Bills vs. Dolphins NFL Week 2 Preview: An Early Pivotal Clash

The Buffalo Bills head down to Miami to yet again stake their claim as the King of the AFC East.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Sep 12, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose," “Why Buffalo Will Win," and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s second edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 2 clash with the Miami Dolphins. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Dolphins Pass Defense

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Buffalo's offense didn't miss a beat in its first game sans Stefon Diggs since 2019. Josh Allen proved to be surgical on just 23 passing attempts, accounting for a completion percentage of 78.3% while producing 232 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Statistically, it was far from the most productive passing attack of the NFL’s Week 1 slate, but it was a perfect demonstration of the Bills “Everyone Eats” mentality. Nine different players would finish the game with at least one catch, with only one player receiving more than three targets (Keon Coleman with five). To be fair, this was all done against an underwhelming Cardinals' pass defense, but nonetheless, Josh Allen's second-best passer rating (137.7) since 2022 was indicative of an impressive outing. Of note, the only game since 2022 where Allen has had a better passer rating came in Week 4 of last season when he produced a perfect 158.3 rating against the…Miami Dolphins.

On Thursday night, the Bills just so happen to play that team as they head to South Beach to take on a somewhat overhauled Miami defense. Out is defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and in is Anthony Weaver, who brings with him a new scheme as well as multiple new starters that just held the Jaguars under 150 net passing yards. Jalen Ramsey (CB) and Jevon Holland (SAF) return as elite defensive backs that will make it difficult for Allen and company to attack Ramsey’s sideline as well as a deep third of the field. As a result, expect Buffalo to attack alternative lanes early in the game and try to generate mismatches that force Miami to move Ramsey and Holland to less advantageous positions. Among the mismatches Buffalo will look to facilitate is Khalil Shakir on Dolphins' nickel defender Kader Kohou, as well as Dalton Kincaid and/or James Cook on any of Miami’s linebackers. Each potential mismatch presents an athletic advantage for Buffalo that it could exploit and, in turn, should improve its ability to attack downfield with hopes of catching the likes of Jordan Poyer (SAF), Kendall Fuller (CB), and others off guard. By no means an easy matchup for the Bills' skill players but one where there are opportunities to be had.

Where Miami could quickly change the flow of this game is in the trenches via a consistent pass rush. Forcing Allen to make ill-advised throws is the most obvious path to victory for Miami this week, and the pass rush is how it accomplishes that. In Week 1, the Dolphins had three players with sacks in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Calais Campbell (DT), and Jaelan Phillips (DE) while Buffalo’s offensive line occasionally struggled against a subpar Cardinals pass rush. Most concerning for the Bills was sophomore right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who had issues on multiple plays and this week will go up against Zach Sieler (DT) as well as the aforementioned Campbell in the interior. Allen has proven to be elite at escaping an interior pass rush in particular, but when that is coupled with a solid edge rush (which Miami has), it can present issues for Buffalo’s QB1. In Buffalo’s past 20 games, Allen has only been sacked more than twice in 15% of those games; Miami has the ability to up that percentage this week.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Dolphins Rush Defense

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Buffalo’s ground attack shined against the Cardinals as it attacked Arizona early and often on the ground with success in Week 1. James Cook (71) and Josh Allen (39) combined for over 100 yards on the ground while the quarterback accounted for two rushing touchdowns, each coming from beyond five yards out. The ground attack was part of a complementary offense that caused issues for Arizona and projects to cause issues for many teams moving forward. Of course, there is the matter of Allen’s injured left hand, which may change things moving forward. Will the quarterback sneaks be available? Will he be able to secure the ball both in and out of the pocket? Is he less apt to run considering the hits he, and that hand, could take? It will be a concern moving forward and until we know otherwise is something Miami could take advantage of on a short week.

That Dolphins team played well against both the run and the pass in Week 1 but if they struggled more against one, it was the run. Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne combined for 117 yards on 24 carries, a yards per attempt of 4.9. The Bills' rushing attack is widely considered to be better than the Jaguars, even ignoring Allen’s impact in that context, and is something that you should expect Buffalo to lean into this week. Buffalo’s sub-packages that include Mack Hollins (WR), Dawson Knox (TE), and Dalton Kincaid (TE) put opposing defenses into disadvantageous positions, as all are more than adequate blockers as well as skill players. Look for Buffalo to use those packages to force Miami’s safeties to respect the pass while it targets a duo of linebackers for the Dolphins that Cook, in particular, matches up with well. Those linebackers are Jordyn Brooks and David Long who combined for 12 tackles last week but zero tackles for loss as Bigsby and Etienne consistently picked up positive yardage.

