Titans vs. Bills NFL Week 7 Preview: Finally Back Home

The Buffalo Bills return to Orchard Park to host the 1-4 Tennessee Titans in what has the makings of a blowout.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Oct 18, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s seventh edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 7 clash with the Tennessee Titans. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Titans Pass Defense

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Did Josh Allen succeed without a true No. 1 wide receiver? That will be the question that a lot of people ask after the happenings of the past week. It’s a fair question, and one we should attempt to discuss with some facts. Through six weeks, Allen ranks fifth in passer rating (106.8), third in EPA/Play (0.299), first in QBR (79.3), and first in QuBeR (72.78). Yes, he accomplished all of that without a true top receiver in an offense primarily built on the tenant of “Hey Josh, make something happen." Now it’s time for your opinion, did he succeed? Answer it as quickly as you can, because the Bills have a game on Sunday in which they will trot out someone named Amari Cooper, who just so happens to be a true No. 1 wideout.

On Sunday, that quarterback and that wide receiver (amongst others) will take on a Tennessee Titans team that features a sneakily good defense. Coming into this game, they rank 10th in Pass Defense DVOA (-1.2%) and first in Pass Yards Against per game (137.0). They lean on a really good secondary featuring a solid safety duo of Quandre Diggs and Amani Hooker as well as a corner trio of L’Jarius Sneed (out), Jarvis Brownlee (out), and Roger McCreary (slot). Four of five are in the good to great range, with Brownlee being the only real question mark calling into the efficiency that can be expected of Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel this week. That shifts the focus to Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, James Cook, and Ray Davis, all of whom have a plus matchup this week. Titans linebackers Kenneth Murray and Ernest Jones are each plus against the run but against the pass should struggle against Buffalo. Look for Allen to feed his plethora of weapons but to focus on the non-wideouts in a matchup they benefit from.

Where Buffalo has a further advantage in this matchup is against a Titans pass rush that hasn’t proven much this season. The Titans come into this game ranking 27th in sack rate (6.1%) and 27th in pressure rate (16.7%) as they have consistently struggled to get after opposing quarterbacks. They do have two studs in that regard though, in Harold Landry (DE) and Jeffery Simmons (DT). In the last two seasons that Landry has played, he has accounted for 10.0+ sacks as a player who can win off the edge in multiple ways. As for Simmons, he’s a two-time second-team All-Pro that has the physical abilities as well as the talent to play at an all-world level in the middle of the Titans defensive line. This will put pressure on Buffalo’s tackles as well as interior offensive line to win on doubles against Landry/Simmons while assuring their singles work on the rest of the Titans' defensive line. Whether or not they can accomplish that will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Titans Rush Defense

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Heading into the Jets game, the Bills had two real threats on the ground: Josh Allen, who was hampered by a left-hand injury that lowered his confidence in securing the ball, and James Cook, who had a toe injury that kept him out of the game. Enter fourth-round pick Ray Davis, and oh boy, did he enter the Bills' future plans. As the primary back against the Jets, Davis averaged 2.5 yards before contact and 2.4 yards after contact en route to 152 scrimmage yards on the night. Buffalo has found its thunder to the lightning that is Cook in a season where its revamped focus on physicality desperately needed a player like Davis. He will eat some of Cook’s snaps moving forward, it’s just a matter of how much.

And this week Buffalo may need to mix and match Cook and Davis until it finds the recipe that can be efficient against the NFL’s No. 6 rush defense by DVOA (-18.0%). They tend to win in the trenches, which extends the ability of their linebackers to be disruptive against the run, but there is concern that they can maintain that this week. The availability of the Titans' second-round pick, the 6-foot-4, 366-pound T’Vondre Sweat, is in jeopardy as he struggles with a mid-week knee injury. He has been a force against the run for the Titans who, without him, lack a true nose tackle to soak blocks for the rest of their defensive line. Yes, Jeffery Simmons will continue to win, but can a player like Sebastian Joseph-Day bring what Sweat can bring? Likely not. That makes this injury something worth monitoring and something that could be a key to how and why the Bills attack the Titans this weekend.

