Cardinals vs. Bills NFL Week 1 Preview: A New Era in Buffalo

The Buffalo Bills enter Week 1 with a lot to prove against an Arizona Cardinals team far too many people are sleeping on.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Sep 6, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose”, “Why Buffalo Will Win”, and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s first edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 1 clash with the Arizona Cardinals. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

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Josh Allen enters the 2024 season on a mission to disprove the “most overrated” title a small subset of NFL players levied on him. The league leader in touchdowns (+23) since 2020 is expected to complete this mission with major changes all around him and a supporting cast that is nationally perceived as underwhelming. Yet the quarterback seems poised to excel in this new iteration of the Bills after an offseason spent honing his craft and with a history of elevating those around him. That history includes the likes of Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Stefon Diggs, all of whom had their best season(s) with the signal caller. Now entering Week 1 of the 2024 season, Allen will look to produce similar results with a young and intriguing receiver group that will rely on him to lead them against a surprisingly dangerous Arizona Cardinals team.

For the most part, the dangerous aspects of the Cardinals reside on offense with a few threatening players on defense. Amongst those players is the safety duo of Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker, who will make it difficult to beat the Cardinals over the top. While Baker has fallen off a bit in recent years, he still is an above-average safety while Thompson is quietly becoming one of the league’s most underrated deep pass defenders. Where the secondary gets dicey is in front of the safeties where the Cardinals cornerbacks match up poorly with the Bills' pass catchers. Sean Murphy-Bunting mans one of the outside roles, where he should match up well with the likes of Keon Coleman, while 2023 undrafted free agent Starling Thomas is set to get the start opposite Murphy-Bunting but seems to be at a disadvantage contending with someone like Khalil Shakir. In the slot is another second-year corner in Garrett Williams, who will see a rotation of players enter his purview including the dynamic Curtis Samuel. Lastly are the Cardinals linebackers Kyzir White and Mack Wilson, who are each quality players but at a massive disadvantage against Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and James Cook.

Buffalo should have their pick of multiple mismatches to attack on any given play, but what makes matters worse for the Cardinals is that Josh Allen is set to have plenty of time to find the best one. The Cardinals' pass rush is by far the weakest part of their team with major concerns about where their pressure will come from. On the inside, their six rostered defensive tackles had 9.5 sacks last season on a combined 2,507 snaps. Among them, the only two real threats to pressure the quarterback appear to be Justin Jones and Dante Stills which consequentially may mean consistent playing time for the two in Week 1. For most teams, a poor interior pass rush is subsidized by a strong edge presence but for the Cardinals, there isn’t much to write home about there, either. Dennis Gardeck is coming off a nice six-sack 2023 but that season appears to be an anomaly for a player who has just two multi-sack seasons in his six-year career. Opposite him is Zaven Collins, a previously tweener outside linebacker turned full-time defensive end as a player who has yet to top four sacks in a season. Neither Gardeck nor Collins represent a substantial threat to a Bills team that will trot out the always-reliable Dion Dawkins at left tackle and the ever-improving Spencer Brown at right tackle in yet another big advantage for Buffalo.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Cardinals Rush Defense

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James Cook is coming off a Pro Bowl season where he finished sixth in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,567). He accomplished this due in large part to his status as a bellcow back, a status forced on him due to injuries to Nyheim Hines and Damien Harris as well as the advanced age of Latavius Murray. As a result, Cook finished with an RB touch share of 62.2% with Murray, Buffalo’s RB2, finishing with a touch share of just 21.2%. Entering 2024, there are reasons to believe that these numbers will more closely resemble the Bills 2022 RB’s touch shares of 58.1% and 29.7% respectively for then RB1 Devin Singletary and RB2 James Cook. The reason for this is the expected emergence of rookie rusher Ray Davis, who brings with him a skillset complementary to that of Cook. Adding him to the backfield to pair with Cook and other auxiliary forms of rushing should provide Buffalo with an increased floor while the Bills' passing attack finds its footing.

That high floor should be on display in Week 1 as Buffalo contends with a box that is lacking playmakers for the Cardinals. Despite some minor changes, the expectations are that the Arizona run defense should struggle as much as they did last season where they finished 29th in yards per attempt against (4.7). The addition of Bilal Nichols in the trenches and Mack Wilson at linebacker should help in that regard, but how much? Nichols did have 23 run stops in 2023, but on 293 run snaps, a run stop rate of 7.85% is at best adequate for an interior defensive lineman. As for Mack Wilson, he’s a linebacker who has just 11 tackles for loss on 2,050 defensive snaps as a player who plays behind the line of scrimmage far too often. This shifts the focus back to Kyzir White who must play above his skill level if the Cardinals hope to contain, and slow down, the Bills' running backs this weekend.

