2024 AFC East Preview: Scouting the Buffalo Bills

The new-look Buffalo Bills enter a pivotal season with their eyes set on a fifth straight division title and a larger prize past that.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Aug 22, 2024

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Each week of the 2024 NFL season, I’ll be releasing a new edition of my Matchup Preview Series. That series is a comprehensive preview of how the Buffalo Bills match up against their opponent that week. Leading up to that, I’ll be leveraging the same format to preview all four teams in the AFC East.

These previews will look at five components of each team: Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Special Teams. Each section concludes with my patented 👏 scale which ranges from (Best) to (Worst). The post culminates with a Floor, Ceiling, and Prediction of the team’s 2024 record.

With the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets already covered, the culmination of this series looks at none other than the Buffalo Bills.

Bills Pass Offense

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There is perhaps no single player more important to their respective team in 2024 than quarterback Josh Allen. Since being drafted in 2018, Allen has been the focal point of the Buffalo Bills offense, but since 2020 has been able to lean on All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In that span, the Bills finished as a top-six scoring offense each season on their way to four consecutive AFC East titles and at least one playoff victory. With Diggs now in Houston, Allen will be tasked with carrying a mostly young and unproven supporting cast to a similar outcome in what will be a pivotal season for the Bills. Yet optimism remains high that the league leader in touchdowns over the past four seasons (174) is one of those rare NFL players capable of doing just that.

There is some significant potential in the passing game that could help Allen this season, beginning with Dalton Kincaid. The second-year tight end appears poised for a breakout season after amassing 73 receptions, 673 yards, and a catch rate of 80.2% in an impressive rookie season. All signs point to Kincaid being the Bills primary pass catcher in 2024 while a handful of other players will be expected to contribute. That primarily includes Curtis Samuel (WR), Khalil Shakir (WR), Keon Coleman (WR), Dawson Knox (TE), and James Cook (RB). Samuel and Shakir project to be players who consistently win in the intermediate game and pick up yards with their legs after the catch. Coleman is set to be a boom-or-bust boundary receiver the Bills will rely on to win jump balls down the field and/or in the endzone. As for Knox, the expectation is he will play a pivotal role in a 12-personnel-heavy offense, particularly up the seam while James Cook will be relied on to be a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield. That’s a lot of options for offensive coordinator Joe Brady to play with and optimize, but all ones that if leveraged properly could provide unique advantages for an offense led by a quarterback like Josh Allen.

Much like the major changes at receiver, there are also a couple of alterations in the trenches, as well. Center Mitch Morse was cut in the offseason and has since signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars, prompting left guard Connor McGovern to move to center. The transition hasn’t been particularly smooth as the center/quarterback exchange has looked sloppy at points this offseason. Despite that, the Bills' offensive line appears to be one of the league’s more consistent units heading into 2024, anchored by one of the NFL’s better left tackles in Dion Dawkins. Add the ever-improving Spencer Brown at right tackle, the promising O’Cyrus Torrence at right guard, and adequate left guard David Edwards, and Buffalo is solid in the offensive trenches. Reducing concerns up front further, Allen’s 4.0% sack rate was the lowest in the NFL last season as the quarterback cemented himself as an elite avoider of sacks.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense

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Josh Allen’s importance to the Bills offense only begins with the passing game, but it surely propagates to the rushing attack. Since 2018, Allen ranks second in rushing touchdowns (53) and 20th in rushing yards (3,611) as an elite dual-threat quarterback. Via a unique combination of power, agility, and deceptive speed, Allen’s abilities on the ground are something opponents must account for on a weekly basis. This includes maintaining lane integrity during options, rushing the passer with containment in mind, and at times dedicating a spy to mirror Allen. As a result of all this extra attention paid to Allen on the ground, additional lanes of attack open up through the air or on the ground for others in the Bills offense. Still only 28, there is little reason to expect a shift in Allen’s mentality heading into 2024 and nearly as little reason to expect a major shift in strategy for the Bills.

