Rams vs. Bills NFL Week 14 Preview: The Wagons Head Cross Country

The Buffalo Bills head to the west coast to take on a feisty Los Angeles Rams team in desperate need of a win.

Sep 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) carries the ball against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Bills defeated the Rams 31-10. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills matchup with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season.

This series will look at five key matchups;

• Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense
• Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense
• Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense
• Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams

This entire analysis will conclude with three sections:

• Why Buffalo Will Lose
• Why Buffalo Will Win
• score prediction for the game

Below I present 2024’s 13th edition of this analysis for the Bills Week 14 clash with the Los Angeles Rams. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Rams Pass Defense

It seems as though anytime Josh Allen steps onto a football field he does something that has never been done before. In Buffalo’s most recent game he became the first quarterback in NFL history to have a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in a single game. Next up on Allen’s “first ever” quest will be to become the first quarterback in NFL history to score 250+ touchdowns in his first seven seasons. To achieve that Allen will need 2 touchdowns on Sunday against the Rams in a matchup with much greater implications than simply being a placeholder for another record setting night by Josh Allen. For the Rams, it’s an opportunity to stay in striking distance of the NFC West title and for the Bills it’s a chance to stay on the heels of the Kansas City Chiefs in their quest to steal the #1 seed in the AFC.

Bills Josh Allen, not finding an open receiver, runs with the ball with a gain of a few yards during first half action of their home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Both the Bills and Rams path to winning this game could rely heavily on how well Buffalo is able to execute the pass and how well the Rams are able to defend it. Coming into this game the Rams rank 22nd in Pass Defense DVOA (+13.2%) as their secondary has struggled to mitigate mismatches across the board. They have a nice safety duo in Kam Curl and Quentin Lake but each of them performs better closer to the line of scrimmage than they do deep. Further, Lake often rotates into the slot where his limitations athletically leave him vulnerable when defending speedier slot receivers, similar to a player like Khalil Shakir. On the outside things get even more dire as the Rams have struggled to produce adequate corner play and are currently starting Cobie Durant and Darious Williams. In fact, their desperation to improve this position led them to claim Emmanuel Forbes off waivers. The struggling 2023 16th overall pick is clearly someone the Rams intend to play, but with little time in their system it would be a surprise to see him take the field in any significant way on Sunday. In totality this is a matchup the Bills should be heavily favored in both on the outside and inside throwing to WRs, TEs, RBs, or even QBs, Josh Allen will have plenty of options on Sunday.

Where the Rams can help to minimize this advantage is in the trenches where their youth movement is paying dividends. Byron Young (DE), Braden Fiske (DT), Kobie Turner (DT), and Jared Verse (DE) have all been drafted in the past two seasons and all of them have 4.5+ sacks this season. It’s not surprising either that these four youngsters all lead the Rams in defensive line snaps as their ability to pressure quarterbacks up the gut and off the edges generates issues for opposing offenses. That means that the entirety of the Bills offensive line will need to bring their A-game as well as Josh Allen specifically in the sack avoidance department. On the season Allen has been sacked just 13 times, or on 3.52% of his drop backs, as he and his offensive line have made it nearly impossible to bring Allen to the ground. Still, keep a close eye on the trenches this week with specific attention being paid to Rams #8, Jared Verse, who may have just 4.5 sacks on the season but has exuded talent since the second he entered the NFL.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills James Cook avoids the attempted tackle by 49ers Dee Winters during first half action of their home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bills Rush Offense vs. Rams Rush Defense

For the past few years something has been lacking from the Bills offense, specifically the run game. It seems that that something is resolved in 2024 with Sunday’s snow game against the 49ers being a perfect indicator. In season’s past it felt as though severe weather worked as a disadvantage for the Bills and an advantage for their opponents. Against the 49ers though, Buffalo ran wild producing 220 yards on the ground split heavily between James Cook (107), Ray Davis (63), and Ty Johnson (28). Each of Buffalo’s running backs brought their own unique style to this game as they ran through, around, and over 49ers defenders. The implication is that this iteration of the Buffalo Bills is weatherproof, which should pay dividends in January but won’t particularly matter much on Sunday in Los Angeles.

The Bills still should run and run some more against the Rams as their run defense is equally as porous as their pass defense. On the season Los Angeles has given up 4.6 yards per attempt, good for 21st in the NFL, while ranking 21st in rush defense DVOA (-4.6%). Their talent deficiencies in the back-seven extend from their defensive backs to their linebackers where Christian Rozeboom and Omar Speights are solid albeit uninspiring players. Prior to 2023 Rozeboom was specifically a special team’s player but due to roster turnover in LA has been forced into duty for the Rams. As for Speights he found his way onto the Rams roster this season as an undrafted free agent and began seeing significant playing time in Week #7. The deficiencies up in the middle of the field all but require LA to play Kam Curl and Quentin Lake down from safety and into the box to assure they aren’t consistently gashed by opponents. That could be a losing strategy against a Buffalo offense that can beat you deep, setting up the ultimate pick your poison for the Rams on Sunday.