And even if they can, Buffalo has alternative ways of attacking opponents on the ground. The obvious is Josh Allen who has proven to be one of the most dominant running quarterbacks in NFL history. Consider this: Allen, who averages roughly nine rushing touchdowns per season, is just nine rushing touchdowns away from passing O.J. Simpson in career rushing touchdowns. If the Bills get into the red zone, there is one player they will rely on to punch the ball in, and that’s obviously Allen. Outside of him, though, don’t be surprised if wideout Curtis Samuel gets some carries each week. Reports from training camp had Samuel lining up next to Allen in the backfield often. The occasional handoff or toss to Samuel is not off the table and is just another way Buffalo can attack this Cardinals team on the ground.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Cardinals Pass Offense

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No Tre White. No Micah Hyde. No Jordan Poyer. A new era will begin on September 8 for a team that has had at least one of those three All-Pro players in each of the past seven seasons. Instead, the Bills will role with Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson at corner as well as a slew of safeties, all of whom are in line for playing time. While there is some fear amongst Buffalo’s fanbase and some trepidation nationally that the Bills are in line for a major regression against the pass, all signs point to quality play continuing from this unit. Not only have all of the Bills' corners proven to be quality NFL starters, but head coach Sean McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich have proven to be defensive back gurus during their time in the NFL. While a little regression is possible, some progression could be in line as well, with the first opportunity to get a taste of Buffalo’s new secondary occurring against an underappreciated Cardinals’ passing attack.

He may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but far too many people have forgotten who Kyler Murray is. Who Murray is, is a quarterback that has proven able to make passes to every level with the ability to extend plays for a substantial amount of time. Despite rehabbing from an ACL tear and dealing with a poor surrounding cast of talent, Murray accounted for 240.5 net yards per game and 13 total touchdowns in the final eight games of 2023. Life will be easier for Murray in 2024 with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. who has all the makings of an alpha wide receiver one. His mix of innate athleticism and elite talent will make him a matchup nightmare all season, with his first test likely primarily coming against Rasul Douglas. On the other side of the field, Michael Wilson had a solid rookie season and will be a real test for Benford while Greg Dortch versus Taron Johnson will be a fun battle to monitor. All that said, the biggest threat for the Cardinals may come on the inside where the Bills hope to match Terrel Bernard onto tight end Trey McBride while the Cardinals try to sneak him onto Buffalo’s other linebacker and/or down safety.

Where Buffalo can make up for a slight disadvantage at the skill positions is in the trenches where they have the horses to make Murray uncomfortable. Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa enter 2024 with high expectations and equally high potential. They will line up against Paris Johnson (LT) and Jonah Williams (RT) in two matchups which could go a long way in deciding the outcome of this game. On the inside, Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones will look to recapture their early season success from 2023 prior to Jones' injury. If they are capable of reaching that level of play, they will be a threat to any interior line in the NFL including the Cardinals trio of Evan Brown (LG), Hjalte Froholdt (C), and Will Hernandez (RG). Cardinals’ quarterbacks were sacked 14th most in the NFL in 2023 while the Bills had the fourth most sacks; expect Buffalo to get after Murray on Sunday.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Cardinals Rush Offense

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Entering the 2024 offseason, optimism was high that the Bills would be a dominant force against all aspects of opposing offenses due largely to the linebacker tandem of Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. Then Milano tore his bicep and left a glaring hole at linebacker alongside Bernard. But the same happened last season and Buffalo remained competent against the run, finishing 17th in run defense DVOA (-8.7%). This was spurred by the ascension of (now captain) Bernard, who played at an elite level for most of the season and elevated the play of running mate Tyrel Dodson in the process. In 2024, much like Josh Allen, Bernard will be expected to elevate those around him including whoever lines up at the other linebacker position for the Bills. In Week 1 that will likely be Dorian Williams as Buffalo is set to take on one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL.

For much of 2023, the Arizona Cardinals were not a threat to throw the ball which allowed opponents to load the box and attack the run. Despite that, the combination of James Connor and Emari Demercado still combined for an impressive 4.98 yards per attempt and nine rushing touchdowns. Both of those running backs return in 2024 but will be split by the 66th overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, Trey Benson. Benson has all the makings of a star as an NFL running back with elite size and elite speed at the position with the need only to improve his instincts. Assuming the latter does occur, the combination of Benson and Conner will represent one of the more dangerous and punishing pairs in the NFL and have a chance to run all over the Bills on Sunday. This will put an extra emphasis on Bernard and Williams to play downhill while Buffalo’s safeties and corners will need to make a handful of plays off the edge. Arizona can win this game and if they do, it will likely be due to their efficiency on the ground.

