2024 AFC Playoff Race: How the conference stacks up entering NFL Week 9

We're roughly halfway through the 2024 NFL season, so let's take a look at the current state of the AFC playoff race.

Ronnie Eastham | Oct 31, 2024

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Regardless of what fans, pundits, and general outside noise would suggest, each NFL organization enters a fresh season thinking they have what it takes to accomplish something special. Every team, at the start of a new year, believes they're capable of not only qualifying for the postseason, but making some noise when they get there; that is especially true this year, as through eight weeks, there are a few surprising clubs positioned promisingly in the AFC playoff picture.

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated, but they haven't been dominant in any way in those seven victories. Winning is ultimately what counts, and they have been outperforming everyone else in that regard. Then there's the Buffalo Bills, who have won four games by 21 or more points, most of any team. Following the initial two, there seems to be a slight decline; however, once the postseason starts, anything is possible, and many of the most memorable moments in league history have occurred during the playoffs. It's what everyone, fans included, dreams about.

With that, here's a look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 9.

2024 NFL Playoffs: In the Hunt

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

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The Chiefs just traded for multi-time Pro Bowl wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins before adding New England Patriots edge rusher Josh Uche. They are gearing up for a run at a third consecutive Super Bowl, and we all know they have the postseason experience to lean on along the way. This team will be in the playoffs, but will they ultimately earn the No. 1 seed? And is there a team capable of stopping them once the playoffs commence?

2. Houston Texans (6-2)

The Texans will have to move forward without wide receiver Stefon Diggs after the veteran suffered a Week 8 ACL tear, but luckily, Houston's weapons corps is robust enough -- and its division is weak enough -- that it will still likely cruise to an AFC South title. The question will be where among the division winners they will stand.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

The Steelers, despite boasting a winning record, made a quarterback switch a few years ago, naming Russell Wilson the starter over Justin Fields, who started the first six games. The Steelers are 2-0 since, and Wilson seems to have given a boost to the offense. Can they keep the Ravens in their rearview mirror?

4. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

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The Bills have a chance to sweep the Dolphins this weekend, and doing so would all but lock up the AFC East title. Like the Texans, it's all about where they ultimately rank among the division winners, but unfortunately, they already have losses against the Ravens and Texans. The team could receive a late-season boost in the form of former All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, and veteran pass-rusher Von Miller returns from suspension this week.

5. Denver Broncos (5-3)

Denver is perhaps the biggest surprise of the season in terms of record, and it's primarily on the back of its defense. The only teams that could realistically challenge the Broncos for a Wild Card spot are the Chargers, Bengals, and whoever doesn't win the AFC North between the Ravens and Steelers.

6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)

The Ravens looked like a sure-fire Super Bowl team, then lost to the Browns last week. Their defense has been an issue all year, and it caught up to them in Cleveland. The offense is great, but when they make mistakes, the defense isn't able to pick up the slack.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

The Chargers' defense has been uncharacteristically terrific on paper. They are the only team in the NFL that has not allowed more than 100 points yet. Justin Herbert may not be ranked among the elite, but he is one of the league's better quarterbacks.

2024 NFL Playoffs: On the Outside

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Outside of the now Joe Flacco-led Indianapolis Colts and always-dangerous Cincinnati Bengals, it's hard to imagine any team currently on the outside making the playoffs. According to nfl.com, the only team after the Bengals with a better than 10% chance right now is the Jets, at 21%; however, if they lose to the Texans in Week 9, that drops all the way to 11%.

Flacco taking the reins in Indianapolis roughly coincides with running back Jonathan Taylor's return to the lineup, bolstering the Colts' playoff odds. A chance at a division title is all but lost, having already been swept by the Texans. The Bengals might be in trouble, having to contend with both the Steelers and Ravens and already with five losses this season. The rest of the teams also have five or six losses already and are in deep trouble of being all but eliminated from the playoffs in 2024.

Here's how the rest of the conference stacks up at this time: