49ers vs. Bills NFL Week 13 Preview: Let it snow

The Buffalo Bills are set to host the San Francisco 49ers in a win-and-in game for the home team.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Nov 30, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s 12th edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 13 clash with the San Francisco 49ers. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. 49ers Pass Defense

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Josh Allen’s impressive season has been the primary driver to Buffalo’s best start through 11 games since 1992. He ranks third in QBR (73.2) and fifth in QuBeR (67.34) as his domination through the air and on the ground has led the Bills to average 29.1 points per game, which is third most in the NFL. For the most part, Buffalo has done this while struggling with injuries at key skill positions, as Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid have all missed time at points this season. Buffalo continues to roll regardless, and, as a result, has a realistic path to the top seed in the AFC. That of course would require Kansas City to drop at least one more game this season while the Bills maintain momentum down the homestretch of the 2024 campaign. The first obstacle in that journey will be the San Francisco 49ers, who head to Orchard Park for a primetime matchup with the Bills on Sunday night.

At 5-6, the 49ers are in full desperation mode but have a pass defense that has shown the ability to dominate this season. Coming into this game, they rank third in Pass Defense DVOA (-13.4%) while giving up just 13 pass touchdowns and forcing 11 interceptions. The key to their success against the pass is a secondary that features a dynamic trio of playmakers in Deommodore Lenoir (CB), Ji’Ayir Brown (S), and Malik Mustapha (S). Lenoir, who primarily plays out of the slot, is the key to the 49ers' success at slowing down the pass, but he's been ruled out for Sunday's bout. The emphasis at cornerback, thus, shifts to Isacc Yiadom, Rock Ya-Sin, and Charvarius Ward. Ward, who is in line to return after dealing with an off-field family tragedy, will be a player the Bills key on this week as he possesses game-changing abilities as one of the league’s premier shutdown corners. Behind him, things get even more dicey as San Francisco’s pair of safeties is amongst the most underappreciated in the NFL. Ji’ayir Brown, a versatile chess piece that can play deep or in the box, and Malik Mustapha, your more traditional “last line of defense” safety, are players Buffalo must avoid in this game. Testing them deep may not be a winning strategy but getting them in one-on-one situations in space has the ability to generate success.

Where success can exponentially grow is by taking advantage of the 49ers' weak defensive line. Their two biggest threats are Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd, who have 7.0 and 6.5 sacks off the edge respectively this season. Floyd has been hot as of late with 3.5 sacks in the past two games while Bosa has already been ruled out with a hip injury. Without Bosa, the 49ers lack any real elite threat in the trenches which could be a major issue against Buffalo’s solid offensive line and a quarterback who avoids sacks better than anyone else in the NFL. The 49ers will desperately need Sam Okuayinonu (DE) or Maliek Collins (DT) to step up in a big way Sunday night or Allen will be left with plenty of time to deal from the pocket. Against a quarterback of Allen’s caliber, that isn’t just a losing strategy, it’s a disastrous one.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. 49ers Rush Defense

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The Bills' run game has been very good this season, but against the Chiefs, that ground attack was further enhanced when the Bills proverbially “released the beast." The beast, of course, was Josh Allen, who ran the ball a season-high 12 times and accounted for 55 yards (including a 26-yard touchdown run to seal the game). Now following Buffalo’s bye week, Allen has been completely removed from the injury list, meaning both his injured ankle and hand are seemingly healed. Buffalo may not fully lean on that skillset for the remainder of the regular season but the added threat of a healthy Allen, who can take off at will from here on out, should only make their rushing attack led by James Cook more dangerous.

This week, that rushing attack will look to pick up yards against an up-and-down San Francisco rush defense. On the season the 49ers have given up just 4.2 yards per carry but also the third most rushing touchdowns (16). The up of this unit is caused by their linebackers, who make it incredibly difficult to find space to operate. Of course that includes arguably the best linebacker in the NFL, Fred Warner, who despite playing on a fractured ankle is well on his way to the fourth All-Pro selection of his career. Warner is a do-it-all player who is a perfect counter to the speed and agility of James Cook as well as the ad-hoc threat Josh Allen presents on the ground. Next to him typically is De’Vondre Campbell, who was an All-Pro in his own right in 2021, but has regressed each season since. Now 31, Campbell’s athleticism seems to be diminishing, and though he can still be a solid contributor against the run, he does so with obvious limitations. This is a difficult matchup for most teams, the Bills included, but Buffalo does have the horses to expose a few vulnerabilities that the 49ers present.