But their efficiency doesn’t stop at running back, it extends to their quarterback. Murray was well shy of 100% in 2024 and still averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game, a full-season pace of 519 yards. Now even healthier, Murray’s legs are set to factor heavily into the Cardinals' season-long success, as whether as a scrambler or via a designed run, Murray will make it difficult for opposing defenses to keep track of where the ball is. This ability will put expanded pressure on Buffalo’s edge to maintain contain while rushing. This extends past Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa, who are both excellent in that regard, and to players like Dawuane Smoot and Von Miller. Miller, in particular, will be an interesting figure to watch on Sunday as Murray is the perfect test for whether or not Miller’s knee can keep up with an elusive quarterback. If it can, Miller may be back; if it can’t, it could be another long unproductive season for the aging future Hall of Famer.

ADVANTAGE: Cardinals 👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Cardinals Special Teams

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Arguably the most worrisome part of the Bills roster is their special teams. Tyler Bass seems to be shaken as a kicker, and shaken kickers rarely round back into form. For Buffalo to begin trusting Bass again, a clean first game will be a start, but until that is achieved it’ll be a hold-your-breath moment anytime he steps on the field. As for punter, Sam Martin had a fairly strong camp and looks to be a player that Buffalo can rely on in the rare chance that they punt. Lastly, Buffalo made a trade to acquire a return man on cutdown day when they went and got Brandon Codrington to handle both punts and kicks. Codrington is a relatively unknown asset, but he does have some juice and could factor into the outcome of Sunday’s game.

For the Cardinals, the now 40-year-old Matt Prater will handle kicking duties while 26-year-old Blake Gillikin takes care of punting. Despite his age, Prater still remains a quality kicker and even had the league-long kick last season at 62 yards. As for Gillikin, he handled a heavy workload well in 2023, earning himself a two-year contract heading into this season. He had a whopping 50.6 yards per punt but with a delta between that and net yards of 7.7 suggesting he is susceptible to giving up some space on returns. As for return, both Greg Dortch and DeeJay Dallas are in line for work in one or both return roles. Each had solid seasons as return men in 2023, averaging over 9.0 yards per punt return and 20.0 yards per kick return, and will be threats this season given changes to the return rules.

ADVANTAGE: Cardinals 👏👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

Week 1 is wonky, and Week 1 can lie. It’s lied in the past about the Buffalo Bills (See 2021 & 2023), but this Cardinals team doesn’t need to lie to beat the Bills. On offense they are going to test the Bills' ability to contain the run and whether or not they can stop passes over the middle. Expect a heavy dose of James Connor and Trey Benson on the ground while Kyler Murray tries to feed Trey McBride over the middle. If they can do that and get the Bills' revamped safety group to creep, they will attack it through the form of Marvin Harrison or Michael Wilson. Points are to be had here, and the Cardinals can take them.

As for defense, the Cardinals may be at a major disadvantage against Buffalo; however, the Bills' inexperience playing with each other may present rust. A couple of mistakes could quickly turn the tide of this game with turnovers being the biggest catalyst. If Josh Allen tries to get cute and pinhole a pass deep over the middle, a player like Jalen Thompson will make him pay while the center-quarterback exchange will be a concern until it isn’t a concern for the Bills. Buffalo has the advantage here, but the Cardinals have a path to steal it.

Why Buffalo Will Win

Despite their offensive overhaul, the Bills remain flush with weapons and in this game, weapons that match up really well with a subpar Cardinals defense. The quick pass game should be a feature of the Bills on Sunday with a few deep shots taken to Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and/or Dawson Knox. This could further be set up by a heavy dose of pre-snap motion, allowing Buffalo to generate mismatches and identify coverage schemes. If the air attack does struggle the shift to the ground attack is one the Bills have proved willing to make under Joe Brady and could maintain a 1-0 record heading out of this game.

On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has a big advantage in the trenches which should mitigate concerns against the Cardinals' slight advantage at the skill positions. Expect Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, in particular, to win often up front while Babich dials up a handful of surprise blitzes. Buffalo has a lot of interchangeability on defense which they should highlight in different packages and concepts aimed at scheming up protection of weak points and causing confusion for a young Cardinals offense.

Prediction: Bills 31 – Cardinals 21

For all the talk this offseason about the Bills' downfall, they are clearly still a contender in 2024. They have a lot of dynamic weapons on offense, none greater than quarterback Josh Allen. He's set to have a field day against the Cardinals as long as he is able to get out of his own way and make the right decisions. The Cardinals are an underrated team though and will test the new Bills' defense and could make this a game, or even steal it. Likely though, Buffalo puts up enough points to leave Buffalo for Miami as a 1-0 squad.

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