2024 AFC East Preview: Scouting the New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills' road to a sixth-straight postseason appearance goes through the AFC East. Here's an in-depth breakdown of the New York Jets.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Aug 16, 2024

East Rutherford, NJ -- August 10, 2024 -- Aaron Rodgers at the end of the game as the Washington Commanders came to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets in the first preseason game of the 2024 season. The Jets topped the Commanders 20-17. / Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Each week of the 2024 NFL season, I’ll be releasing a new edition of my Matchup Preview Series. That series is a comprehensive preview of how the Buffalo Bills match up against their opponent that week. Leading up to that, I’ll be leveraging the same format to preview all four teams in the AFC East.

These previews will look at five components of each team: Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Special Teams. Each section concludes with my patented 👏 scale which ranges from (Best) to (Worst). The post culminates with a Floor, Ceiling, and Prediction of the team’s 2024 record.

The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins have already been covered, up next is the New York Jets.

Jets Pass Offense

Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

What Aaron Rodgers is this season will determine what the Jets are this season. As recently as 2021, Rodgers was playing at an elite level and even 70% of that form in 2024 would set the Jets up for success. Conversely, if Rodgers struggles with injuries or resembles his 2022 form, how far the Jets can go will be limited. His knowledge of the game and talent undoubtedly persist, but will the athletic limitations caused by his age restrict his ability to do enough for the Jets this year? Regardless, Rodgers and/or Tyrod Taylor project as massive upgrades over what the 2023 Jets got from Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle, suggesting that even in the worst-case scenario this season, New York should expect better production from the quarterback position.

Whether Rodgers or Taylor, the Jets quarterback will be armed with a solid arsenal of weapons in the passing game. The primary weapon in this regard will be third-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who has put up back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons despite bottom-five quarterback play. Wilson’s elite all-around skillset has made him a trendy pick to have a breakout season under the expectation of adequate quarterback play. Opposite him, the Jets hope to deploy Mike Williams, who, when healthy, projects as an upper-echelon WR2; he will likely be spelled by the adequate Allen Lazard this season. After those three wide receivers, the position room does become a bit sparse, with rookie Malachai Corley the only other intriguing option in the passing game. They will be paired with a solid tight end in Tyler Conklin and an elite receiving back in Breece Hall, however, which should provide options to attack at every level of the field.

But those options will only matter if New York’s offensive line significantly improves in 2024, and the Jets have taken the necessary steps to attempt to ensure that. The biggest of those steps heading into the season was the addition of future Hall of Famer Tyron Smith. A five-time All-Pro (including second-team honors in 2023), Smith will be expected to protect the blindside of the Jets quarterback, assuming he can stay on the field (something he's struggled with, last playing 16+ games in 2015). He will be flanked by ex-Raven John Simpson who while better in the run game is a more than adequate pass blocker. The offensive line rounds out with Morgan Moses at right tackle, Alijah Vera-Tucker at right guard, and Joe Tippmann at center, the latter bringing with him slight snapping concerns. On paper, this offensive line is one of the more complete units in the NFL, but age and injury concerns could cause this unit to be the fault in a Jets house of cards.

RATING: 👏👏👏

Jets Rush Offense

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Special running backs are a rare commodity in the modern NFL, but the Jets are in possession of one such player. Entering his third season, Breece Hall seems poised to take the next step and catapult himself from the great RB to the elite RB conversation. Hall accounted for 1,585 scrimmage yards in 2023, 994 yards coming on the ground despite the Jets ranking No. 28 in stuffed run plays at 23%. Now with what appears to be a capable quarterback and an offensive line built to provide him more consistent running lanes, the expectations are sky-high for Hall. New York’s last 1,000-yard runner was Chris Ivory in 2015; can Hall hit 1,000+ rushing yards and break that drought?