Sweat is all the more important because he keeps the Titans linebackers clean, both of whom have been doing work this season. Both Kenneth Murray and Ernest Jones have 39 tackles through five games, while Murray has four tackles for loss and Jones has three. Each are run-first defenders who excel playing near the line of scrimmage as sure tacklers that make it difficult for opposing runners to consistently pick up yards. That will make it tough sledding for both Cook and Davis this week if the Bills expect to attack the Titans head-on without any threat of an auxiliary rushing attack. The good news for the Bills is that Allen has been practicing all week without his left glove, suggesting his hand injury is healed which should increase his confidence as a rusher. Could Allen take off a bit more this week to extend drives and also expose lanes for his running backs? Yes, that’s very possible.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Titans Pass Offense

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The difference between certain NFL players is tangible, and in the case of the Bills, that was made obvious against the New York Jets in Week 6. We are specifically referring to the delta between Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis as well as Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop (at least the current version of Bishop). Both Johnson and Rapp made multiple plays against the Jets that their injury replacements were not capable of making prior to their returns, and without those two players, Buffalo likely would not have won that game. Johnson finished with a team-best eight tackles as well as the game-sealing interception while Rapp contributed three critical defended passes that ultimately accounted for the difference in the game. Both are all the more healthy this week, set to take on a Titans team that leaves a lot to be desired through the air.

If you were to ask Sean McDermott or Bobby Babich the type of quarterback they love to play against, they would describe Will Levis without saying his name -- essentially a quarterback with confidence in his athleticism to a fault whose knowledge of the game is lacking to a point where they consistently make silly mistakes. That's what Levis is, and that's one of the primary reasons the Titans are 1-4. Buffalo is going to lean into baiting Levis to make multiple boneheaded mistakes while attempting to throw to his plethora of weapons. Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, and running back Tony Pollard make for a foursome that should allow for a quarterback of even Mason Rudolph’s caliber to succeed (he happens to be the Titans' backup). In this game though, Buffalo has the likes of the aforementioned Johnson and Rapp as well as Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, who should negate the Titans’ receiving talent while McDermott and Babich scheme up a game that could make this matchup a catastrophe for the Titans.

It does get slightly better in the trenches for the Titans though, where they have some seriously up-and-coming players. Both JC Latham (LT) and Peter Skoronski (LG) were drafted in the first round in 2024 and 2023, respectively, as players with massive upside. They aren’t who Buffalo should look to stunt against this week, as that other side, which features Dillon Radunz (RG) and Nicholas Petit-Frere (RT), is significantly less talented and should allow Buffalo to generate a rush. Expect a big game from Greg Rousseau while the Bills send Dorian Williams and/or Terrel Bernard on the occasional blitz to disrupt the rhythm of the Titans' offensive line. Do that, and the scatterbrained Levis is more likely than not to make a game-changing mistake, something he has done multiple times this season.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Titans Rush Offense

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The Bills need to fix their run defense quickly, and it starts up front. Their defensive tackles are not consistently winning at the point of attack and their defensive ends are failing to maintain contain far too often. As a result, their linebackers are often covered up by offensive linemen who make it to the second level, or their corners are put on an island to make a tackle in open space. The eventual (and perhaps immediate) return of Ed Oliver should mitigate a lot of this, but more is still needed. Greg Rousseau has flashed A LOT this season, but more consistency is needed, while AJ Epenesa and DaQuan Jones need to live up to their new contracts. Whatever improves needs to begin this week, because the Titans' coaches are smart enough to realize that passing against the Bills is far more dangerous than running against them.

And this week the Titans will likely need to lean into a bell-cow back approach as opposed to committee distribution. With the dynamic Tyjae Spears likely sidelined with a hamstring injury, veteran back Tony Pollard is expected to handle the majority of the Titans rushing this week. To this point in the season, Pollard has accounted for 339 rushing yards with a 4.3 yards per attempt average as a more than adequate running back for Tennessee. His speed and agility should stress the Bills' linebackers and put them in positions where they need to make open-field tackles, something both Terrel Bernard and Dorian Willams have proven capable of. By no means is Pollard the greatest threat the Bills have faced on the ground this season, but he is a player Buffalo must be aware of this week.

