Bills vs. Seahawks NFL Week 8 Preview: Buffalo Goes West

The Buffalo Bills head to the west coast to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a Week 8 matchup.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Oct 25, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s eighth edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 8 clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Seahawks Pass Defense

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Amari Cooper may have only played 19 snaps for the Bills last Sunday, but his presence made a tangible difference against a sneaky good Titans defense. Buffalo finished with a season-high 315 net passing yards while four unique players had 50-plus receiving yards. Cooper drew attention throughout the game while on the field, and even when off, Tennessee’s scheme struggled to contain Buffalo. It was far from a flawless outing, but it was a positive step for the Bills' offense and another solid outing for Josh Allen. Speaking of Allen, through seven games he ranks first in QBR (77.6) and second in QuBeR (74.08) and is firmly in the MVP conversation. To further that agenda as well as extend their AFC East lead, Allen and the Bills will need another solid week as they travel to Seattle to take on a solid Seahawks team.

Seattle’s 14th-ranked pass defense (DVOA +5.5%) has made things difficult for opposing quarterbacks all season, and this week may be no different. There are few weak spots in their secondary, when healthy; Julian Love and Rayshawn Jenkins are one of the league’s more underrated safety duos while Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, who plays inside and out, make for a premier corner duo. After that foursome, Tre Brown rotates in as a nickel corner who plays on the outside, the problem for Seattle is plenty of these players are dealing with injuries. At points this week, Woolen and Love both have been limited in practice while Brown has been limited and his backup, Nehemiah Pritchett, is dealing with an ankle injury. The result is a compromised secondary that even with 100% availability could struggle to keep up with Buffalo’s weapons. Cooper has gained another week of practice, Keon Coleman is starting to ascend and find his role, and Khalil Shakir is getting all the healthier. Couple that with question marks at linebacker for the Seahawks (more on that later) and the Bills pass-catching abilities at tight end and running back, and Buffalo should have mismatches all day against the Seahawks.

Where Seattle can flip the script is by generating pressure in the trenches, something they have excelled at this season. Coming into this game they rank seventh in sacks (20) and fifth in quarterback hits (50) as a team that has proven capable of winning inside and outside. On the inside, 10-year veteran Leonard Williams remains a problem despite his misleading 2.5 sack total. He has produced 12 quarterback hits this season, which ranks sixth in the NFL, as Williams is winning at a consistent clip up the middle. He’s flanked by Derick Hall and Boye Mafe who have each become problems in their own right off the edge. Hall has 5.0 sacks this season and Mafe has 4.0 meaning that both Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown will have their hands full come Sunday. Getting rid of the ball quickly will be the name of the game for Buffalo, who otherwise will need to rely on Allen’s elite escape-ability to avoid costly sacks.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Seahawks Rush Defense

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Ray Davis ascended in Week 6, got hurt before Week 7, and still put up solid numbers while playing hurt. James Cook has played well all season, got hurt in Week 5, and returned in Week 7 less than 100%. Now in Week 8, both Cook and Davis appear to be healthy, thus providing Buffalo with their first real opportunity to divvy up snaps between the two in a meaningful way. Cook will remain the primary as a shifty running back with elite vision who does have decent breakaway speed, but Davis has a role. He has become Buffalo’s thumper, and with his downhill style is a player who Joe Brady and company can rely on to consistently pick up at least a yard or two. The addition of Amari Cooper is the most publicized advancement to the Bills' offense, but the pairing of Cook and Davis has a chance to pay equal dividends.

This week they will look to get their footing against the 17th-ranked rush defense by DVOA, a unit that is giving up 5.0 yards per attempt. To help sure up this part of their roster, the Seahawks made a trade this week, sending linebacker Jerome Baker to Tennessee in exchange for Ernest Jones. This may pay off eventually, but executing this trade in the middle of a week prior to a game presents some serious issues regarding ramp-up time. It’s unreasonable to expect Jones to pick up the entire playbook this week, which is something Buffalo will likely try to lean into, meaning pressure will be ramped up on Seattle’s other linebacker, ex-Bill Tyrel Dodson. To some extent, Buffalo is a run-first team and against Jones and Dodson, a run-first strategy could be an effective one.