Buffalo does have a couple of aces in the hole that it may expose this week, the obvious one being Allen’s abilities on the ground and his propensity to extend drives and/or find the endzone. As previously stated, that hand is a concern, but come game time, everyone knows Allen’s wacky subconscious takes hold when it concerns his well-being. After Allen, though, Bills fans are waiting for Joe Brady and company to activate Curtis Samuel out of the backfield. Buffalo worked on it in camp for a reason, and despite Samuel’s minor turf toe, it's something Buffalo could rely on this week. If Miami’s edge rushers get overzealous, which is something Buffalo expects in this heated matchup, its counter punch is a jet sweep to Samuel, who has the speed to hit a home run from behind the line of scrimmage.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Dolphins Pass Offense

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The Bills Pass Defense got gashed in the first half of their game against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray went 16/21 (76.2%) passing and accounted for 131 Net Yards and a passing touchdown. The second half was quite the opposite as Murray would go only 5/10 (50.0%) for 15 Net Yards and a lost fumble. It couldn’t have started much worse for the Bills' new-look defense and couldn’t have ended much better. The pass rush began to find ways to get home, the coverage got tighter, and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich unleashed multiple disguised coverages and blitz packages. For as bad as the Cardinals' defense is, they have a more than competent offense with a slew of talented players; this was a good start, with a different monster waiting for Buffalo this week.

That monster consists of arguably the fastest offense assembled in NFL history and a quarterback who knows how to deliver the ball to them. In its first game of the season, Miami leaned into exactly that as 17 of Tua Tagovailoa’s 23 completions found their way to De’Von Achane (seven), Tyreek Hill (seven), and Jaylen Waddle (five), a trio that also accounted for 93.2% of Miami’s yardage through the air. Those three are the ones Buffalo will key on Thursday night as it attempts to take them away with brackets and linebackers dropping to their spots. Look for Buffalo to be physical on the edges with Rasul Douglas possibly shadowing Hill while Christian Benford looks to key on Waddle. The goal is to force Miami to win outside of those players with the Dolphins' counter available against an inexperienced linebacker group and at slot corner where the Bills will be without All-Pro Taron Johnson. This means more passes to running backs and tight ends, assuming the Bills' back end holds up against Hill and Waddle. A game of chess will be played between Sean McDermott and Mike McDaniel this game, and if we are being fair, McDaniel has the better pieces here.

Where Buffalo can turn the tide of this game is in the trenches where it has a fairly significant advantage. Its edges will have to contend with the strength of Miami’s offensive line in Terron Armstead (LT) and Austin Jackson (RT) but seem up to the task. Each will be coached to get their arms up to bat down quick releases by Tagovailoa, something that they excel at. A.J. Epenesa led defensive linemen in batted balls in 2023 and reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week Greg Rousseau has always had freakish length but now also the poise to have a breakout season. Things get better on the inside for Buffalo where Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones present a massive mismatch for Robert Jones (LG), Aaron Brewer (C), and Liam Eichenberg (RG). Buffalo’s path to victory if its offense struggles for whatever reason is right here, and it’s also its path to shattering this game for a hopeful Miami team.

ADVANTAGE: Dolphins 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Dolphins Rush Offense

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The Bills had their hands full in Week 1 against the Cardinals who came off a 2023 season where they finished fourth in rushing yards (139 yards per game) and second in yards per attempt (5.0). Buffalo proceeded to hold them to 124 yards and a yards per attempt of 5.0, an average game against the Cardinals. But what was impressive and better fits the context of Buffalo’s upcoming game is that they held the Cardinals running backs to just 63 rushing yards and a yards per attempt of just 3.3. Buffalo accomplished this by controlling the line of scrimmage and relying on third-year linebacker Terrel Bernard’s ability to come downhill and make plays at or near the line of scrimmage. He finished the game with 11 tackles and six run stops and will be relied on to do even more this week.

That is because Buffalo is set to take on 2023's most efficient rushing attack. Miami averaged a league-best 5.1 yards per rush attempt in 2023 almost exclusively via running backs. The two primary runners that contributed to that were De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, who averaged 7.8 and 4.8 yards per carry respectively last season. The problem for Miami is that Mostert has already been declared out for Thursday night’s contest against Buffalo while Achane remains questionable. If Achane can go, he will be a massive issue for a Bills defense that has been susceptible to big runs, but if he cannot go, Miami does have a solid duo of backup running backs. That duo will feature Jeff Wilson, who led the Dolphins in rushing yards last week (26), as well as rookie Jaylen Wright, who was inactive in the first week of the season. Wilson is a more than competent back who can pick up yardage at a solid clip, but it is Wright who is most intriguing. The Dolphins traded a future third to snag him in the 2024 NFL Draft because of the upside they saw in Wright. He has the power and speed to take over the NFL in a big way, and he may have the opportunity to break out this week.