There is an auxiliary component to the Titans' ground game, and it comes in the form of store-brand Josh Allen, Will Levis. He possesses a similar bravado to Allen when running, the only issue is he lacks the physical ability to finish runs in the same manner. Still, Buffalo will need to occasionally spy Levis, as the way in which the lesser team wins this game is by leaning on Levis on the ground. Levis has 16 rushes for 106 yards on the season as well as nine first downs. He does, however, have three lost fumbles, a number that Bills players will look to up Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. The Titans have the advantage in this matchup; that being said, Levis can advance that advantage, or flip it entirely.

ADVANTAGE: Titans 👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Titans Special Teams

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The Tyler Bass issue has reached a breaking point that has led Buffalo to bring in another kicker, Lucas Havrisik. Neither have stats worth writing home about as of late, but it is worth monitoring if Buffalo calls up Havrisik, as doing so would spell the end of Bass. As for Buffalo’s other leg, Sam Martin has been phenomenal, maintaining an impressive 41.7 net yards per punt as Buffalo’s reliable field flipper. Lastly, Brandon Codrington is a ticking time bomb, in a good way, as a player who you could bet will return at least one punt and/or kick for a touchdown this season.

The Titans' kicking situation is the polar opposite of the Bills, with their kicker dominating and punter struggling. On the season Nick Folk has made 100% of his kicks, drilling all eight field goals, including three from 50-plus, as well as 10 extra points. At punter though, Ryan Stonehouse has been leveraging his cannon of a leg, but it has resulted in a gross-to-net punt delta of 14.2, suggesting he is highly susceptible to big returns. Last for the Titans is return man Jha’Quan Jackson, who has handled both kicks and punts to the tune of 26.8 and 8.8 yards per return, respectively. He is a proven college returner who has more than enough juice in the pros to make a name for himself in the role.

ADVANTAGE: Titans 👏👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The Titans' defense is quite good and underappreciated. They are going to test what could be a cocky Bills offense and put into jeopardy Josh Allen’s interception streak. They need to force a turnover or two, but they have that ability through the air while both Landry and Simmons could theoretically have a game-changing sack at any point this game. Yes, they are overmatched on that side of the ball, but there exists a real path for them to have a solid defensive outing.

On offense, the Titans are going to lean on Tony Pollard to win this game. Buffalo has really struggled to stop the run, and if the Titans can establish the ground game, any advantage the Bills may have could be mitigated. If Pollard pushes that 100-yard total it could spell disaster for the Bills. To that extent, Will Levis does have the talent necessary to be good, he just needs to not be stupid. Is this the week he isn’t a goofball? If so, this offense could be a problem.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Of the seven teams the Bills will have played this season, the Titans are the most inferior. Josh Allen seemed to have found something on offense against a talented Jets team and now has Amari Cooper to take some heat off him. That spells another big game for the Bills, who have a chance to leave this week nearly three games ahead of all AFC East teams. They know that, even if they won’t admit it, and whether that means them winning through the air or on the ground, they surely have a plan to do so.

On the other side of the ball, you won’t find many mismatches bigger than Will Levis versus Sean McDermott. McDermott’s defense is very confusing and hard to read and tends to goad less intellectual quarterbacks into dumb decisions. “Less Intellectual," “Dumb," yeah, you get where this is going. The Bills are set to make Levis struggle and with the expected performance from Buffalo’s offense, the Titans will need to throw the ball, something they can’t do (especially in Buffalo).

Prediction: Bills 38 – Titans 10

This game has all the makings of a blowout. Buffalo is more than aware of its situation in the AFC East and AFC and realizes that beating an inferior opponent will go a long way in achieving its aspirations this season. Josh Allen is in line for another three-plus touchdown game and a performance reminiscent of the one Buffalo had against the Jaguars. On the other side of the ball, the Bills' defense is likely to force multiple turnovers, maybe even a pick-six or scoop-and-score, as this is the perfect matchup for Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich. No game is a guarantee, but if Buffalo doesn’t leave this one at 5-2, it will be a shocker.

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