Things could get even more arduous for the Rams on Sunday based on how often Josh Allen decides to use his legs. While the Rams pressuring Allen is paramount it could be a double-edged sword if Buffalo’s quarterback decides to take off on Sunday. On the season Allen’s rushing EPA is 39.57 which ranks 2nd amongst ALL players behind only Jalen Hurts (42.36). With Allen healthier now than he has been all season, Buffalo has yet another path they can utilize to beat their opponents. This should only further stress the Rams Safeties and Linebackers while forcing their defensive linemen to assure they rush the passer with integrity. Los Angeles can ill-afford to lose this matchup which happens to be one they are at a significant disadvantage in.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Bills Pass Defense vs. Rams Pass Offense

It’s very rare that an NFL team loses three long time starting defensive backs and remains a top-10 pass defense. The Bills are an exception to that rule as the losses of Jordan Poyer, Tre White, and Micah Hyde (who has since returned) have forced the Bills to reinvent their defense to remain one of the premier units in the NFL. That they did as they come into this game ranked 9th in Pass Defense DVOA (-2.6%) while getting excellent play from all five defensive back positions. At corner, Taron Johnson is playing like the best Nickel in football while Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have been nothing short of dominant on the outside. At safety, Taylor Rapp has been one of the unsung heroes of the Bills this season contributing game changing plays on a weekly basis while Damar Hamlin has shocked many as a quality player for the Buffalo Bills. This fivesome is built to slow down potent pass offenses, which happens to be something they will deal with in their upcoming game.

The Rams statistically aren’t dominant via the pass this season, but those stats should be taken with two grains of salt. Those two grains are represented by Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua who have missed a combined 9 games this season leaving quarterback Matthew Stafford with few options to throw to. Now both are back and healthy and playing up to their standards as one of the best pass catching duos in the NFL. Now 31, Kupp still brings with him elite route running acumen and an agility that makes him difficult to cover in tight spaces. As for Nacua, he is a perfect complement to Kupp as a physical "at-all-costs” style player that can manhandle most defensive backs in the NFL. Sprinkle in players like Tutu Atwell (WR) and Demarcus Robinson (WR) or Kyren Williams (RB) and Colby Parkinson (TE), and Matt Stafford should find some success through the air this week. A solid test for the Bills secondary and one that will speak volumes of what we should expect from them for the remainder of the year.

That secondary can be helped this week however, as Buffalo’s pass rush has a fairly significant advantage in the trenches. On the season Matthew Stafford has been pressured on 23.3% of drop backs and sacked 28 times. Injuries and talent have been an issue in this context as the Rams offensive line has been inconsistent through their struggles this season. On Sunday that offensive line will consist of Alaric Jackson (LT), Steve Avila (LG), Beaux Limmer (C), Kevin Dotson (RG), and Rob Havenstein (RT). Look for Buffalo to specifically attack Limmer, a 2024 6th round pick, who has struggled at points this season. Obviously, that means Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones in attack mode but don’t be surprised if you see an uptick in blitzes from players like Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano for the Bills.

ADVANTAGE: Rams 👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Rams Rush Offense

The Bills run defense at time struggled to slow down Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on Sunday, but the on-paper struggles were much less severe than the actually of the situation. As a team they also finished with 5 tackles for a loss as they stalled drives or forced “and long” situations via the great equalizer of negative plays. This isn’t something new for the Bills either as they rank 7th in the NFL with 69 tackles for a loss on the season. The run defense for the Buffalo Bills may rarely be pretty but when they need it most it has stepped up more often this season than not.

The Rams are going to stress the Bills bend but don’t break mentality this week by leveraging one of the league’s few remaining bell-cow backs, Kyren Williams. Williams enters Sunday’s contest just 74 yards short of 1000 on the season. A small but stout back in stature at 5’9” 202lb, Williams has the ability to run with some vigor but excels at finding space where most others do not. This helped him lead the NFL in rushing yards per game last season at 95.3 and makes him a massive threat to the Bills on Sunday. The trenches become even more important because of him as Buffalo will need to consistently win there to keep their linebackers clean if they want to contain Williams. And those linebackers are good for the Bills as Terrel Bernard is playing at an exceptional level while recently returned Matt Milano can be expected to get better and better each week.