One thing that may prevent Hall from hitting that number is the feasible emergence of rookie running back Braelon Allen. The 6’1” 235lb bruiser out of Wisconsin brings with him a physical running style that complements Hall well and gives the Jets another legitimate option out of the backfield. This appears to be yet another upgrade for New York with Allen set to replace an aged Dalvin Cook from last season in the RB2 role. After Allen, 2024 fifth-rounder Isaiah Davis and 2023 fifth-rounder Israel Abanikanda are set to compete for RB3 as the emergency running back in the event of an injury to Hall or Allen. The running backs are set to produce the vast majority of production on the ground for the Jets with a handful of set sweeps sprinkled in via the likes of Garrett Wilson, Xavier Gipson, and Malachai Corley.

Where the Jets are expected to get little to no support on the ground is via their starting quarterback. Not only is Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear, but he also hasn’t topped 200 rushing yards or a 4.0 yards per attempt average since 2018. That means that in the event pressure is barreling down on Rodgers, the expectation will be a sack or a throwaway in the upcoming season. This is the only real limiting factor to what otherwise should be a dominant rushing attack. That being said, the domination is fully predicated on the offensive line staying healthy and gelling as a group. That, in turn, mitigates Rodgers’ lack of mobility and should open up holes both internally and externally for Hall and Allen.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Jets Pass Defense

Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

What has kept the Jets remotely competitive over the past couple of seasons projects to be a strength of theirs yet again in 2024. For all the criticism head coach Robert Saleh could have levied on him, his ability to facilitate a dominant defense, specifically against the pass, has been front and center during his tenure with the Jets. They have ranked third and sixth against the pass (via DVOA) in 2023 and 2022, respectively, while giving up just 34 passing touchdowns and factoring in 32 interceptions in the 34 games over that span. Questions will always swirl if a defense of that caliber can maintain its dominance year-over-year, but all things considered, there is no reason to bet against them in 2024.

Much of that is owed to the elite talent that New York possesses when defending the pass. This is headlined by two-time first-team All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner. In his two seasons in the NFL, he has been targeted a total of 141 times, giving up a completion percentage of 54.6% and just two touchdowns. His elite size and instincts coupled with hand-to-hand technique we haven’t seen since Darrelle Revis makes Gardner arguably the most complete corner in the NFL. Joining him at corner are CB2 DJ Reed and nickel CB Michael Carter II, both of whom are amongst the league's best in their respective roles. This provides the Jets with an elite trio of cornerbacks who should help prop up the lesser part of their secondary, the safeties. Chuck Clark, who is returning from an ACL injury, and Tony Adams, who had a solid first season as a starter in 2023, are set to man the two starting roles there. Their ceiling is a Top-10 unit but realistic expectations should have them closer to a middling duo. Despite that, the Jets' five starting defensive backs should make a case by season’s end as being the best secondary in the NFL.

But in order to reach their upside they are going to need a pass rush, which presents an issue. Outside of the perennial Pro Bowler Quinnen Williams, where are the Jets expecting to generate pressure from? Haason Reddick is the expectation but until he actually reports to the team, his status will remain unknown. That shifts reliance to Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, and Michael Clemons who have 78 combined games of NFL experience and 16.0 sacks to show for it. Johnson is by far the most promising of the bunch, coming off a 7.5 sack season that earned him his first trip to the Pro Bowl, but more needs to be seen from the young pass rusher. As for Clemons and McDonald, 'depth' or 'role-specific' seem to be the proper descriptors when referring to them, causing concern in regard to generating consistent pass rush.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Jets Rush Defense

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets' run defense has complemented their elite pass defense well over the past couple of seasons. In 2023, they ranked 14th in Run Defense DVOA and in 2022 they ranked eighth. While due in large part to an elite force up front and an underappreciated duo of linebackers, another major reason for their success often goes undiscussed: strategy. Due to the Jets' ability to win up front, they blitz less than most teams, finishing second lowest in Blitz Rate at 16.3% (IND – 15.7%) in 2023 while being the only team below triple digits with 98 blitzes. As a result, the Jets' back seven is often in optimal position to clean up any runners that may sneak out of the backfield. When talent meets proper strategy, the result is often success, something the Jets exemplify on defense.

