Chiefs vs. Bills NFL Week 11 Preview: Round No. 8

The Buffalo Bills go head to head with the Kansas City Chiefs in a critical Week 11 NFL contest.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Nov 15, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s 11th edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 11 clash with the Kansas City Chiefs. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Chiefs Pass Defense

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Since Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills' ascension to perennial contention in 2020, the premier game of every NFL season has been the Bills vs. the Chiefs. In that span, these two teams have met seven times, with Kansas City holding a 4-3 lead in the series (with three of those wins coming in the postseason). The focal point of each clash has obviously been the quarterback duel that consistently unfolds between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Arguably the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, Allen and Mahomes have accounted for 195 and 164 touchdowns, respectively, since 2020, while no other quarterback in the league has surpassed 140. On Sunday, in Chapter VIII of this legendary saga, Allen and Mahomes will yet again go toe-to-toe in a contest that could have major ramifications on the AFC landscape. The question for Buffalo is whether its offense will have enough firepower to contend with the elite defense of the Super Bowl-favorite Chiefs.

That offense is set to take the field without rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman for the second consecutive week while Amari Cooper (WR) and Dalton Kincaid (TE) head into Sunday questionable to play. That will ramp up Buffalo’s reliance on players like Khalil Shakir (WR), Mack Hollins (WR), and Dawson Knox (TE) against the NFL’s ninth-ranked pass defense (-4.5% DVOA). With major injuries in play, the Chiefs match up well with Buffalo as their versatile pieces in the secondary allow them to mix and match alignments to their advantage. Most critical among them is 2023 All-Pro Trent McDuffie, who can play both inside and outside as one of the league’s top nickel corners. The Chiefs very well may increase McDuffie’s slot rate this week in order to mitigate Allen’s easy button in Shakir while they lean on the rest of their defense to contain the auxiliary pieces of Buffalo’s air attack. That includes safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook, who make attacking deep a tenuous undertaking at best while Nazeeh Johnson and Chamarri Conner patrol underneath. It’s those two who Buffalo will need to identify and target often if they expect to have success in the passing game, something Steve Spagnuolo will surely have a counter for. A healthy Bills team would have multiple mismatches against this Chiefs secondary, but in their current state, the pendulum is shifting the way of Kansas City.

Injuries may further hinder Buffalo’s abilities as their ability to protect their quarterback may take a hit if right tackle Spencer Brown can’t go on Sunday. His backup, Tylan Grable, is also on injured reserve, meaning that Buffalo would have to settle for their RT3 in Ryan Van Demark to protect Allen’s strong side. By no means a slouch, Van Demark is still far from the player that Brown is, and against a Chiefs team that likes to bring the pressure presents as another weak point in this matchup. But the Chiefs won’t rely on this one potential mismatch to ramp up pressure on Allen as they have consistent rushers across the entire front of their defense. Among them are All-World defensive tackle Chris Jones, ascending edge rusher George Karlaftis, and even the newly acquired Josh Uche. On top of all of that, Kansas City has a history of bringing the blitz and currently ranks third in the NFL with a 34.5% blitz rate. How and when Spagnuolo dials that up and what Joe Brady gives Allen and company to counter it will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Chiefs Rush Defense

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The Bills, much like the Chiefs, are a borderline run-first team. Their run-to-pass ratio is currently 0.92 as they are leaning into running the ball more consistently this year than they have in seasons past. Much of this is due to an offensive line that is providing its running backs plenty of cushion to get moving on the ground, with Bills runners averaging a solid 1.56 yards before contact per run. This has allowed James Cook and Ray Davis to utilize their differing styles to pick up consistent yardage. Cook, in turn, is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt while Davis is averaging 4.2 in his own right. This is the key to Buffalo producing a potent offense and, against a team like the Chiefs, could be a requirement to produce consistent offensive output.

But the Chiefs are really good at defending the run, coming into this game ranked third in Rush Defense DVOA (-25.2%). They are giving up just 3.7 yards per attempt, second best in the NFL, because of their two-pronged approach to stopping the run. On the one hand, they have a dominant front that has the ability to not only sustain blocks, but push into the opposing backfield. Chris Jones' abilities against the run are well documented but the unsung hero for the Chiefs is Tershawn Wharton. Though undersized at 6’1” and 280 pounds, Wharton has been a B-Gap menace this season and is consistently playing at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield. That also helps the Chiefs linebackers stay clean, which only improves their ability to stop the run. Both Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill have had excellent starts to their season, with Bolton’s eight tackles for loss ranking second amongst off-ball linebackers behind only Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (10). Add to both of these a set of defensive backs that aren’t just good tacklers, but willing ones, and you have a defense that makes it incredibly difficult to run against.