Those vulnerabilities will be further exacerbated by an offensive line for Buffalo that leans on their athleticism to create holes for their runners to attack. In particular, Dion Dawkins (LT), Spencer Brown (RT), and Connor McGovern (C) have all shown a propensity to win in space and dominate second-level defenders. This week those abilities could be on display further due to San Francisco’s struggles in the interior of their defensive line. Maliek Collins is a solid player who can cause some issues for opponents, but outside of him, the depth chart is relatively bare. Jordan Elliott is a decent player but one who will be at a disadvantage to Buffalo’s interior offensive line. Kevin Givens has built himself a nice career as a rotational player but has a groin injury which should further limit his abilities, even if he plays. After that, there is no significant NFL talent on the 49ers roster, while the edges are equally deficient in both depth and run-stopping abilities. For that reason, the Bills may pursue interior runs early and often while San Francisco struggles to find any real answer to counter that threat.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. 49ers Pass Offense

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The Bills' secondary has far outperformed expectations set for them heading into the season. With Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp at safety, they have reduced opponents' abilities to hit deep passes. With Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas on the outside, opposing receivers have had issues consistently getting open against the Bills. And with Taron Johnson at nickel, Buffalo’s run defense has significantly improved as well as their ability to defend interior passes, particularly to tight ends. This is just the base-level view of how Buffalo has defended the ball in the air while its linebackers have been integral as Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich have expertly mixed and matched personnel packages to their benefit. Still, it seems as though Buffalo has more to offer in this regard and is set to unleash all new wrinkles in situations when they are necessary.

Those wrinkles may or may not be needed this week depending on who is quarterbacking the 49ers. It is possible it will be Brandon Allen as Brock Purdy is dealing with a shoulder injury, but Purdy looks set to return Sunday night. Should the third-year field general go, there is a chance that the 49ers timing-based offense could be effective against the Bills. Assuming it is Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall all are unique enough players that they could become mismatches in certain alignments. More dangerous is arguably the NFL’s best tight end, George Kittle, whose physical skillet could pose problems for the Bills smaller than average back-seven. There is an argument to be made for each of these teams finding success in this particular matchup, but the tides turn significantly when the battle shifts to the trenches.

There are 49ers who are also dealing with injuries and may struggle to keep whichever quarterback takes the field clean. Aaron Banks (LG) and several-time All-Pro Trent Williams (LT) have been ruled out, meaning that players like Spencer Buford (OG) and Jaylon Moore (OT) may see the field more often on Sunday, both of whom would struggle against Buffalo’s defensive front. Greg Rousseau has been borderline elite this season while a rotation that includes Von Miller, Javon Solomon, and AJ Epenesa has also generated pressure off the edge. And if the Chiefs game is any indication of what could be, the Bills' interior defensive line has a chance to be as equally dominant as their outside counterparts. Regardless of which quarterback plays for the 49ers on Sunday struggles could be had if their offensive line can’t keep them clean.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense

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The perception of the Bills' run defense is that they’re a porous unit that is amongst the worst in the league, but what if they aren’t? Is it possible that that perception is skewed by a single play this season? Yes, they rank 30th in yards per attempt against, but the number is inclusive of an outlier in Derrick Henry’s 87-yard touchdown scamper to begin Buffalo’s game against the Ravens in Week 4. Removing that play, and that play alone, drops their yards per attempt against from 4.85 to 4.54, which is a middling average on the season. Further evidence of Buffalo’s acceptable play against the run includes giving up the third-least rushing touchdowns (six), seventh fewest rushing first downs (64), and ranking seventh in rush defense DVOA (-20.5%). Yes, they are far from perfect, but the perception of them as a unit is far from the reality of how this unit has played overall.

This week, though, Buffalo may have its hands full as San Francisco seems prepared to lean into the run in a game that could be heavily affected by the weather. Christian McCaffrey will play in his fourth game this season, and while he hasn’t looked like his pre-injured self yet. it feels like only a matter of time until he rounds back into the best running back in the NFL. If that happens this week, Buffalo will be forced to contend with a player who can put any defender on skates while possessing the physicality to fall forward. They also have a solid spell back they can call on, when necessary, in Jordan Mason, who is still tracking towards 1,000 yards in his third season in the NFL. Matching these players up with Buffalo’s linebackers is set to produce a major matchup for this game that could be a key in deciding how it turns out. For Buffalo, that means Terrel Bernard in his normal role as middle linebacker and either Matt Milano, who may be returning from injury, or Dorian Williams, who has played admirably in Milano’s stead.

