Bills vs. Ravens NFL Week 4 Preview: A Rivalry Continues

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills head down to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and friends in a critical AFC matchup.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Sep 27, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s fourth edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 4 clash with the Baltimore Ravens. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Ravens Pass Defense

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The loss of Stefon Diggs led many to project the Buffalo aerial attack to take a step back this season, but through three weeks, that passing attack may actually be…better? Josh Allen currently has the league’s best Passer Rating (133.7), ten distinct players have caught multiple passes, and Buffalo’s 37.3 points per game is tops in the NFL. Via the scheme of offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills seem content with taking what opponents give them while distributing the ball to players with no bias. The latter of that is what makes them so dangerous through the air, as teams have no one player to key on. The result is a system that will not only expose weaknesses, but also cause them on a consistent enough basis that it seems to become more difficult to slow them down as the weeks go on. This week presents a unique challenge for the Bills' passing attack as they are set to take on an immensely talented, but underperforming Ravens team with regard to defending the pass.

Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Marlon Humphrey, and Eddie Jackson are all names most NFL fans have heard and are all players struggling through three weeks. Hamilton, in particular, has had a rough start to the 2024 campaign, especially considering he was arguably the best defensive player in the NFL in 2023. Heading into this game, opponents have a 123.9 Passer Rating when targeting Hamilton in part because of a major shift in his alignment. Last season he aligned as a free safety on 29.4% of snaps, with that number dropping to 17.1% this year. He is spending more time in the box and slot this season, where this week he will likely match up with Khalil Shakir and/or Dalton Kincaid, each of whom have a major athletic advantage over him. Outside of that, Buffalo has the pieces to win on the outside against a struggling Marlon Humphrey as well as Brandon Stephens and Nate Wiggins. Expect Buffalo to formulate mismatches with pre-snap motion and attack the NFL’s worst pass defense through the air over and over again.

Baltimore does have the ability to turn the tide of this matchup if its pass rushers can get past Buffalo’s stout offensive line. That line has protected Allen to the tune of just two sacks the season, both of which occurred in Week 1. Over the past two weeks, they have kept their quarterback clean despite going up against above-average to elite pass rushers in Jaelan Phillips, Travon Walker, and Josh Hines-Allen. Their main competition off the edge this week will include Kyle Van Noy, Odafe Oweh, and David Ojabo, who have combined for 7.5 sacks this season. They will, however, be matched up with the Bills' impressive offensive tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, which does yet again favor Buffalo. The somewhat sneaky wildcard to all of this is Nnamdi Madubuike who, like several of his teammates, is off to a slow start but has the talent to turn it around. He has just 0.5 sacks this season after coming off a 2023 campaign where he finished ninth in Defensive Player of the Year voting with 13.0 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. He’s going to look to jumpstart his season against the Bills' interior offensive line in a critical game not just for him, but also for the Ravens.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense

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The lethality of the Bills' passing attack is based on much more than the skill with which they are executing passing plays. While teams already struggle to contend with the plethora of pass catchers the Bills may trot out, they also must be aware of the dynamic run game Buffalo can present. Josh Allen factors heavily into this, already accounting for nine first downs and two touchdowns this season, but the respect that James Cook now demands is integral to their offensive success. Cook has accounted for 188 yards on the ground through three games while demonstrating a combination of athleticism and vision that is hard to replicate in the NFL. The athleticism has led him to extend plays into extra yardage, but it's his vision that represents the biggest threat to opponents. Ignoring Cook means providing him that extra split second to identify a hole opened up by his offensive line and identifying that means a big gain for the Bills' big-time running back.

As porous as the Ravens' pass defense has been, their run defense has been as solid. They are the only team giving up under 3.0 yards per attempt to opposing rushers this season, sitting at 2.8. This is caused by a quality defensive line but even more importantly an elite linebacker duo. That pair is mainly propped up by Roquan Smith, who is now in his seventh season and third with Baltimore. He’s an all-world tackler for multiple reasons but primarily his abilities as a tackler close to the line of scrimmage. His running mate this season is the 86th overall pick from the 2023 draft, Trenton Simpson. He replaces Patrick Queen as the more aggressive and athletic option to pair with Roquan and can chase down runners in space. Each of these players are set to not only make production difficult for Cook, but also Josh Allen, who has been known to use his legs in pivotal moments. Spying is unlikely given the way the Bills offense is currently operating but with players like Simpson, and even Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens could spy Allen if he starts to pick up consistent yardage with his legs.

