Bills vs. Jaguars NFL Week 3 Preview: A broken hand versus a broken team

The Buffalo Bills take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a Week 3 battle which may be season-defining for both teams.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Sep 21, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s third edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 3 clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Jaguars Pass Defense

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Josh Allen has appeared in 106 games in his career, and in only six of those games has he had under 25 touches. That's all the Bills needed from him last Thursday when his 19 pass, two rush game resulted in a 31-10 trouncing of the division rival Miami Dolphins. When Allen did touch the ball, he maintained his impressively efficient start to the season, finishing with a 107.1 passer rating resulting in a 124.2 rating on the season. That makes this Bills offense all the more dangerous as a unit that now seems intent on taking what the defense gives them while maintaining the trump card that is Josh Allen. It’s fair to say he, and the passing attack, have yet to be fully unleashed on the NFL, and despite that, Buffalo’s offense remains one of the league’s best while the team is off to a 2-0 start. Now they head back home to take on a desperate Jaguars team that has a history of causing issues for the Bills offense.

20-25 in 2023 and 6-9 in 2021 are the outcomes of the last two contests between the Bills and Jaguars, with Jacksonville coming out on top in each game. Jacksonville will again be the underdog this time around, but a dog with plenty of bite on the defensive side of the ball. There is not a player within that group more dangerous than the ex-Josh Allen, now Josh Hines-Allen. Hines-Allen had a breakout year in 2023, recording 17.5 sacks as a force that can line up on either side of the line meaning he will be a problem for one or both of Dion Dawkins (LT) and Spencer Brown (RT) on Monday. Opposite him is the 2022 first-overall pick Travon Walker, who is by no means a slouch accounting for 10.0 sacks last season and already two this year. The tide can turn in this game that the Bills are heavily favored in, and both Hines-Allen and Walker have the gravity to move that tide.

Behind them though is where things do get a little dicey in terms of defending the pass. Jacksonville’s entire secondary is filled with solid NFL players, but no real game changers, while their linebackers are built more to defend the run than pass. Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson make for a solid safety duo that can cause issues but their lack of experience playing together is something Buffalo will look to exploit. In front of them is where things take a turn, especially with star corner Tyson Campbell recently placed on injured reserve. That means Montaric Brown, Ronald Darby, and nickel Jarrian Jones will man the corner positions which spells trouble for a unit that sits in man coverage a league-high 63% of the time. Buffalo’s versatile pass catchers should find avenues to exploit this, with Khalil Shakir being the Bills' most obvious mismatch at the wide receiver position. As for linebacker, the Jaguars have a couple of really good ones but pass coverage is none of their fortes, which will present Buffalo with even more options through the air via both their tight ends as well as James Cook.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Jaguars Rush Defense

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Through two weeks of 2024, James Cook has picked up where he left off in 2023. He is currently averaging 5.8 yards per touch and is on pace for 1,683 scrimmage yards this season. His vision seems to have taken a massive step forward as he is identifying running lanes and hitting them with authority for large and consistent gains. This is a significant development for a Bills team that has long relied almost solely on Josh Allen’s production but now has another path to offensive success. This also pairs well with the recent influx of light boxes and two-high looks, with Buffalo demanding that opponents pick their poison. Want to prevent the big play through the air? Sit back in your shell and Buffalo will attack on the ground. Want to stack the box to slow down the ground attack? The Bills will slice and dice you through the air. This is complementary football at its finest.

And this week Buffalo may need to lean into the complementary attributes of their offense because they are contending with a Jaguars team that is built to stop the run. In the first two weeks of the season, opposing running backs have carried the ball 45 times, with only two of those carries exceeding 10 yards. This is due in large part to a linebacker duo of Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd who are amongst the league’s best, particularly against the rush. In their first season together in 2022, they combined for 17.5 tackles per game, which they followed up with 17.6 per game in 2023. Now in their third season together they are doing much of the same, combining for 36 tackles and four tackles for loss in the first two weeks. Each of these players is set to ensure that not only Cook but also any auxiliary rushing attack, including Allen, are unable to pick up chunk gains on the ground.