Defining that description are C.J. Mosely and Quincy Williams, the Jets' dynamic linebacker duo. Now a grizzled 32-year-old vet, Mosely has five second-team All-Pro nods on his resume and has produced 150+ tackles in each of the past three seasons. Not the dynamic player he was earlier in his career, Mosely is still an above-average linebacker whose career seems poised to go much the trajectory of a Demario Davis or London Fletcher. Next to him is the constantly cooking Quincy Williams who is coming off a season where he earned his first career accolade, a first-team All-Pro nomination. A hard-hitting and relentless player, Williams shined in 2023, often initiating contact with runners at or behind the line of scrimmage, finishing third in tackles for loss (15) amongst off-ball linebackers. With both Mosely and Williams returning to the Jets this season, there is little reason to believe that a regression is set to occur against the run for the Jets.

Further preventing that is a defensive line anchored by Quinnen Williams. The brother of Quincy, Quinnen took a massive step forward in 2022 and hasn’t looked back. An exceptional pass rusher, Quinnen Williams also excels at not only handling the run but also blockers in front of him. As a result, this game wrecker frees up his fellow defensive linemen and linebackers from both single and double teams. This year he will be paired with Javon Kinlaw, who struggled to reach his potential in San Francisco but will look to progress with the Jets. At 6’5” 319lb, he grades out as a potential elite defensive tackle, which led to him being selected 14th overall in 2020. If (a big if) he realizes his potential for the Jets in 2024, what is already a dominant defensive interior will have the potential to be considered in a similar manner to the Jets' corners and linebackers, amongst the league's best.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Jets Special Teams

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

In building their roster, the Jets didn’t concern themselves with age, something that extends to their kicking game. Kicker Greg Zuerlein and punter Thomas Morstead are each north of 36, but each are still more than adequate players at their respective positions. Zuerlein is coming off of one of the best seasons of his career, drilling 92.1% of his field goals while missing just one kick from 50+. He had very few opportunities to attempt extra points (16) but with more chances expected in 2024, he may be in line for an All-Pro caliber season. As for Morstead, he is coming off a season where he led the league in punts with 99, 38th most in league history, yet still generated an impressive 41.7 net yards per punt.

On the opposite side of the spectrum in age, but a similar one in talent to Zuerlein and Morstead is return man Xavier Gipson. In his rookie season, he had a solid 23.2 yards per kick return and 9.7 yards per punt return including a 65-yard game-winning TD return against the Bills in Week 1. Possessing 4.42 speed and elite agility, Gipson was always going to be an issue on punt return but with the new kick return rules, can be an X-Factor for a promising Jets team.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Jets Record

FLOOR: 6-11, CEILING: 13-4, PREDICTION: 10-7

On paper, the Jets' 22 offensive and defensive starters might be the best in the league, but NFL games aren’t played on paper. On offense, injury history is a very real concern and on defense, injury luck rolling over from last season seems unlikely. A lack of solid depth across the board makes this even more concerning. Add to that the near-complete unknown that is Aaron Rodgers and getting a grasp on what the Jets will be in 2024 is difficult. They can reach their ceiling via exceptional health and a resurgent Rodgers, the result of which will be an AFC East title and legitimately competing for a Super Bowl. They hit the floor if injuries begin to mount, and Rodgers completely flames out in what is his first real season for the Jets. What’s more likely? Somewhere in between where Rodgers underwhelms but is solid enough to facilitate a solid offense and stingy defense that has enough talent to survive a few nicks and bruises.

The Jets SHOULD make the playoffs this year, nay, they MUST make the playoffs this year. If they don’t, a full reset will take place this offseason.

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