AFC Analytical Power Rankings: One division showing strong entering Week 10

We're into the second half of the NFL season, and the AFC has only seven teams with winning records.

Ronnie Eastham | Nov 6, 2024

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Many fans believed that the 2024 NFL campaign would be a reset or rebuild year for the Buffalo Bills, as several key players of seasons past were let go. The media was ready to crown the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets as the division champs and even Super Bowl-bound during the offseason. Nine weeks into the season, we have a very different reality. The Bills are running away with the division, and meanwhile, the Dolphins and Jets have a combined five wins.

We're also starting to see a gap between the two conferences. The AFC has only seven teams with a record at .500 or better, while the NFC has ten such teams. The NFC looks to be the better conference this year, and they might have the best team in the NFL team in the Detroit Lions. According to our analytical rankings, when including all 32 teams, the Lions are No. 1 by a wide margin. But this ranking isn't about the NFL, so let's get into the AFC poll.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

Offensive DVOA

Defensive DVOA

Offensive EPA

Defensive EPA

Offensive Success Rate

Defensive Success Rate

Turnover Differential Average

Points Differential Average

Win/Loss Record

16. New England Patriots (2-7)

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The Patriots had a chance to win a game, but they allowed the Titans to get their second win of the season. Still, rookie quarterback Drake Maye has played well, and it looks like New England might have its signal-caller of the future. Outside of Maye, however, they don't have much more going for them. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA.

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

The Raiders rank in the 30s in four of nine categories, including dead last in turnover differential average. They continue stacking losses, dropping their seventh of the year against the Bengals. As the trade deadline passed, the Raiders were not sellers, which is surprising, but we may never know if they seriously entertained the idea of trading Maxx Crosby. Regardless, this team will be in the hunt for the top pick in next year's draft.

14. Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Rumors swirled around the possible trading of Myles Garrett, but when all was said and done, he remained in Cleveland. The Browns' defense has been average to good, ranking as high as tenth in defensive success rate. However, the offense is terrible, ranking 32nd in both offensive success rate and DVOA. Cleveland lost its seventh of the year in Week 9, falling to the Los Angeles Chargers.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)

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You have to imagine the Jaguars will focus all offseason efforts on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 32nd in EPA per play and 31st in DVOA. Jacksonville lost another one last week, this time dropping one to the Eagles. Last year, the Jaguars started the season 6-2 but struggled in the second half, finishing 9-8. This season, they have started poorly, and it doesn't look like they will get it turned around any time soon.

12. Miami Dolphins (2-6)

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins were a division favorite entering the season but have floundered mightily. Even with Tua Tagovailoa back behind center, the Dolphins still haven't been able to get out of the loss column. Tagovailoa has played very well since returning but the results remain the same. Miami ranks 26th in offensive DVOA and 28th in defensive DVOA. The offensive numbers should start to climb with their starting quarterback back, but it's too little, too late.

11. Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Titans finally picked up their second win this season, defeating the Patriots, 20-17 in Week 9. Their defense is ranked very well, sitting at No. 2 in defensive success rate, 11th in EPA, and ninth in DVOA. The offense is terrible, and the team is struggling in the turnover department, ranking 31st in turnover differential average.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)

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The Bengals started the year 1-4, but have won three of their last four. They are fighting to get back into the playoff race, but it is still an uphill battle. The defense remains an issue and if Cincinnati is going to make a run in the second half, it'll have to be on the strength of its offense. The defense ranks 27th in EPA, 30th in success rate, and 25th in DVOA.

9. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Colts made a change at quarterback, starting Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson; however, they were only able to score 13 points in a loss to the Vikings. Indianapolis has a very good defensive line, and it's helped them rank 12th in defensive EPA and 13th in success rate. However, they rank only 20th in DVOA, and the offensive DVOA ranks 19th. The Colts are good enough to annoy the true contenders, but they aren't going to do much more than that in 2024.

8. New York Jets (3-6)

Are the Jets on their way back? It's not likely, but they picked up their third win of the year and we've seen this movie before. They play well and win a game, then flop the next week and look abysmal. The analytics show that inconsistency as well, ranking middle of the pack in nearly every category.

7. Houston Texans (6-3)

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The Texans desperately need their star receiver back on the field. No, I'm not referring to Stefon Diggs, but rather Nico Collins. Collins has ascended to the top of the NFL in terms of receivers, and C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense have struggled without him. They rank 20th in EPA, 23rd in DVOA, and 25th in success rate. On the flip side, their defense ranks first in success rate.

6. Denver Broncos (5-4)

The Broncos are one of three AFC West teams ranked in the top six of our rankings. Bo Nix has played better as of late, but the offense is still bringing up the rear. Denver's defense has been stellar, ranking first in EPA, third in success rate, and seventh in DVOA. If Nix can continue to develop as the season progresses and the offense keeps improving, the Broncos could be an annoying playoff team.

5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

One week the Ravens are losing to the Jameis Winston-led Browns, the next week they blowout the Broncos, who we were just praising, 41-10. But this is also why the Ravens are currently the fifth seed in the AFC with three losses. When this team is on, they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but their inconsistency has been an issue for years now, especially in the playoffs. That said, the Ravens offense ranks second in both EPA and success rate, and first in DVOA.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

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Who would have thought the Chargers would be 5-3 after letting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen leave Los Angeles? The Chargers are currently in second place in the division, but already have a loss to the Chiefs. They'll get another opportunity the first week of December, but in the meantime, they are looking up at the Chiefs. Similar to the Broncos, the Chargers' defense is carrying them, ranking second in EPA, fourth in success rate, and sixth in DVOA.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)

The Chiefs remain undefeated, but they still haven't gotten the top spot in our rankings, in fact, falling one spot this week. It took overtime for them to beat the Bucs, who were without star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It's games like this keeping the Chiefs out of the top spot despite the wins. They are top ten in most categories, but only 19th in defensive success rate, and 25th in turnover differential average.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

The Steelers' move to Russell Wilson came with questions from those outside of the Steelers organization; however, they haven't lost a game with Wilson yet, and they've climbed up the rankings, taking the number two spot. The offense ranks 13th in EPA, 19th in success rate, and 20th in DVOA. The defense is already stellar, and if the offense, now with receiver Mike Williams, continues their upward trajectory, the Steelers could make some noise in the playoffs.

1. Buffalo Bills (7-2)

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This is seven consecutive weeks that the Bills have occupied the top spot. Since we started doing these rankings, they have been the No. 1 AFC team. However, there are some significant concerns on the defensive side, particularly with the run defense, and this is beginning to show in the team's DVOA, where they rank 12th. They are still top ten in all other categories, including third in offensive EPA, third in turnover differential, and fourth in offensive DVOA.

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