may surprise some people this season. Now, that surprise may be good or may be bad as far as Patriots faithful are concerned, but it pales in comparison to the primary goal of 2024: see SOME promise from Maye. That may come in the form of practice reps, publicized perceptions from 1 Patriot Place, or even live reps, but make no mistake: Maye’s development is the primary focus of this season.

Regardless of who is throwing the ball, the Patriots' 2024 quarterback will have a much better stable of weapons to dish the ball to than New England’s 2023 quarterbacks did. Veteran trio Kendrick Bourne (WR), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), and K.J. Osborn (WR) provide a similar floor to that of Jacoby Brissett while a trio of young receivers signifies a ceiling more closely resembling Maye’s. Amongst them is second-year WR Demario ‘Pop’ Douglas, who at points last season was the Patriots' best offensive player. An explosive player that can play from the slot or out wide, Douglas is the type of player who you scheme to get the ball to and watch him work. This season he is joined by two promising rookies, Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, whom the Patriots took in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. Polk gives New England upside as a developmental X receiver while Baker’s ball-tracking skills make him a unique asset. You add the aforementioned six receivers to an impressive tight end duo in Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper and dare we say, the Patriots have a plethora of good receiving options?

The question then becomes, is their offensive line good enough to buy their quarterback enough time? The answer to that is one of concern caused by far too many position switches outside of center David Andrews. The first such example of this lies at left tackle where ex-Steeler Chukwuma Okorafor and rookie Caedan Wallace are jockeying for the starting role. The problem is that Okorafor has two professional snaps at LT and Wallace had one non-RT snap in his collegiate career. Next to the winner of that battle will likely be Sidy Sow, who is making the professional switch from RG to LG to fill in for Cole Strange as he continues to rehab a 2023 knee injury. On the other side of the line, Mike Onwenu very well may need to drop inside from right tackle down to right guard on a temporary basis until Sow can return to the right side of the line. This then exposes a hole at right tackle that is likely to be filled by reserve Calvin Anderson or the loser of the Okorafor versus Wallace battle. So, to answer the original question, can this OL buy their quarterback time? Probably not.

RATING: 👏👏

Patriots Rush Offense

Jul 26, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) signs an autograph during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

On paper, the Patriots seem poised to be one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL while understanding their upside is average production. In order to reach that upside, they will need to rely on Rhamondre Stevenson to catapult them there. As recently as 2022, Stevenson was being discussed as a borderline top-five running back following a 1,000+ yard campaign where he averaged 5.0 yards per attempt. That discussion was short-lived, however, as following an injury-riddled 2023 campaign that included a massive drop in production, serious questions swirl around Stevenson’s future. If his mix of deceptive agility and power rushing hit this season those discussions will quickly cease, but if they don’t there are very few options to take heat off the Patriots quarterbacks in 2024.

That is unless you still believe in Antonio Gibson, have wild thoughts on Kevin Harris, or think Terrell Jennings has the makings of the next Priest Holmes. Of those three the only one with a currently tangible upside is Gibson, who stormed into the league in 2020 but by 2022 was on a major downturn, culminating with just 265 rushing yards in 2023. It is possible that a change of scenery was needed for Gibson and that simply getting away from the Commanders will jump his production, but his long history of lower body injuries seems to signify his career is closer to finished than restarting. Because of the lack of explosive depth at running back, don’t be surprised if you see your fair share of push-passes and/or jet sweeps to the likes of Demario Douglas to prop up the run game while Jacoby Brissett and/or Drake Maye are expected to be on the move much more than you’d want them to be at the respective stages in their careers.

All the question marks surrounding the Patriots' ball carriers only increase the concerns with their offensive line. With New England lacking a real consistent threat on the ground, teams are likely to approach them with light boxes and rely on a five-man box to confuse their position-challenged offensive line. If this strategy works early and often and teams are able to drop six into complex coverages, then issues with the run will quickly spill over into what could be a promising passing game. New England desperately needs either its offensive line to gel quickly or its running backs to surprise everyone or else they run the risk of falling from a one-dimensional offense to a zero-dimensional one.

RATING: 👏

Patriots Pass Defense

Jul 24, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) walks to the practice field during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Patriots' pass defense won’t just be good, but elite. Those reasons are predicated on Jerod Mayo and DeMarcus Covington combining to be even 75% of the defensive mind of Bill Belichick. For all the late career criticism Belichick received as he closed out his tenure in New England, one thing remained constant: his defense was really good. In each of the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons, they would finish Top-10 in Defensive DVOA despite multiple major injuries and while dealing with a division and conference fraught with high-powered offenses. Mayo and Covington now take over a team with talent to burn on the defensive side of the ball and their ability to unlock that is paramount for the 2024 Patriots' success.

That talent is highlighted by a secondary which boats two studs and three above-average players at their respective positions. Representing the studs are one of the league’s best safeties, Kyle Dugger, and the uber-high potential cornerback Christian Gonzalez. For Dugger, his combined ability to deliver bone crushing hits and defend the ball in the air make him one of those unique players that is a weapon anywhere on the field. As for Gonzalez, his impressive rookie campaign was cut short, but his instincts, physical abilities, and football IQ provide all the makings of a player who could earn an All-Pro nod by season’s end. Outside those two are CB2 Jonathan Jones, intriguing nickel Marcus Jones, and the ever-versatile safety Jabrill Peppers. In the NFL you won’t find many fivesomes more talented and unique than the one New England will trot out week in and week out.