Where Jacksonville may struggle against the run is via the interior of its defensive line. Its rotation of DaVon Hamilton, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Arik Armstead may be limited but each is set to challenge the Bills' interior offensive line from different alignments. Hamilton is their AB specialist whose job is less about generating penetration and more about soaking blocks of players like Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence. Robertson-Harris will align in the B or C gap and primarily contend with guards and the occasional tackle crashing down. More of a penetrator, he will be relied on to get into the backfield and affect how James Cook runs the ball. Lastly is Armstead who aligns in the C gap and beyond as more of a sub-package defender. Armstead, now nearly 31, still has plenty of talent and may see the field a bit more Monday night if Buffalo elects to yet again roll with a run-heavy offense.

ADVANTAGE: Jaguars 👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Jaguars Pass Offense

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Despite the loss of All-Pro talent, the Bills' pass defense has been elite through two weeks while taking on elite talent. Both the Cardinals and Dolphins excelled when taking on other competition but struggled mightily against the Bills. A passer rating of 71.5 and 4.7 yards per dropback against Buffalo is indicative of a unit that is forcing teams to play shallow and preventing them from picking up extra yardage after the fact. This has been much the mantra of the Bills in the McDermott era though, but this season something feels different. Maybe it’s just the names on the jerseys in the secondary or maybe it’s the speed at which they are playing this season. Whatever it is, the rotation Buffalo is leveraging and the level at which they are playing has reaped dividends, something the team hopes continues on Monday night.

This week Buffalo is set to take on a Jaguars team that has struggled throwing the ball through two weeks. Heading into the game, Trevor Lawrence has just 382 passing yards on a 51.0% completion rate as he has struggled despite a slew of pass catchers most would consider above average. Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. have been his top options, accounting for nearly half of Lawrence’s completions and 64.4% of receiving yards. But to this point neither inspires fear that forces a follow; thus, Buffalo should be expected to sit back in its concepts and rely on Rasul Douglas and/or Christian Benford to match up well with whichever player they are aligned with. The interior gets a little more interesting, where Christian Kirk is one of the league’s better slot receivers but to date has just two catches for 29 yards. He is set to contend with the likes of Cam Lewis and/or Ja’Marcus Ingram in a matchup he clearly has the advantage in, but Buffalo has proven that the sum of its parts is greater than the individuals. Lastly is their tight end Evan Engram, who by far presents the greatest mismatch against a banged-up Bills linebacking unit, but he has injury concerns. If he does play, he is another avenue to success for Jacksonville, if he doesn’t things may get bad quickly for Jacksonville.

While an active Engram opens a lot of doors, they are doors Buffalo could quickly shut if its defensive line does what it should to the Jaguars offensive line. Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, and Ed Oliver have all flashed the upside Bills fans had hoped for early in the season and if that is any foreshadowing of what is to come, Buffalo’s defense is in line for great things. This week that trio will deal with a below-average set of tackles, with particular issues on the right side in Anton Harrison, as well as an interior offensive line that has yet to find its footing. In the middle, ex-Bills center Mitch Morse should be a stabilizing force for the Jaguars but he, as well as Ezra Cleveland (LG) and Brandon Scherff (RG), are set to struggle with Oliver, Daquan Jones, and company. We will be able to tell early who has the upper hand in this matchup but as far as interiors go, the Jaguars are closer to Miami than they are to Arizona.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Jaguars Rush Offense

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If there is a weakness among the Bills' top two phases, it is clearly in their run defense. Injuries to all three starters at the second level (Milano, Bernard, and Johnson) have left them to fill the sandwich that is their defense with backup players. The result is a run defense that is currently giving up 4.5 yards per attempt as they attempt to apply experience to young linebackers in trial by fire. Those players include Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, and Cam Lewis, each of whom has been exposed throughout the early part of the season, but have also equally impressed. Will they ever be as good as the currently injured trio? Highly unlikely. Will they be good enough and continue to get better week by week? Under Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich, that answer must be yes.

This week they will be key to slowing down an odd and awkward Jaguars rushing attack. They want to lean into the lightning and thunder that is Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby but have been unable to find a way to do so effectively. Further, Bigsby is dealing with an injury that may keep him out against Buffalo, resulting in D’Ernest Johnson getting more reps. These are all fine running backs but, on the ground, they are no James Connor or De’Von Achane, thus increasing the confidence in Buffalo’s ability to stop the run. Still, Etienne does possess game-changing speed while Johnson is a proven thumper which could put the Bills' inexperienced second level in a pickle. For that reason, look for McDermott and Babich to make adjustments early in an effort to combat how Jacksonville is attacking them, whether through different linebacker groups or their dime subpackage.

