Bills vs. Jets NFL Week 6 Preview: Get Right Game for Whom?

The Buffalo Bills head to New Jersey to take on the Jets in a critical AFC East matchup.

Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills matchup with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups; Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections; “Why Buffalo Will Lose”, “Why Buffalo Will Win”, and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s 6th edition of this analysis for the Bills Week 6 clash with the New York Jets. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Jets Pass Defense

For two consecutive weeks the Bills passing attack has been stuck in a rut with very few indications that they will find their way out anytime soon. At quarterback, Josh Allen is just 25/59 (42.4%) for 311 yards and 1 touchdown, an abysmal stat line for a quarterback of his caliber. At receiver, Bills players have 9 drops in the past two weeks after having just 1 during the first three weeks. The Offensive Line has also struggled allowing their quarterback to be pressured on 29% of his drop backs against the Ravens and Texans. Considering there are just 4 quarterbacks this season with a pressure rate over 29% and 5 quarterbacks with more than 9 dropped passes, holistically Buffalo’s passing attack has simply been awful in their past two games. They will need to turn that around quickly and begin that process against a team they have historically struggled to throw the ball against, their division rival the New York Jets.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

The New York Jets have a handful of problems as well which reached a boiling point this week when they fired Head Coach Robert Saleh replacing him with Jeff Ulbrich who will now be calling plays for the defense. The defense was good under Saleh though, ranking 12th overall but 7th against the pass via DVOA (-8.7%). Much of this success is owed to their corner duo which includes two-time All-Pro Sauce Gardner and arguably the NFL’s best CB2, DJ Reed. It’s Reed who has been more impressive this season blanketing whichever receiver comes into his purview allowing a Passer Rating against of just 39.6. Each will have an advantage against whichever receiver Buffalo trots out wide against them. Inside gets a little tricker for the Jets who will likely be without their stud nickel corner, Michael Carter II. Assuming Buffalo has one of Khalil Shakir or Curtis Samuel this is one of the primary spots they should attack while also leaning into the mismatch their running backs and tight ends will generate against the Jets safeties and linebackers. It isn’t a great matchup for Buffalo, but there is some obvious weak points Buffalo should be able to take advantage of.

Nov 19, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Because of the advantages/disadvantages each team has at the skill positions this matchup will likely be won in the trenches. As mentioned previously, the Bills offensive line has struggled the past few weeks with matters made worse by the ramped-up blitz packages of the Ravens and Texans who blitzed 9 and 10 times respectively. Those extra players have overwhelmed Buffalo’s pass protection and with no open hot to hit has caused major issues for Josh Allen. While the Jets may not be a heavy blitzing team, they do have a player that excels in that role, 2023 All-Pro Quincy Williams. Williams is blitzing almost three times per game this season and has the athleticism and strength to cause issues for opposing quarterbacks, and likely will be chasing down Josh Allen for most of the game on Monday night. Outside of the danger that Williams presents, the primary focus for the Bills offensive line will be to identify Will McDonald who has 6.0 sacks this season and is consistently winning with exceptional speed. He has been the star of the Jets front through five weeks with another nine players having at least 1.0 sacks. On paper the trenches are a pretty fair matchup but with recent trends the advantage must go to the New York Jets.

ADVANTAGE: Jets 👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Jets Rush Defense

Nov 19, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs with the ball against New York Jets linebacker Quincy Williams (56). / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Injuries look like they are set to decimate Buffalo’s rushing attack. Not only does it appear Buffalo’s RB1, James Cook, will miss Monday’s game with a toe injury but Josh Allen’s hand injury persists and has clearly reduced his interest in engaging in contact while running. Both injuries call into question the efficacy of Buffalo’s ground attack in a game where they will need to lean into complementary football in order to deal with the Jets defense. As a result, Buffalo is likely to dial up designed QB runs, despite Allen’s multiple injuries, while giving an increased workload to veteran Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis. There are still ways Buffalo can win on the ground but if they can’t Buffalo’s already struggling offense could be in for a really long day against a really good Jets defense.

But it’s also a Jets defense which has struggled against the run ranking 24th in run defense DVOA (-1.8%) despite giving up just 4.2 yards per carry. There are some reinforcements on the horizon for New York though as linebacker CJ Mosley is set to return as early as this week, but if he can’t go the Jets will continue to roll with Jamien Sherwood. Sherwood has played well in Mosley’s absence though, racking up a team best 40 tackles as well as 3 tackles for loss. Sherwood coupled with Quincy Williams provides the Jets with an incredibly aggressive duo at linebacker that likes to play downhill and fill running lane quickly. While misdirection in the backfield can present issues for the Jets linebackers, their athleticism often allows them to rebound and will be a key part of this game. The two have the ability to mitigate Josh Allen’s legs while simultaneously containing interior runs by the Bills offense.

