AFC Power Rankings: Where do Bills stack up entering NFL Week 3?

We've tried our hand at ranking all 16 teams in the AFC East entering the third week of the 2024 NFL season.

Ronnie Eastham | Sep 17, 2024

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The AFC is sporting five teams that remain undefeated through two weeks of the new NFL season, and two of them might come as a shock. The Pittsburgh Steelers sit atop the AFC North, where the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, who were initially thought of as division contenders, have yet to win a game. The other surprise is the Los Angeles Chargers, who are keeping pace with the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the AFC West. The other undefeated teams are the Chiefs, Houston Texans, and the Buffalo Bills.

Seeing Buffalo atop its division isn't too much of a surprise, but through two games, the Bills have looked as good as any team in the league. This is a testament to both Josh Allen and their head coach Sean McDermott (more on that later, though). With all of this in mind, we've tried our hand at ranking all 16 AFC teams entering NFL Week 3.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took ten different metrics ranging from DVOA rankings to EPA per play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values to come up with one singular value for each team.

Week 3 AFC Power Rankings

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16. Denver Broncos (0-2)

The silver lining for the Broncos is they aren't as bad as the New York Giants or Carolina Panthers, but they are still bad... really bad. The best ranking among the metrics used was their defensive success rate, ranking 21st in the league. In all other metrics, they ranked 26th or worse.

15. Tennessee Titans (0-2)

The one saving grace for the Titans is their defense. Tennessee ranks eighth and 11th in defensive EPA and defensive success rate, respectively. Tony Pollard is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and, as a team, the Titans are averaging 5.0 yards a carry. If the Titans can learn to take care of the ball (30th in turnover differential) they just might win a few games and improve their offensive numbers.

14. Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns are a very bad offensive team, and I don't think we have to look much further than the quarterback position to see where the biggest issue lies. They don't rank higher than 25th in any of the offensive categories and their special teams DVOA is terrible, as well, ranking 25th. Similar to the Titans, if they can start getting better play from Deshaun Watson, this team could quickly turn things around. At this point, that seems like a big if.

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13. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

The Colts have a talented roster with players like Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, but Anthony Richardson is still learning. He's not a rookie but didn't get much playing or even practice time last season due to his injury, so he's still a work in progress. Despite that, it's not the offense that's been the issue in Indy. Its defense ranks no better than 27th in defensive EPA, defensive success rate, and defensive DVOA.

12. Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Tua Tagovailoa's recent concussion is undoubtedly unfortunate. Still, even with Tagovailoa, Miami's numbers weren't particularly great, especially in terms of DVOA, ranking no better than 26th and 29th in offensive and defensive DVOA, respectively. Getting blown out by 21 in Week 2 significantly impacts these numbers, but with Tagovailoa out, I don't expect the numbers to improve much.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (1-1)

The Raiders came away with a great win against the Baltimore Ravens last week, but getting beat by the Chargers by 12 in the season opener brings their numbers down. The Raiders are playing solid defense this year though, ranking sixth in defensive success rate and 12th in defensive EPA. In addition, they currently are fifth in turnover differential.

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10. Jacksonville Jaguars (0 -2)

This is what I like about utilizing advanced analytics and stats to rank teams: it gives a better perspective of how the team is performing. Jacksonville is a bit of an anomaly, ranking in the top ten in the league in offensive DVOA, but its offensive EPA and success rate are ranked 20th and 19th respectively. This should even out as more games are in the books. The Jaguars are a solid football team and are generally well-coached. I have little doubt that they will be in the thick of things this season, despite the 0-2 start.

9. New York Jets (1-1)

Everyone was laughing at the Jets and their lackluster Week 1 performance against the San Francisco 49ers, but the numbers haven't been bad. They are top 20 in most categories, including 15th in offensive success rate. They are 11th in special teams DVOA, too. The big question with the Jets is what happened to their defense. They were expected to be one of the better units in the NFL but the analytics say differently through the first two weeks of the season.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

Here is another team that ranks somewhat high despite not winning a game so far this season. But this should give Bengals fans hope that they can get things going in the win column very soon. Defensively, the Bengals ranked respectfully but the offense has been an issue. They rank 23rd in EPA, 18th in success rate, and 20th in DVOA. The Bengals are another team I fully expect to get rolling. Perhaps the absence of Ja'Marr Chase throughout the preseason is hindering this offense. Not having Tee Higgins isn't helping, either.

7. Baltimore Ravens (0-2)

The Ravens are the highest-ranked among the 0-2 teams in the AFC. Their offensive success rate ranks third in the NFL and offensive DVOA is fourth. Surprisingly, the issue here is the defense, this after last season when the Ravens were one of the league's best.

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6. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

I know this isn't going to sit well with Chiefs fans, especially considering there is a 1-1 team ranked ahead of them, but the analytics are what they are. The problem is their defense where they rank 30th in defensive success rate and 22nd in defensive DVOA. Their 24th rank in turnover differential is a big problem, too.

5. New England Patriots (1-1)

This one surprised me a lot. The AFC currently has five undefeated teams and while it isn't surprising having one of them not in the top five, I would not have expected the Patriots to be here. This team is better than expected, ranking 17th or better in every metric, other than defensive DVOA, where they rank 21st. They are also top five in turnover differential.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)

The Steelers have been terrific on the defensive side of the ball, ranking third in EPA and sixth in DVOA. They are also tops in the league in turnover differential. Their offense could be their undoing this season though, where they rank 24th in both EPA and success rate. They are 21st in offensive DVOA, too.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (2-0)

Measuring teams based on analytics will often give you different perspectives. I don't think too many people outside of Chargers fans would say Los Angeles is one of the top three teams in the conference, but here we are. What stands out for the Chargers is their defense. They rank in the top five in EPA, success rate, and are No. 1 in DVOA.

2. Houston Texans (2-0)

The Texans rank in the top ten in six of the categories utilized for this team ranking, and they are for real. Houston's defense might be a problem, ranking 19th in EPA and 20th in success rate. The Texans have a lot of weapons on offense and C.J. Stroud wasn't a flash-in-the-pan rookie. Expect the Texans to be in the race for the AFC's top seed come playoff time.

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1. Buffalo Bills (2-0)

Well, here we are. We reached the No. 1 team in the AFC. I know there will be fans questioning this, and that is what team rankings are about. The Bills ranked top ten in seven categories and top five in five of those. The Bills are No. 1 in offensive success rate and No. 2 in offensive EPA and DVOA.

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