Outside of the traditional run, there isn’t much to write home about for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa is far from a dual-threat quarterback; however, if he does see a wide-open lane, he can eke out a quick first down. After him, you may see Miami try to feed Hill, or even Waddle, on sweeps but it’s far from the bread and butter of its offense. It all fits together for Miami though, and there is a method to the madness at all times. The Dolphins use motion, misdirection, and unique packages to force teams to expose lanes that otherwise should not be there. That puts an extra focus on the Bills' defensive tackles in Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones as well as their linebackers in Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams to maintain gap integrity. The weak point of that interior is clearly Williams, so expect Miami to run at him over and over again with the hopes that he will leak out of his gap, something he has had a propensity to do in his young career.

ADVANTAGE: Dolphins 👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Dolphins Special Teams

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The Bills' special teams units played well in Week 1... well, kind of. They struggled mightily on kickoff, primarily at getting the ball to a spot that was beneficial for them, even giving up a bad kickoff return touchdown. Some blame can be placed on the wind, but the expectation moving forward will be that they attempt to kick the ball out of the back of the endzone always. Outside of that, Tyler Bass was a perfect six-of-six on kicks, Sam Martin averaged 39.5 net yards per punt, and Brandon Codrington flashed. The latter of that bunch is by far the most exciting contributor as his 53-yard kick return will now force teams to think twice about keeping the ball out of the endzone on kickoff.

Miami had a similar, albeit slightly better, game by their special teams. Jason Sanders finished four-of-five on kicks including a missed 42-yard field goal that he made up for later by nailing the 52-yard game-winner. Jake Bailey also contributed with three of his four punts being downed inside the opposing 15-yard line. As for return, Miami didn’t have the option to return a kick in Week 1 but did try both Braxton Berrios and Tyreek Hill out at punt return. With Berrios far from his All-Pro level of play as a returner, it is intriguing that Miami used Hill in that role in the first week of the season. It is something to monitor and something to be fearful of if Buffalo must punt on Thursday.

ADVANTAGE: Dolphins 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

Miami is the more desperate and possibly hungrier team heading into Thursday night. The team itself has fully acknowledged that until they take the division from Buffalo, it belongs to Buffalo. With that mentality, a loss at home this early in the season will result in a massive drop in confidence for a team that believes they are destined for far greater than just an AFC East title. But desperation can facilitate elite play and with the Dolphins' plethora of home run hitters, even a desperate play can mean six points. Look for them to try and attack Buffalo’s new safety duo as well as their backup nickel and linebacker as the obvious weak points on defense. If those can’t hold up, we may have an old-fashioned shootout on our hands.

On the other side of the ball, Miami has two game wreckers in Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland who are going to be eyeing a turnover all day. Of course, that is generally more likely to come in the air but with Josh Allen’s left-hand injury, fumbles will be a very large concern, either forced or on the snap, for the entirety of Thursday night’s game. That will be the primary focus of the Dolphins as they will also need to make tackles against the Bills' rushing attack but with Jordyn Brooks, David Long, and Zach Sieler, there is little reason to believe that will be an impossible task for them.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Buffalo has owned the Dolphins as of late. Josh Allen has owned the Dolphins always. That plays mind games with a team, something Bills fans are well aware of after being tortured for nearly two decades by an all-time great. Until Miami can prove that it can slow down Allen and company, there is no reason to expect it to slow down Allen and company. Despite his hand injury, expect him to feed all his hungry receivers while Buffalo also leans on the ground game against a front that can at times be shaky against the run.

On defense, much like offense, Buffalo’s mental advantage is strong. For as well as Allen plays against the Dolphins, Tagovailoa plays poorly. To some extent, the Bills and Sean McDermott’s scheme seem to be in the quarterback's head and force him to take just a bit longer to get rid of the ball. The Bills will blitz, they will disguise zone-based spies, and they will rely on their size and skill advantage in the trenches to make things difficult for the Dolphins' passer. Miami needs at least 28 points to win this game, and Buffalo has all the makings of a team that can prevent it from hitting that total.

Prediction: Bills 28 – Dolphins 24

This game is going to be close, it just has to be. It’s in Miami, Buffalo is without its two best defenders, and its superstar quarterback may be playing with one hand tied behind his back. Now is Miami’s time to make a statement but until it makes it, there isn’t a reason to expect it. It would be unsurprising if the Dolphins won this game, but it would also be unsurprising if Josh Allen takes the Bills down to Miami only to leave as the leader of the AFC East and with another win on their record. I’ll bank on that, and bank on that if that happens, Miami may begin a downward spiral.

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Published Sep 12, 2024

HANS A. HANSEN LLL