Nov 6, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (95) / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Jets defensive line also presents major issues for opposing rushing attacks, primarily caused by one of the NFL’s best defensive tackles, Quinnen Williams. Since his ascension in 2022, Williams has been one of the most dominant forces in the NFL and consistently demands double teams by the opposition. He may be more than the trio of David Edwards (LG), Connor McGovern (C), and O’Cyrus Torrence (RG) can handle as he could play the role of game wrecker this week. After Williams the strength of the Jets front does weaken slightly against the run with players like Michael Clemons, Javon Kinlaw, and Solomon Thomas all presenting as solid players but uninspiring starting options in the NFL. Assuming Buffalo can occasionally handle Williams, there are spots and ways they can win on the ground. Expect Buffalo to run away from Williams and attempt to get a linemen or extra blocker to the second level in order to pickup extra yards on the ground. This is a matchup Buffalo would have a clear advantage in but the injuries they are dealing with would make it irresponsible not to side with the Jets here.

ADVANTAGE: Jets 👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense

The clear strength of the Buffalo Bills right now is their pass defense, that despite injuries has played very well thus far this season. Making is all the more impressive, they have played well against some very good quarterbacks which has included Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and CJ Stroud. There have undoubtedly been issues but for the most part Buffalo’s pass defense has held up holding opposing quarterbacks to a Passer Rating of just 82.4 (NFL-9). The most impressive part of their play has been on the outside where both Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have been playing at an All-Pro level while shutting down opposing receivers. Benford has allowed a passer rating against of just 65.2 and while Douglas has a rating against of 115.4, +30.6 of that rating came on a miscommunication with rookie Cole Bishop that resulted in a 67-yard TD being applied to Rasul Douglas. These are the players that opposing quarterbacks don’t want to test and with the imminent return of starters Taylor Rapp (SAF) and Taron Johnson (Slot-CB) the need to attack them may overwhelm the want not to.

Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) intercepts a pass and is tackled by New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

This week that pass defense will take on a struggling Jets air attack that has had just one good game this season. That one good game came against the Patriots in Week #3 where Aaron Rodgers accounted for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns on a 77.1% completion percentage. In their other four games Rodgers has accounted for just 5 passing touchdowns while throwing 4 interceptions with a completion percentage of 57.1%. For a team that has Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams at wide receiver as well as plus pass catchers out of the backfield in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen that is simply not good enough by Rodgers. As a result, interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich took play calling duties from OC Nathaniel Hackett this week and handed them to Todd Downing who will try to reinvigorate the Jets air attack. Expect them to attack the middle of the field where Dorian Williams (LB) has been the clear weak point for Buffalo’s pass defense but is now protected by Terrel Bernard (LB). Buffalo’s offensive matchup is a bad one, but the Jets may have an even worse one if season long trends spill into this game.

Things don’t improve much in the trenches for the Jets where their revamped offensive line has at times struggled to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to find an open receiver. Rodgers 2.3 pocket time is tied for 7th lowest in the NFL while he has been hit 21 times, 6th most in the NFL. Heading into Monday night’s contest there are also concerns about their Right Tackles health as Morgan Moses will be dealing with knee injury. Despite the likelihood that he will play doing so at less than 100%, Buffalo with a major mismatch in the form of Greg Rousseau. But Buffalo also has injury concerns with their best Defensive Tackle, Ed Oliver, unlikely to play with a hamstring injury which means more of rookie DeWayne Carter. Round out Buffalo’s pass rush with AJ Epenesa (DE), Javon Solomon (DE), DaQuan Jones (DT), and a few others against the Jets Tyron Smith (LT), John Simpson (LG), Joe Tippmann (C), and Alijah Vera-Tucker (RG) and the trenches should be a fairly even matchup in this game.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau pressures Aaron Rogers (8) / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Jets Rush Offense

Defending the run has been a difficult endeavor for the 2024 Buffalo Bills, but there is optimism that it could improve. The return of Terrel Bernard is a massive boon for this as the third-year linebacker has not only proven to have elite instincts during plays but also the acumen to move defenders pre-play. One of those defenders happens to be the player flanking him, Dorian Williams, who at times has struggled this season but is seemingly improving week after week. Though his coverage abilities remain sub-par his ability to defend the run is quickly becoming a plus as he is starting to move downhill with intent. As a result, he currently leads the NFL with 54 combined tackles and is starting to make more of them closer to the line of scrimmage. The Jets are set to test him this week and whether he is up to the task will go a long way in deciding the outcome of Monday’s contest.

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) and Buffalo Bills linebacker Dorian Williams (42) / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

That task will be a perplexing one as Buffalo is set to contend with one of the better running back pairs in the NFL, but a pair that has struggled with efficiency this season. Breece Hall is the primary back for the Jets and a player who ran for 994 yards in 2023 after coming off an ACL tear in 2022. Now in 2024 he is on pace for under 700 yards, but even more concerning is his 3.03 yards per attempt. The biggest issue for Hall has been his inability to find space to operate as he is averaging just 1.0 yards before contact, which ranks 52 out of 53 qualifying players this season. This is why Braelon Allen has become so important to the Jets rushing attack as his physical nature not only allows him to get downhill faster, but to do so with the ability to consistently pick up extra yards after contact. In short order the distribution of carries may pivot towards Allen because of this but at least for now the Bills will need to be concerned with Hall then Allen.