In order for that to work though, Buffalo will also need to get past the likes of Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Dre’Mont Jones, and others. That defensive line should be on their heels for most of Sunday, though, with this game being a prime chance for Josh Allen to pick up yards with his legs. Monitor the left-hand glove in pre-game warmups. If it is present, Allen’s legs become lesser, if it is not expect a handful of designed runs including Allen’s patented QB draw. It’s difficult to decipher if Buffalo has a greater advantage on the ground or through the air in this matchup, but with its dynamic abilities on the ground, it’s difficult to find a way they can’t win while running the ball.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Seahawks Pass Offense

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There are some things the Bills need to clean up when defending the pass, but ranking 11th in Pass Defense DVOA (-0.7%) suggests they are off to an acceptable start to their season. The primary reason they rank that high, and something that doesn’t need any cleaning up, is their outside corner duo Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas. Coming into the season, few outside of Bills Mafia had ever heard of Benford and most weren’t aware of Douglas' game. That’s quickly changing as most advanced metrics suggest Benford is among the top corners in the NFL while Douglas’ physicality and talent show up each and every week. Throwing at either of them is a losing endeavor, which is something that allows Buffalo to apply more focus to mitigating other issues on defense.

And that is the exact strategy the Bills will need to roll with against the Seahawks, who just so happen to throw the ball more than any team in the NFL. Geno Smith leads the league in passing yards with 1,985 and has 279 passing attempts, 45 more than any other player. He also attacks anywhere and everywhere meaning Buffalo won’t be able to key on one area of the field to slow him down. He does this by distributing the ball to an elite trio of wide receivers, a solid pass-catching tight end, and a pair of solid receiving backs. Those six players each have 20+ receptions, led by wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN). Metcalf seems unlikely to play on Sunday but Lockett and JSN’s ability to win over the middle could be a challenge for a Bills team that has struggled in that regard this season. That is further exacerbated by Noah Fant (TE), Kenneth Walker (RB), and Zach Charbonnet (RB), all of whom will challenge Buffalo’s linebackers and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson to make plays in the intermediate. As far as rough matchups go for the middle of Buffalo’s defense, this is amongst the roughest.

To mitigate this vulnerability, Buffalo is going to need to win in the trenches, and win in the trenches quickly. Smith has been sacked 20 times and pressured on 22.8% of his dropbacks this season, suggesting he is susceptible to the rush. The left side of their line, which features Charles Cross (LT), Laken Tomlinson (LG), and Connor Williams (C,) seems more impervious than the right side, where Buffalo is likely to attack. Anthony Bradford is a subpar right guard while Michael Jerrell is an inexperienced right tackle filling in for injured starter Stone Forsythe. We are going to find out very quickly this week just how good Jerrell is, or can be, as he is set to contend with Greg Rousseau, who is coming off a game where he had an astounding six quarterback hits. He, along with AJ Epenesa and Ed Oliver will attempt to be the primary players that force Smith into bad and game-changing decisions.

ADVANTAGE: Seahawks 👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Seahawks Rush Offense

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The Bills' run defense will be an issue until their interior defensive line can win on a more consistent basis. Starters Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones are struggling through the first half of the season while DeWayne Carter (who is set to miss several weeks with an injury) needs to continue to improve, and Austin Johnson needs to do a better job of filling space. Buffalo is more reliant on this than most other teams because of the size of their linebackers, which also appears to be an unknown this week. Dorian Williams popped up on the injury report, though is likely to play, while Terrel Bernard has been ruled out, meaning Baylon Spector is in line for some serious snaps. This is a concern against any NFL team, but against a team that can run it becomes even more dangerous…and the Seahawks can run.

The one-two punch of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet punishes opponents and is something Buffalo is going to need to find a way to slow down this weekend. Both Walker and Charbonnet play the role of bruiser and perfectly complement Seattle’s passing attack to the tune of 504 rushing yards. With a near-even touch share, the two combine for 4.2 yards per attempt and should have their way with a Bills' run defense that simply can’t slow down the run. To counter that, the Bills may be obligated to utilize an increased number of run blitzes. That means Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard/Baylon Spector playing much closer to the line of scrimmage which, in turn, will further expose the middle of the field for the Seahawks passing attack.