The phrase nearly was added for a reason; the Bills' potential to be exceptionally efficient via the traditional ground game may result in fewer touches for Allen. James Cook enters his third season following an impressive sophomore campaign that earned him his first Pro Bowl nomination. This was a result of Cook finishing sixth in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,567) with 72% of that production coming on the ground. Cook flashed the ability to go downhill when necessary but mostly relied on impressive acceleration and vision to produce 4.7 yards per attempt. Forced into bell-cow duties in 2023 due to an injury to Damien Harris and the effects of Father Time on Latavius Murray, Buffalo looked to upgrade RB2 in 2024. This led to them selecting Kentucky running back Ray Davis with the 128th pick in this year’s draft. More a thumper than Cook, Davis’ aggressive running style appears to be the perfect complement to Cook and is one of many reasons he is expected to eat slightly into Cook’s touch share this season.

But the Bills rushing attack isn’t expected to stop at Allen, Cook, and Davis, with a dark horse candidate set to receive a significant number of touches on the ground. That player is wide receiver and, at times, college running back Curtis Samuel. The theory behind Samuel being an integral part of the run game comes from two key pieces of evidence: Samuel’s usage in 2020 and Samuel’s usage in training camp. In 2020, Samuel saw his highest usage out of the backfield, racking up 41 carries and 200 yards for the Carolina Panthers when his offensive coordinator was…now Bills offensive play-caller Joe Brady. As for his usage in camp, there were plenty of occurrences where Samuel lined up in the backfield alongside Allen and factored into the rushing attack. By no means is Samuel, who is currently dealing with turf toe (8/22/24), guaranteed to factor into the Bills' rushing attack, but all signs point to it being a very real possibility.

RATING: 👏👏👏👏

Bills Pass Defense

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In 2017, Buffalo added Tre White (CB), Micah Hyde (S), and Jordan Poyer (S) to its secondary. Between that season and 2023, each of them would receive at least one All-Pro nomination as a trio of players that dominated the league over that span. But as with most players, age and/or injuries have caught up with all of them. White has appeared in just 12 games since December 2021 because of separate ACL and Achilles tears. Hyde suffered a significant neck injury in 2022, playing only two games that year and has since struggled to recapture the level of play that made him one of the league’s best safeties. As for Poyer, multiple minor injuries and a decline in his level of play led to him seeking alternative opportunities this offseason, electing to sign with the Miami Dolphins. With the three horsemen of the Bills' secondary now out of Buffalo, a minor renaissance is underway for what has been one of Buffalo’s most consistent units for nearly a decade.

Quietly, the departure of those three beloved Bills occurred while a group of talented players remained in Buffalo. The headliner of that group is arguably the league’s best nickel corner, Taron Johnson, who earned second-team All-Pro honors in 2023 as the Bills' Swiss army knife on defense. A pseudo-linebacker, Johnson excels against both the pass and run as the key that makes the Bills' defensive engine run. At the outside corner positions, the Bills also have plenty of talent and arguably their best cornerback duo since Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby or even Nate Clements and Antoine Winfield. That duo consists of Rasul Douglas, who played like an All-Pro in his 10 games with the Bills last season, and arguably the most underappreciated player in the NFL in the rock-solid Christian Benford. It’s that trio of corners that keep confidence high in Buffalo despite major question marks at safety. Veteran Taylor Rapp is the only player currently locked in as a starter with Damar Hamlin hanging onto the other starting position due in large part to injuries to newcomers Mike Edwards and rookie Cole Bishop.

Those questions at safety will persist until proven otherwise, putting extra pressure on the Bills' pass rush to get home quickly. Enter fourth-year defensive end Greg Rousseau, who will look to take a major step in his development in 2024. The lengthy defensive end has proven himself to be a borderline elite run defender but has since put on plenty of muscle mass and has demonstrated a dominant pass-rush mentality at least this preseason. He will likely be paired up with A.J. Epenesa, who led all defensive linemen in passes defended last season (eight). Those two should provide an adequate rush off the edge while Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones have the potential to provide a dominant rush up the interior. Factor in solid rotational pieces that include veteran Von Miller, Dawuane Smoot, and Austin Johnson as well as rookies Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter, and the Bills' pass rush has a high floor and an even higher ceiling.