Nov 19, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (91) pursues New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

After Hall and Allen, the running game is fairly barren for a Jets offense now called by Todd Downing. Aaron Rodgers does have a little left in the tank and if he sees wide open lanes will take off to pick up a first down on occasion. As for auxiliary aspects of the Jets rushing attack, don’t expect much as the last time Downing was a play caller (’22 Titans) the ball was handed to non-running backs just 8 times. With Buffalo aware of this and aware of the Jets inability to consistently move the ball through the air, don’t be surprised if they bail out on stopping the run while relying on their secondary to clamp down the Jets when they do go through the air. This is the matchup New York must win, if they don’t, it may not matter how good their defense is, they may just not be able to score enough points.

ADVANTAGE: Jets 👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Jets Special Teams

The leash may be short for Tyler Bass, but he did enough in Week 5 to at least stay on it. He drilled all three of his kicks bumping his field goal percentage up to 80% and extra point percentage up to 94.1% but he remains a player you hold your breath for when he lines up to kick. As for Punter, Sam Martin is quietly having a great season for Buffalo, consistently flipping the field for them when called upon while achieving a 55.0% inside the 20 rate on the season. Lastly is Buffalo’s return man, Brandon Codrington, who the Bills acquired from the Jets. With his style and abilities, it seems only a matter of time before he breaks a big return, with this game in particular being the most obvious for it to occur during.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills place kicker Tyler Bass / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

For the Jets, they have more confidence in Greg Zuerlein than the Bills do in Tyler Bass, but not by much. Now 36, there are questions on how long for the NFL he is and having already missed two field goals this season ramps up those questions. He missed what would have been a 50-yard game winner in week four and a 45-yarder in three, neither unforgivable but neither gimmes either. Similar to the Bills though, Punter Thomas Morstead is having a solid season with a net yards per punt of 42.7 and an inside the 20 rate of 40.0%. As for return for the Jets, the name of note is Xavier Gipson, who Bills fans will remember beating Buffalo in Week 1 of the 2023 season. He remains a major weapon for the Jets and should be avoided at all costs in this critical Week 6 matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Jets 👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The Bills offense has been horrendous over the past couple weeks and with how they have played the Jets historically and how they matchup with them currently this doesn’t seem like a great get right week. Both D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner should clamp down multiple players for the Bills while the other options Buffalo have in the passing game will be uninspiring. Can Kincaid get open? Will they use Knox? How can they establish the run without James Cook? All good questions Bills fans may have an all questions the Jets team would answer with “they won’t”.

On the other side of the ball the Jets need to figure out how to move the ball consistently through the air but against the Bills leaning on Braelon Allen and Breece Hall to get the job done should suffice. With Buffalo likely missing their best interior defensive tackle in Ed Oliver, expect the Jets to heavily feature inside runs as they try and establish the line of scrimmage and create long and efficient drives for their offense. If they can do this the adjustments Buffalo will need to make will expose them to a deep ball over the top which Aaron Rodgers will, and can, do given the opportunity.

Why Buffalo Will Win

At some point the real Josh Allen will stand up, and despite the Jets being a team he historically struggles against, it’s also a team he knows his offense should and can beat. This does seem like the week he will throw an interception but if the tradeoff is more consistent yardage through the air and a handful more yards on the ground, the Bills will take it. Speaking of the ground, no James Cook is a major concern but one the Bills are prepared to deal with. Both Ty Johnson and Ray Davis can pick up yards on the ground and as long as this doesn’t turn into a struggle early could be the way in which Buffalo closes out this game.

Jan 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (91) is congratulated by cornerback Taron Johnson (24) after getting a sack against the New York Jets / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

On the other side of the ball Buffalo is getting healthier and may even get back one of the league’s best players at their respective position, Taron Johnson. With Johnson and Bernard back in the fold what can be an elite defense should be even better against both the pass and the run. As long as the Jets don’t dominate the Bills interior defensive line this should be a game where Bobby Babich and Sean McDermott can force the Jets to make errant decisions. Considering all the turmoil in New Jersey right now and the desperation of that franchise, Buffalo should have the emotional advantage, something that could be significant on Monday night.

Prediction: Bills 20 – Jets 17

Faith in the Bills offense may be waning, but two bad weeks doesn’t define the season. If the Bills lose this week, it also won’t mean the season is over, but they will have some work and soul searching to do in short order. But I don’t expect that, they are too good a team to lose three straight games and too good a team to lose to a struggling team like the Jets. Don’t expect Allen to put up gaudy numbers but expect multiple touchdowns and for Buffalo to push twenty points. Do that, and with the way the Jets offense is playing, it may be insurmountable for gang green.

Dec 9, 2018; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates after running the ball in for a touchdown during against the New York Jets / Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

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