Nov 24, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Outside of Kyren Williams there aren’t many other contributors on the ground for the Rams. They will occasionally hand the ball off to Blake Corum, a north-south runner, but only do so about 3 times per game. They also have shown interest in handing the ball off to wide receivers with Puka Nacua, Xavier Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Tutu Atwell all having 2+ rushes on the season. At quarterback though, Stafford has become a statue at this point of his career. He rarely takes off and when he does lack the speed to pick up any significant yardage. All in all, this entire matchup is about Kyren Williams and Kyren Williams alone, Buffalo need only worry about slowing him down, which if they do could result in an easy win for Buffalo.

ADVANTAGE: Rams 👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Rams Special Teams

Tyler Bass continues to be inconsistent missing a kick in his 7th game this season. Despite that there is some level of confidence in him as he has been hitting high leverage kicks as of late. That lack of confidence does not exist for Sam Martin who has drilled 19 punts inside the 20 to only 4 punts that have been touchbacks. And that confidence grows even larger when the ball is in Brandon Codrington’s hands as a return man. On the season Condrington ranks Top-4 in both Punt (11.9) and Kick (28.9) while being robbed of a touchdown on a poor holding call against the 49ers. Condrington represents yet another game changing threat for the Bills and each week Buffalo opponents are becoming more and more aware of him.

For the Rams kicking has been an equal or even greater adventure as Joshua Karty has struggled this season. Despite playing the majority of games indoors Karty has an abysmal 76.2% field goal rate as he has missed 5 field goals, only one of which coming from 50+. He is not to be trusted when lining up to kick, something that could result in points coming off the board which Los Angeles cannot afford. Punting has been much better though as the Rams 250lb second year punter, Ethan Evans has an acceptable 40.2 net yards per punt with a great 20 punts inside the 20 to just 1 touchback. Lastly, return has been a bit of an adventure with a few different players handling duties. Most recently that included Jordan Whittington on kick returns and Xavier Smith on punt returns. On the season Whittington is averaging 28.2 yards per kick return while Xavier Smith is at 8.6 yards per punt return meaning Buffalo coverage teams must at least be aware of them.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Dec 1, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott speaks with Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (91) / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Why Buffalo Will Lose

Coming off the high of clinching their 5th consecutive division title and with the Detroit Lions looming next week this game is the perfect representation of a trap game for the Bills. Buffalo is clearly the better team in this matchup but if they don’t come to play with their emotions in check this is one the Rams have the talent to steal. On defense it all comes down to turnovers, it always does, as Los Angeles is going to look to steal one in the air or get after the ball in Josh Allen’s hands. If there is one player that has that game-changing ability it is Jared Verse who has been oh so close all season making it just a matter of time until he makes a big play.

On offense for the Rams the trio of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams should terrify anyone, especially the Bills. Buffalo has been susceptible against the run and in the short passing game all season which Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense could take advantage of. If Buffalo can’t slow down Kyren that’s one path to winning with another being Cooper and Puka going off. It’s an odd matchup for the Bills and one that doesn’t feel quite right thus points could be had by Los Angeles if the Bills aren’t careful.

Bills fans in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why Buffalo Will Win

The Bills are a wagon right now and that wagon is headed to Los Angeles to take on a Rams team that has struggled for much of the season. Buffalo’s offense has proven capable of beating you in multiple ways while the Rams defense has proven capable of losing games in multiple ways. Assuming Buffalo protects the ball, this isn’t just a game the Bills should put up a few points in, it’s a game where they should extend their 30+ point streak to seven games.

On the defensive side of the ball things are a bit rougher but Buffalo does have some advantages. The most glaring of which is in the trenches where Buffalo’s defensive line should easily handle the Rams defensive line. Do that and it won’t just make life hard on Matthew Stafford but also Kyren Williams who can get got if you get to him in the backfield. A dominant performance by the Bills defense won’t be needed on Sunday, but it’s one that could pop up.

Prediction: Bills 35 – Rams 21

The Bills are on a roll and vibes are at an all-time high. Of course, they could lose this game but there is little reason to expect the good times to slow in Los Angeles. Josh Allen leaves this game with another MVP level statement and the Bills improve to 11-2 as they try to chase down the Chiefs for the #1 seed. Handle business here and handle business next week against a scary Lions team and the Bills path to 15-2 is clear with their chance at a playoff bye being obvious.

—  Enjoy free coverage of the Bills from Buffalo Bills on SI  —

More Buffalo Bills News:

• Sean McVay indirectly endorses triple threat Josh Allen's NFL MVP candidacy

• Ed Oliver living the good life in Buffalo's snowy Southtowns

• Former captain's wife reveals what differentiates Bills from other NFL teams

• New movement atop Week 14 AFC analytical power rankings as Bills reign

• Chris Simms on why these Bills are 'different' and Chiefs should be worried