There is one concern for the Ravens, though, as their primary nose tackle Michael Pierce is dealing with a shoulder injury. He is expected to play but how limiting that injury will be remains to be seen. Baltimore desperately needs him in the middle to counter the Bills duo run concepts as a player who has an uncanny ability to anchor and hold the line at the point of attack. Behind him, the Ravens can, and will, use veteran Brent Urban and human behemoth Travis Jones to help maintain the line but would do so while acknowledging each player's limitations. Further assistance against the run will be needed on the edge, an area that Buffalo could elect to attack to keep the Ravens edge rushers on their heels. This could simply be via stretch handoffs to Cook or more dynamic through a Josh Allen designed run or a possible jet sweep to the likes of Curtis Samuel. Baltimore is very good against the run and has a clear advantage here, but it has also yet to face a rushing attack like Buffalo’s.

ADVANTAGE: Ravens 👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Ravens Pass Offense

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Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence are each NFL quarterbacks with unique skill sets and innate talent. Each are also quarterbacks who struggled mightily against the Bills. The three combined for a completion percentage of 62.8%, 485 passing yards, three touchdowns, and five turnovers over a struggle-filled three-game campaign. Even more impressive is that, while holding these quarterbacks down, the Bills did the same to impressive wide receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Christian Kirk, and Brian Thomas. The classic “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” is a perfect descriptor of Buffalo’s approach to slowing down the air attack of its opponents. Yet Buffalo still has plenty of talent in the secondary, and talent they will need to show up in a big way against one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

That quarterback is two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who is one of many mismatches the Ravens have on offense this week. Jackson’s abilities to escape pressure and buy time for his receivers is second to few and will likely be on full display on Sunday night. Buffalo did struggle when Murray escaped the pocket, and Jackson does it at a much higher level and will do so against a second level that is lacking in high-end talent. When he does escape his eyes are going to be glued to his tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews in addition to wideout Zay Flowers, all of whom can win in the intermediate over the middle. This, in turn, avoids the Bills' exceptional outside corners in Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas and picks on players like Cam Lewis, Ja’Marcus Ingram, and Dorian Williams. Buffalo will undoubtedly have a plan to combat this but with the talent discrepancy, any plan which Buffalo may have may fall short on defending what can be an elite passing attack.

Buffalo does have a major advantage in the trenches, however, against an offensive line which has struggled at points early this season. More concerning for the Ravens is it is looking more and more like starting left guard Andrew Vorhees will not play while Daniel Faalele (RG), Patrick Mekari (RT), and Tyler Linderbaum (C) will all play well below 100%. Not an optimal situation when going up players like Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Greg Rousseau, and a suddenly dangerous and possibly rehabilitated Von Miller. Buffalo will need to rush with contain in mind to avoid Jackson picking up yardage with his legs but there are battles to be won for Buffalo’s defensive line up front. Further, if defensive coordinator Bobby Babich and Sean McDermott want to get cute, the occasional linebacker or corner blitz could overwhelm an offensive line where communication has been an issue.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Ravens Rush Offense

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If there is a true weak spot on this Buffalo team, it's its run defense. Opponents' 4.7 yards per carry average against the defense ranks 22nd in the NFL as Buffalo’s injuries in the second level have significantly impacted its ability to slow down opposing runners. Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, and Matt Milano are all plus run stoppers and without that trio, or even just one of them, the product has suffered. This is not to say that Cam Lewis, Baylon Spector, and Dorian Williams have not filled in admirably, but a drop-off of significant magnitude is to be expected when going from three All-Pro caliber players to less experienced options. Those options will need to have the game of their lives on Sunday night as their abilities, or possibly inabilities, to slow down the ground game could be the deciding factor.

Slowing down the Ravens' rushing attack is predicated on winning at the line of scrimmage. Running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson are each amongst the league’s most dangerous players in the open field, but for different reasons. Henry is a proven wrecking ball who, once at full speed, is almost impossible to bring down solo while Jackson is arguably the most elusive running quarterback, and possibly player, in NFL history. All of this means Buffalo must win up front to compete, specifically in the middle of the line of scrimmage. Ed Oliver consistently flashes the ability to do that with this week being a game he could quickly take over with the same able to be said of the man flanking him, DaQuan Jones. AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau could also be in line for big games, as both are plus-run defenders who have the ability to maintain contain on both Lamar and Henry.