In front of them, the Patriots also boast a pass rush that, when healthy, can be deadly. The key to their effectiveness will be Matt Judon, who has been a force since joining the Patriots in 2021. Over that span, Judon has averaged 0.84 sacks per game; for context, the All-World Micah Parsons has averaged 0.81 sacks per game over the same span. After him the Patriots must hope for a speedy recovery from blood clots by the impressive Christian Barmore, who has improved year over year since entering the NFL and represents an interior force capable of moving quarterbacks out of the pocket early at an impressive rate. Both he and Judon, if healthy, will be joined by a solid stable of linemen including Davon Godchaux, Joshua Uche, Deatrich Wise, Keion White, and Armon Watts. This is a defensive line that can dominate and when coupled with a talented secondary will be a tough challenge for any opposing passing offenses.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Patriots Rush Defense

Jul 30, 2022; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots outside linebacker Matt Judon (9) signs autographs at the Patriots training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Oddly enough, the Patriots rush defense has a chance to be as good, if not better than their pass defense. In 2023, they led the league in rushing yards per attempt against with a minuscule 3.3 yards as a unit that was much greater than the sum of its parts. In 2024, Jerod Mayo will look to drive a similar result with some slight wrinkles to the defensive concepts Belichick employed in New England for 24 years. Assuming he is successful in doing that, the pieces would be in place for the new sideline boss to recreate something akin to what the Cleveland Browns did in 2023 and generate a path to stun the NFL.

To get there, New England would need more of the same from their linebacker duo of Jahlani Tavai and Ja’Whaun Bentley. Each finished last season with 100+ tackles and 35+ defensive stops as one of the more underappreciated linebacker pairs in the NFL. Both Tavai and Bentley play better closer to the line of scrimmage and should continue to see much of their work in that realm this season as New England can rely on the defensive backs behind them to pick up the slack in coverage. To that end, both Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers possess the ability to play in the box and can do so as a pseudo LB3 based on opposing looks. Providing New England with the equivalent of four off-ball linebackers on the field at any given time, whether it be a running back or a quarterback attempting to sneak out of the backfield for big gains doing so may be fruitless against this Patriots defense.

And escaping the backfield is no easy task. Patriots edge rushers Matt Judon and Joshua Uche are capable run defenders whilst the interior is where teams struggle mightily to move the ball on the ground against the Patriots. Christian Barmore’s abilities already speak for themselves while Davon Godchaux is an unheralded nose tackle that sees over 70% of his snaps take place in the A-Gap. The definition of a block soaker, the 330-pound Godchaux essentially provides New England with a 10 on-9 advantage in running situations. After Barmore and Godchaux there is a question mark though, where will Lawrence Guy’s snaps go? With Guy and his ~50% snap share no longer on the roster, someone will need to pick up the slack. The pieces are there, but who will seize the opportunity?

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Patriots Special Teams

Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots place kicker Chad Ryland (37) prepares to kick the winning field goal in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots' kicking game is a major question mark as their primary placekicker, Chad Ryland, is coming off a disastrous rookie campaign. While his 96% XP rate was acceptable, his 64% field goal rate resulted in 27 points being left on the board, 21 of which came within 50 yards. This led to the Patriots bringing in veteran Joey Slye to compete with Ryland, and he has a real chance of winning the job. For a team that may struggle to score points at times in 2024, a struggling kicking game could be the difference between a near .500 season and a five-win season. In the room with him is another second-year player in Bryce Baringer who by all accounts had a successful rookie season. The All-Rookie Punter, Baringer’s 40.8 Net Yards per Punt and 38.8% Inside the 20 Rate were veteran caliber numbers.

The return game is where the Patriots special teams make a massive jump. We know what Marcus Jones and Demario Douglas are capable of when they get in the open field and each of them project as problems in the return game. While there is less statistical evidence of the danger Douglas poses, Jones has the numbers and accolades to back up his perceived danger. In his rookie season he earned First Team All-Pro honors as a punt returner averaging 12.5 yards per return. Each of their skill sets will work against the punt and under the NFL’s new kickoff rule, expect them to be a nightmare.

RATING: 👏👏👏

Patriots Record

FLOOR: 5-12, CEILING: 9-8, PREDICTION: 7-10

The expectations for the Patriots should be low due primarily to their young coaching staff and inexperienced offense, but that doesn’t mean they can’t find success. If all goes right, their defense will finish top-five and their offense will do enough to keep them in most games. If all goes wrong, the defense will collapse without Belichick and the offense will resemble that of the 2023 New York Jets. In all honesty, none of that much matters as long as the coaching staff proves to be competent and Maye flashes signs of being the future. After all, the Patriots aren’t winning a Super Bowl THIS year.

Published Aug 1, 2024