Seattle’s rushing attack is further propped up by their 34-year-old quarterback who still remains surprisingly mobile. On the season, Geno Smith has accounted for 161 rushing yards and 25 attempts while contributing 10 first downs and a rushing touchdown. He’s the exact type of quarterback who doesn’t want to take off but will if you give him the opportunity. For Bills' pass rushers, that means rushing Smith with gap integrity and assuring they aren’t simply flooded up field opening run lanes. This is something Buffalo at points has been susceptible to, and with their issues against the run, is something they can ill afford to let occur this week. Seattle has a massive, possibly game-changing, advantage here, Buffalo MUST mitigate it.

ADVANTAGE: Seahawks 👏👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Seahawks Special Teams

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The Bills' strategy with Tyler Bass is to only let him kick within 35 yards. On such kicks, he has just two misses this season, both extra points. That means more “go for it” situations for the Bills' offense as they desperately try to revamp the confidence of their otherwise talented kicker. Meanwhile, Sam Martin continues to quietly have a great season. A 40.0 net yard per punt and 42.9% inside the 20 is nothing to scoff at as Martin has been great for Buffalo (in good weather). Lastly for Buffalo is Brandon Codrington who continues to be impressive for the Bills. It’s not a matter of if, but when the rookie returns a kick and/or punt for a touchdown.

Kicker Jason Myers has been in the league for 10 seasons, the last six with the Seahawks, and in that time has been one of the league’s more consistent players in that role. This season isn’t much different as he has drilled 90.9% of his kicks with some slight struggles from deep. Joining him in Seattle’s kicking room is Michael Dickson who has one of the strongest legs in the NFL. This season he has an impressive 48.4 yards per punt and 40.9 net yards per punt. As for the return role, the Seahawks split duties having Dee Williams handle punts and Laviska Shenault primarily return kicks. To that end, Williams is averaging 9.2 yards per punt return while Shenault is at 32.7 yards per kick return including a touchdown. Both are dangerous and something Buffalo will need to be wary of.

ADVANTAGE: Seahawks 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The west coast trip, the injuries, the matchup, this game just feels weird for the Bills. On defense, how they are going to simultaneously stop the Seahawks' rushing attack and their intermediate passing game is a massive question mark, and one made even more concerning by the absence of Terrel Bernard. If Geno Smith has time he can slice and dice Buffalo’s defense and rely on players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett to pick up plenty of YAC. That, along with the rush, means points for Seattle, the question is just how far north of 20 can it get?

On the other side of the ball, injuries are a concern for the Seahawks, but their defensive line can make up for any issues in the second and third levels. Winning in the trenches means not only slowing down Buffalo’s rushing attack, but forcing Josh Allen off his spot and into some level of hero ball. At some point, Allen must throw an interception; if that happens to be this week, that alone could be the game-changing play that pushes Buffalo to 5-3.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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The addition of Amari Cooper seems to be the missing ingredient the Bills need to take their offense to the next level. Against a talented Jets defense (without Cooper) and a good Titans defense (with Cooper) Buffalo’s offense looked lethal. As Cooper becomes more engrained in the offense and Keon Coleman continues to mature, the sky for the Bills feels like the limit. The Seahawks are the test, but one that Buffalo’s offense has plenty of answers for.

On the other side of the ball, the answers are much more tenuous. This game seems like a real game script style of game where Buffalo must force Seattle into a single strategy, or their interior defensive line shows up. How Buffalo can win is by leaning into its corners to win short and relying on its safeties to protect deep. Smith isn’t exactly the most secure player with the ball, accounting for six turnovers this season. Can Buffalo get one? Much like the reason Buffalo could lose, forcing a turnover is one way in which it can win.

Prediction: Bills 31 – Seahawks 27

This game has all the makings of a shootout and one that will be decided by the team that is first to make a mistake. For that reason, we have to go Buffalo, who has avoided the stupid mistake for most of the season. While there are some very real questions about the Bills' defense, something feels right about their offense, and something feels right to a point where points are to be had. Buffalo may need 30-plus points to win this game, but with the way Josh Allen is playing and the ability to put the AFC East away coming up very quickly, this just feels like a game Buffalo will take.

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