The Bills, however, do have a wildcard, and a wildcard who seems poised to break out in this game. That wildcard is none other than Josh Allen, who has been fairly muted on the ground this season but has a history of taking off more against the Chiefs than any other opponent. In his seven career games against Kansas City, Allen is averaging 10.1 rushing attempts per game as he takes off early and often. In past contests, this has led to key first downs that extended drives and allowed Buffalo’s offense to maintain pace with a high-powered Chiefs offense. More of the same will be needed this week as both literally and figuratively, it’s about time the glove came off for Buffalo’s star quarterback.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Chiefs Pass Offense

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Two of the NFL's most underrated defensive backs just so happen to be rostered by Buffalo. The first of those two is Christian Benford, who outside of Buffalo remains relatively unknown, but for those paying attention has made a statement as one of the league’s best cornerbacks. He’s given up under 200 yards in pass coverage this season while his name appears in the top five of almost every advanced metric for cornerbacks. The second underrated player is none other than Taron Johnson, who despite getting his flowers as an All-Pro and Week 10 Defensive Player of the Week remains a relatively underrated defensive player overall. When Johnson is on the field, the Bills' defense is significantly better, as they give up 4.8 fewer points per game and show an improved effort to slow down the run and contain the pass. His presence this week will be even more important as that dual ability will be necessary to slow down the complementary Chiefs offense.

It's an offense led by arguably the greatest quarterback of all time in Patrick Mahomes. He doesn’t have the stats to back up that moniker this season, but the skill is quite obviously still there. More importantly for the Chiefs, the connection between Mahomes and Trevis Kelce is heating up as the season goes along. In the past three games, Kelce has had 10-plus targets, eight-plus receptions, and 60+ receiving yards in each game as the Chiefs' clear top weapon has found the fountain of youth. How Buffalo defends him will be as important as any other aspect of this game, with Kansas City and Kelce having a history of dicing up the Bills. Outside of Kelce, the only other major weapon for Kansas City is the newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins who is likely to only get better the longer he is with the Chiefs. While he may not be the player he once was, Hopkins still can flash the skillset that is likely to have him one day enshrined in Canton. One more player worth paying attention to is Xavier Worthy, whom the Chiefs acquired after making a trade with the Bills on the first night of the 2024 NFL Draft. He may be having a rough go of it in his rookie season, but Kansas City plays the mental game better than any team in the NFL, and feeding Worthy in this game is a perfect way to win that game.

For the Bills, mitigating the ability of Mahomes to get the ball to any of his weapons will most likely rely on their ability to win in the trenches. Accomplishing that in the interior seems like a non-starter with the Bills' struggles at defensive tackle and the Chiefs' elite trio of Joe Thuney (LG), Creed Humphrey (C), and Trey Smith (RG), but the outside is a different story. Greg Rousseau in particular has been one of the league’s better defensive ends and matching him up against either Wanya Morris (LT) or Jawaan Taylor (RT) seems like a winning recipe for Buffalo. The only major question for the Bills in that regard is whether their secondary can buy Rousseau half a second more to get to Mahomes. That also applies to AJ Epenesa, who is off to a quietly solid start to the season, as well as Von Miller, who has played well this season when available.

ADVANTAGE: Chiefs 👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Chiefs Rush Offense

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If the Bills have one bugaboo, it is clearly their inability to stop the run. The root cause of this particular issue seems to stem from the poor play of Buffalo’s interior defensive line. Whether it’s the inability to maintain lane integrity or to keep the linebackers free of blockers, Buffalo’s defensive tackle group has been downright bad this season. That includes Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, and Austin Johnson, which ultimately led to the Bills looking for outside help. Thus, they brought in Quinton Jefferson and Jordan Phillips, two ex-Bills, to sure up the core of their defense. The group turned in a solid showing against a potent Colts rushing attack last week, but more remains to be seen prior to confidence increasing for this bunch in any marketable way. This week, however, if that confidence does not increase, post-game is likely to be coupled with a third loss appended to the Bills' record.

The Chiefs may not have the best rushing attack in the NFL, but they do have an efficient one. Due to injuries to Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs were forced to shift to Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele, who have been solid in their given roles. Yes, they each have a sub-4.0 yard per attempt, and yes, the longest run for a Chiefs running back this season is 15 yards, but they still pose a major problem for the Bills this week. Both Hunt and Steele run downhill and consistently pick up at least a few yards. Doing this on early downs has been a key to Kansas City’s success, as it often deals with second-and-medium and third-and-short situations which allows it to play ahead of the sticks. This will likely force Bobby Babich to dial up early down run blitzes in order to keep Kansas City in “long to go” situations. There are a ton of factors that will go into determining this game, included in them is Buffalo’s young defensive coordinator’s ability to determine when to dial up pressure, and when to sit back in coverage.