RATING: 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense

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The Bills ended their 2023 campaign by trotting out an injured Tyrel Dodson and borderline retired A.J. Klein at linebacker. Injuries ate that unit alive last season with Buffalo hoping to buck that trend in 2024, but that isn’t in the cards. In practice on August 13th, arguably the Bills' best defensive player in Matt Milano tore his biceps and is projected to be out until at least late November. This is a major blow to a Bills defense that had to survive their fair share of injuries last season. The loss of Milano places extra pressure on head coach Sean McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to find creative ways to lead their young defense toward success. Luckily for them, they seem to have built a unit fraught with depth.

The key to this new approach will heavily rely on second-year starter Terrel Bernard, who is coming off a season where he produced staggering numbers including 143 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Amongst the league’s best linebackers statistically in 2023, Bernard showed an exceptional ability to rely on instinct and quickness to bypass much larger blockers and consistently bring down opponents at or near the line of scrimmage. For the majority of this season, he will be asked to do more of the same without Milano. Instead, he is likely to be paired with second-year linebacker Dorian Williams or one of two veterans in Nicholas Morrow or Deion Jones. None of those three will remotely impact the game in the same way as Milano but each does bring value as a more than adequate option at the position. Further depth is likely to include one of Baylon Spector or Joe Andreessen, each of whom are uniquely promising and, in turn, provide Buffalo with what should be multiple quality contingency plans at the position in 2024.

While the Bills linebackers, as well as Taron Johnson, will be asked to clean up free runners, it's their defensive line that will be asked to do the heavy lifting against the run. While healthy in 2023, both Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones were proving to be menaces against the run, combining for 25 tackles (nine of which were for a loss) in the first four weeks of 2023. Jones would be hurt in Week 5 and while Oliver would continue to have an impressive season, Buffalo would struggle to find any real consistent play opposite him for the remainder of the campaign. In the offseason, they would bring in veteran one-tech Austin Johnson and draft Duke defensive tackle DeWayne Carter in the third round. Both Johnson and Carter will be employed as rotational options at defensive tackle while providing solid fallback options in case of another injury. This sets Buffalo up for success to be a force against opponents on the interior of the defensive line and possibly control the trenches on both the defensive and offensive sides of the ball.

RATING: 👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams

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Tyler Bass has an All-Pro skillset but has a concerning confidence issue. In the playoffs last season, he was just two-of-five on field goals inside the 50, dropping his career postseason field goal percentage in the range to a terrible 64.3%. Training camp has been a struggle for him, and despite his demonstrated abilities, very real questions loom regarding his long-term feasibility. Along with him, there are general concerns with punter Sam Martin who, at times, struggled last season and remains an uninspiring option as a punter for the Bills. The good news for Buffalo is that it rarely calls on its punter, but when it does in 2024, there will be danger involved.

The concerns at kicker and punter extend to the return game where Buffalo has no proven option in either return role. Kick return looks likely to be a player like Ty Johnson or K.J. Hamler while punt return may be won out by rookie and backup cornerback Daequan Hardy. In a year where return rules seem likely to significantly benefit elite return men, the Bills are severely lacking any player who, at this time, invokes fear in opponents.

RATING: 👏👏

Bills Record

FLOOR: 9-8, CEILING: 13-4, PREDICTION: 11-6

The “imminent downfall” of the Buffalo Bills has been severely overblown. The national narrative seems driven by a combined ideal that the loss of Stefon Diggs cannot be overcome and that the Bills “barely” made the playoffs in 2023. Well, the Bills were the No. 2 seed in 2023 with most of their success late in the season occurring despite Diggs. Still, there are more concerns on this roster than years prior, dropping their floor and reducing their margin for error. That being said, they still have Allen and a slew of other promising players, so until proven otherwise, they are the team to beat in the AFC East and a real threat to make a run toward their ultimate goal, a Lombardi Trophy.

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