But Jacksonville’s rushing attack does not end with its running backs. While Trevor Lawrence is no Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, he is a solid runner as far as quarterbacks are concerned. In a game where his rushing attack may be lesser due to injuries, no one should be surprised if a designed run or a scramble uptick for Lawrence is in the plan. The goal of this won’t necessarily be to score touchdowns or pick up massive yards but instead to extend drives via first downs, something Lawrence has done on 100% of his rushes in 2024. This will put an extra emphasis on Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa to maintain edge integrity when rushing Lawrence to ensure he doesn’t break the pocket in an efficient manner. Of note, since being drafted, Lawrence has 14 fumbles lost, which is four more than any other player in the NFL. If/when the Bills do get to him, expect them to attack the ball ferociously.

ADVANTAGE: Jaguars 👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Jaguars Special Teams

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So, Tyler Bass shanked a field goal. That is obviously not great, but he is 11/12 on kicks this season with the majority being drilled down the pipe. It’s not time to hit the panic button for him quite yet, but it is worth monitoring. On the other hand, Sam Martin has been wonderful as a punter with a 41.6 net yards per punt and a 60% inside-the-20 rate. Lastly, the Bills' return game has struck fear into opponents who do not want to kick off to Brandon Codrington and must be equally weary of what he can do with punts.

For Jacksonville, special teams begins with an analysis of 2024 212th overall pick Cam Little. He has made 6/7 kicks this season with his sole miss coming from 43 yards out last week. He deserves much the same skepticism as Bass but by all accounts has a bright future. In the kicking room with him is the phenomenal Logan Cooke. Through two weeks he has produced an impressive 47.7 net yards per punt with 44.4% landing inside the 20. Lastly is the return game where the most important figure to note is Devin Duvernay and his punt return abilities. He is just four punt returns shy of qualifying for career leaderboards where, assuming he maintains his current pace, his 12.6 yards per punt return average will rank third in NFL history. If the Bills do have to punt, punting away from Duvernay is integral as he will be a major X-Factor on Monday.

ADVANTAGE: Jaguars 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

Jacksonville has been a wonky opponent for the Bills as of late and this is one of those games that the Bills traditionally find a way to lose. Trevor Lawrence does possess talent, despite what his career statistics may suggest, and he does have the skill players to distribute the ball to. Assuming he can get some protection, he has the ability to change the game with his arm alone. He also can do some of that with his legs, something he may be more apt to do with the Jaguars' season on the line in an effort to contribute to a banged-up rushing attack.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars edge rushers combine to have game-wrecking abilities. Whether that be by crashing down on the run or getting to a quarterback early and often, they will be an issue. Add to that Josh Allen’s injured left hand and ball security will be a major concern for the Bills when they do inevitably beat the Buffalo tackles. The counter to this is the run game, which is something Jacksonville is very good against. Expect their linebackers to come downhill and try and force the Bills to get pass-happy as the most obvious path to victory to an otherwise meek Jaguars defense.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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The Bills have proven they can beat teams in any way they desire. Through the air, on the ground, or via its defense, Buffalo looks uniquely dangerous in 2024. Allen has been elite through the air through the first two weeks of the season and has yet to fully unleash his abilities as a passer. This week could be the week to do just that with Jacksonville’s issues at corner, so expect a heavy dose of Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, each of whom will have mismatches. Further, there is no reason to expect James Cook to slow down, so Buffalo does have a counter as well as an ace up its sleeve in Allen’s rushing abilities if it must call on it.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills can win this game in the trenches alone. Buffalo’s defensive line has looked elite early in the season and by all accounts is significantly better than the Jaguars' offensive line. With pressure off the edge and up the middle, the Bills should have their way up front which bodes well with an opportunistic back seven. Lawrence has proven to be turnover-prone throughout his career and with the desperation expected of Jacksonville and the bad vibes in that locker room, don’t be surprised if Buffalo forces multiple turnovers on Monday night.

Prediction: Bills 31 – Jaguars 14

This game has all the makings of a blowout which of course is terrifying for Bills fans to hear considering this is also the game Buffalo traditionally loses. But this isn’t the same Buffalo team. The vibes seem high and the ways in which they can beat opponents are numerous. There are very real fears of what Christian Kirk and Evan Engram (if active) could do in the intermediate game given Buffalo’s injuries, but a similar fear existed against the Dolphins. Furthermore, Buffalo has a massive advantage on the offensive side of the ball with its passing attack poised to break out against a weak and underwhelming Jaguars secondary. Buffalo wins in blowout fashion heading into a massive Sunday night game against the Ravens next week.

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