Further pressure can be generated by the 49ers on the ground via auxiliary rushing pursuits, something Kyle Shanahan has proven more than willing to pursue during his time in San Francisco. Deebo Samuel, in particular, is a proven major weapon on the ground that the 49ers may need to use more heavily this week. With 27 rushing attempts on the season, Samuel still possesses game-changing abilities as a unique runner from the wide receiver position. His presence will ramp up the pressure on Buffalo corners Taron Johnson, Christian Benford, and Rasul Douglas, who all must be prepared to tackle Samuel in space. Further to that, Greg Rousseau and Buffalo’s other defensive ends must rush with integrity as the edge of the line of scrimmage will be paramount in assuring that Buffalo contains the 49ers' offense.

ADVANTAGE: 49ers 👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. 49ers Special Teams

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Tyler Bass may have a bit of his swagger back, but his lack of consistency on extra points remains a problem. His 86.4% field goal percentage is middling and ahead of players like Brandon Aubrey (83.3%) and Ka’imi Fairbairn (82.4%), while his 89.2% extra point percentage is second worst amongst qualified kickers and ahead of only Cameron Dicker (87.5%). He has some juice now but is far from all the way back. Who remains playing well, and consistently so, is Buffalo’s punter Sam Martin and return specialist Bradon Codrington. Martin continues to flip the field for Buffalo when necessary while Codrington seems to come up with a big return on punt or kick at least once per game.

The 49ers also happen to have some concerns in the kicking game as second-year kicker, Jake Moody, has struggled at points this season. He ranks 22nd among qualified kickers in field goal percentage (81.8%) but has drilled 100% of his extra points. He’s essentially automatic inside of 40 yards but struggles further out, where all four of his misses occurred. Punter Pat O’Donnell has also struggled in relief of Mitch Wishnowsky, producing a sub-40 net yards per punt as a punter susceptible to giving up returns. Further concerns exist at return, where no player has produced much. Their coverage units have given up 16.4 yards per punt return and 29.5 yards per kick return, which ranks 32nd and 26th this season respectively.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

San Francisco is far more talented than its record suggests. With players like Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle on offense, they have the ability to score points against any opponent. This week against Buffalo, a complementary approach could pose issues for a Bills team that has been susceptible to opponents that have remained a dual threat for the majority of the game. There are some concerns regarding injuries but the talent on the 49ers roster suggests they have the ability to overcome it.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have been surprisingly stout as they possess talent at every level. Much like the offense, their defense is struggling with injuries but still has players who can generate individual efforts capable of changing the trajectory of a game. Charvarius Ward and Fred Warner are in line to play, and both have been game wreckers in past games. Turnovers are the great equalizer, and San Francisco has the players that can force a couple of those.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Buffalo is far and away the superior team in this game and has more reasons to win than the 49ers do. There seems to be something wrong with the 49ers from a vibes perspective while Buffalo is riding on all-time high vibes. On offense, that means a cooking Josh Allen and a dominant James Cook doing as they please against a team they have multiple mismatches against. Winning with the skill players is possible, but winning in the trenches is implicit in this matchup.

On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo remains underrated and could get back its most dominant force in Matt Milano. With him, Buffalo’s defense would take a major leap toward a borderline elite unit but even without him, Buffalo’s defense is a problem for most opponents. The 49ers are not immune to this defense, as Buffalo’s skill in the back seven is just as good, if not better than San Francisco’s skill players while their advantage in the trenches is massive. If Buffalo plays the way it can up front this matchup is one that Buffalo very well may dominate.

Prediction: Bills 30 – 49ers 17

Weather has the ability to be the great equalizer in this game but by all accounts, the severe weather won’t be over Orchard Park come kickoff. That means the better team is the team you should expect to win this game, and the clear and obviously better team here is the Buffalo Bills. Add to that Buffalo being aware that a win here clinches its fifth consecutive AFC East title in front of its home fans, and this seems like too obvious of a game to pick anything other than Buffalo winning this one.

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