Kansas City also has a ton of other ways it can generate rushing yards, which includes its wide receivers and quarterback. Xavier Worthy has nine rushes this season while Mecole Hardman has another two as Kansas City looks for unique ways to get the ball into its speedy receivers’ hands. This will force Buffalo’s defensive ends to rush with integrity while linebackers Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams look to attack the Chiefs intelligently. Making matters more difficult for Buffalo is that even the Chiefs' quarterback can pick up yards, and in the process first downs, on the ground. While Mahomes may not have the abilities of a Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or Josh Allen with his legs, his ability to extend drives on the ground is uncanny. Buffalo may need to leverage a spy on passing downs for that reason, which will make Bernard and/or Williams more critical than normal for this game.

ADVANTAGE: Chiefs 👏👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Chiefs Special Teams

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Tyler Bass may be all the way back. It isn’t just that he is making all his kicks, it’s how he's doing it. Whether short or deep, Bass piped every kick down the middle against the Colts last week. But that may all be for naught as Bass is set to go up against the team that was a key cause of his drop in confidence. How Bass performs against the Chiefs will say a lot about how confident the Bills should be about their kicker moving forward. As for the rest of their special teams, Sam Martin continues to be an impressive asset at punter while Brandon Codrington should be considered a dangerous return man despite his fumble in Week 10.

The Chiefs come into this game with a major question mark at kicker. Harrison Butker, who was well on his way to an All-Pro nod, was placed on injured reserve on Thursday and will be replaced by Spencer Shrader. The 25-year-old Shrader has kicked for the Colts and Jets this season, drilling all five of his kicks including three extra points and two field goals with a long of 45. Despite his perfect record thus far, losing a weapon like Butker should be considered a massive loss and could single-handedly flip the advantage on special teams. As for punter, the Chiefs rely on former Bills draft pick, Matt Araiza, who has been impressive in his first year playing in the NFL. A 50.5 yards per punt coupled with a 42.0 net yards per punt are both solid numbers and ones comparable to above-average punters in the NFL. Lastly for the Chiefs is their return game, where the primary person worth writing home about is Mecole Hardman. The veteran, who earned a second-team All-Pro in 2019 due to his abilities as a kick returner, has been a solid return man for Kansas City this season and should be considered dangerous any time he gets the ball in his hands on return.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The Chiefs are masters of identifying the weaknesses of their opponents and developing a strategy to take advantage of them. On offense, that means attacking the middle of Buffalo’s defense over and over again both through the air and on the ground. Expect Kansas City to run up the middle an annoying amount as it forces Buffalo to prove it can stop them. When they can, if they can, the pivot will be to feed Travis Kelce over the middle with specific eyes on getting him into Dorian Williams' zone. This may not be the same high-flying Chiefs offense of seasons past, but what they lack in explosiveness they make up for in annoyances.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas City is well aware of Buffalo’s injuries at receiver and, as a result, seem poised to bring the blitz. Doing so will force Allen to get rid of the ball far earlier than he may need to and could result in a handful of bad decisions from a quarterback who has made very few of them this season. That blitz should also allow Kansas City to further contain the rushing attack of the Bills, who may lack many counters to this Chiefs defense. Most teams would pivot to the screen game, something the Bills have struggled with during the Allen administration, calling into question Buffalo’s abilities to put up significant points this week.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Home-field advantage should play a factor this week as the Bills very clearly play better at home than they do on the road. This provides Allen with a greater ability to identify defenses pre-snap and adjust accordingly. Buffalo will desperately need this and also need at least one of Amari Cooper or Dalton Kincaid to take the field to provide a second top-end option outside of Khalil Shakir in the passing game. All-in-all, this has all the makings of a Josh Allen Game for the Bills and one they will need him to win if they have any chance of coming away victorious.

Defensively, they do have some help available to them as the Bills have been a turnover-producing machine this season. Kansas City will do everything in its power to prevent that but if Buffalo can come away with a lucky bounce or two, it may be able to control the game script of this game. The Bills do have an advantage on the sidelines with their two elite corners as well as the edges of the defensive line with Greg Rousseau and Von Miller, which could come into play depending on how this game plays out early. Buffalo has a defensive path to victory and in a game that has all the makings of a tight contest, the number of unique paths to victory improve your chances.

Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23

This prediction is by no means an indictment on the Bills, more so a temporary understanding of the current state of both teams. By comparison, the Chiefs are relatively healthy as Buffalo struggles with major injuries and will be without its best defensive player in Matt Milano. By a potential second meeting in January, that narrative has a good possibility of shifting and in a contest between a nearly 100% healthy Bills and 100% healthy Chiefs team, this prediction may shift. That being said, the injury to Harrison Butker looms large, so would I be stunned to see a missed field goal resulting in a Bills 21 and Chiefs 20-point game? Absolutely not.

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