But one of, if not both, Jackson and Henry will inevitably reach the open field and when that occurs, Buffalo’s back seven must bring them down as quickly as possible. This will put tons of pressure on Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams to play lights out but will further extend to safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin. Of interest for Buffalo is whether or not there are different sub-packages used this week than we have seen in weeks past, and while this doesn’t mean they will leave Nickel, which they won’t, it could mean different personnel. Look for players like Mike Edwards or Cole Bishop to see a possible uptick in snaps as presumed better tacklers than players like Ja’Marcus Ingram and Cam Lewis. You could also see a shift to a veteran presence at linebacker such as Nicholas Morrow if the Ravens win early and often on the ground. Whatever the Bills decide from a personnel standpoint, one thing is for sure: slowing down the Ravens ground game will undoubtedly require a full team effort.

ADVANTAGE: Ravens 👏👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Ravens Special Teams

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Tyler Bass continues to be fine, albeit unspectacular, so far, drilling 90% of his kicks on the season. He will remain a hold-your-breath style of player for the foreseeable future, but he has yet to collapse completely like many Bills fans expected heading into this season. On the other end of the spectrum, the rarely used Sam Martin has been impressive in the rare occurrence he is called upon. He has just six punts on the season but 66.7% of those have been downed inside the 20 while he holds a very solid 42.8 net yards per punt. Lastly is return where Brandon Codrington has yet to break a big one on punt but visibly has juice in that regard. Look for him to be a threat with the ball if/when the Ravens are forced to punt, while expectations should be that Baltimore avoids allowing any kick returns.

Oddly similar to Bass, confidence is waning in the greatest kicker of all time, Justin Tucker. He’s just five-of-eight on field goals this season and just two-of-eight from 50+ dating back to last season. A regression may be in progress for Tucker, but until the wheels fully fall off, Tucker should be treated as the weapon he is. Punting for the Ravens is another impressive individual in Jordan Stout who, on 10 punts this season, has a delta between gross and net of just 1.6. That is indicative of a player who rarely allows returns, and when he does, provides enough hangtime for his coverage team. As for returns, ex-Bills return specialist Deonte Harty is handling punt returns, where he is always a threat, while kick return is an uncertain role for the AFC North team.

ADVANTAGE: Ravens 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

From a pure matchup standpoint, this is a nightmare-level game for the Bills' defense. Everything for Baltimore screams attack the linebackers, and it has the players to do that efficiently. Its tight ends, its running backs, Zay Flowers, and most importantly Lamar Jackson all have the ability to win consistently against the center of the Bills defense. Buffalo struggled with Kyler Murray in the first half of the first game of the season particularly because of how he used his legs, and though he stopped doing so in the second half, there is no reason to expect Jackson to stop. Baltimore is going to put up points, and it’s unknown if Buffalo has any true counters available to contend with him.

On the defensive side of the ball the Ravens have struggled through three weeks but make no mistake, they are incredibly talented. Marlon Humphrey still has one of the best peanut punches in the NFL, Kyle Hamilton is a freak, Roquan Smith is a future Hall of Famer, and Nnamdi Madubuike is set to break out at any point. Baltimore doesn’t need all of these to play up to their level to win this game, but just one could alter the outcome of this game. To that end, Josh Allen has really only made one mistake this season, but at some point, history and logic tell us another mistake will happen. If it’s this week, it could result in an L finding its way into the Bills' record.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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The Bills are currently playing like the best team in the NFL. They dominated the second half against the Cardinals, destroyed the Dolphins, and embarrassed the Jaguars. Most of these teams are not viewed as powerhouses but all three of them are known to possess talent on offense. That talent the Bills stifled due to exceptional gameplans and aggressive defensive players. Against the Ravens, there is no real reason to believe that will just dissipate, despite Baltimore presenting very unique challenges. By no means an easy task, it’s still one Buffalo is clearly up for.

On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen has played like the best quarterback in football through three weeks and now goes up against what has been the worst pass defense in football through three games. Logic tells us that Allen is set for another big game in a situation where his team will likely need him to put up 28+ points. If that doesn’t work the ground game is a solid fallback for a Bills team that has leveraged it well in the early going. Buffalo’s offense is dominant, if they can go out and do more of the same against the Ravens, we will start calling them special.

Prediction: Bills 28 – Ravens 27

In all honesty, the plan all along was to pick the Ravens to win this game because of the mismatches they have against Buffalo. Then the Bills eviscerated the Jaguars to such an extent that it became nearly impossible to pick against them. Josh Allen seems poised to go into Baltimore and have yet another big game to add to his MVP campaign while the defense will do just enough for Buffalo to leave 4-0. No outcome here should surprise you, though a 4-0 start by the Bills would surprise many.

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Published Sep 27, 2024

HANS A. HANSEN LLL