AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Movement in the Top 5 entering NFL Week 4

We've used several sources of analytical data to rank all 16 teams in the AFC entering Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.

Ronnie Eastham | 1 Hour Ago

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The Buffalo Bills sat atop the AFC in our first edition of the 2024 AFC analytical power rankings. After annihilating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, we'd expect the Bills to remain at the top. However, the conference still has three remaining unbeaten teams, and it's always possible another team could leap to number one due to various analytical factors. Also, what about the Kansas City Chiefs? In last week's rankings, they were the only team without a loss that wasn't ranked in the top five. Did that change this week?

The Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers were the most recent undefeated teams to fall in Week 3. How did their losses affect their former ranking? Do we have a new top-five in the AFC as we head into Week 4? Lastly, regardless of whether you put much stock into these analytical rankings or not, the results are interesting. These paint a very different picture and help tell the story of how well a team is playing, despite what their win/loss record might be. Let's find out how things played out this week. Here are your Week 4 AFC analytical power rankings.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took ten metrics ranging from DVOA rankings to EPA per play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values to create one singular value for each team.

16. Miami Dolphins (1-2)

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The Miami Dolphins were a popular offseason pick to take the AFC East from the Bills this year; however, the exact opposite is taking place. Miami comes in dead last in this week's poll, and rightfully so. The Dolphins are not playing well, and after falling 24-3 to the Seattle Seahawks, the future is not bright; Miami's bread and butter is supposed to be its offense, but it ranks 25th and 21st in offensive EPA per play and success rate, respectively. It also ranks 30th in point differential per game, so the Dolphins aren't just losing, they are losing badly.

15. Tennessee Titans (0-3)

The Titans looked awful against the Green Bay Packers, but Green Bay will do that to you. Regardless, the Titans are not good and the quarterback they drafted in the third round just a few years ago, Malik Willis, made them pay. Tennessee picked up another loss in embarrassing fashion, losing to Willis and the Pack, 30-14. There isn't anything special about their offense, but they are playing decent defense, ranking ninth and twelfth in defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate. However, being dead last in turnover differential will cost you.

14. Cleveland Browns (1-2)

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The AFC has been considered the stronger conference for the last few seasons, but ten of its teams currently carry a losing record. It's early, but some of these teams were supposed to be good. The Browns fall into that category, and it doesn't appear much will change this season unless Deshaun Watson suddenly remembers how to play quarterback. That doesn't appear likely at this point.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)

The Jaguars should consider themselves lucky to even be ranked this high. After their dismantling at the hands of the Bills, they look like their season is done. This team should be much better than they are playing, as they have one of the more talented rosters in the conference; their talent is keeping them out of the basement at this juncture, but they need to start delivering.

12. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)

The Raiders are frustrating to watch, and one has to wonder when the team will turn to Aiden O'Connell over Garnder Minshew. It's not as though O'Connell is a sure bet to come in and ignite the hapless team, but you know what Minshew is at this point in his career. O'Connell may not be anything special or a long-term answer, but you don't know unless you give him a chance. It may go nowhere, but you already know that's where you're headed with Minshew under center.

11. Denver Broncos (1-2)

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The Broncos were a surprise this week, defeating the previously unbeaten Tampa Bay Buccaneers in commanding fashion, 26-7. The Broncos quietly rank in the top ten in both defensive EPA and success rate. The offense has been bad, like one of the worst in the league, so don't anticipate them picking up a lot of wins and suddenly competing in the AFC West; that said, they'll be competitive with the defense playing at this level.

10. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

Anthony Richardson hasn't developed into the franchise quarterback many anticipated, but let's not forget, that he's only six games into his career. Still, the Colts have struggled on both sides of the ball. Can they get their season turned around before it's too late? Maybe, but it's dependent on the development of Richardson, who has struggled to limit the turnovers this season as he's thrown six interceptions already.

9. New England Patriots (1-2)

Last week's ranking had the Patriots in the top five of the conference, ranked ahead of the Chiefs, but after a dismal performance against the New York Jets, this team is now falling back closer to where we expected them to be. The Patriots are in the middle of the pack in most advanced analytical categories, but they likely will continue to fall. Eventually, rookie quarterback Drake Maye will get his shot.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

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The Chiefs are undefeated, yet they actually dropped from sixth in last week's rankings to eighth this week. Kansas City is not playing good football and yet continues to find a way to win in the end. The Chiefs rank very poorly in several categories, including offensive success rate (16th), defensive EPA per play (22nd), defensive success rate (31st), and turnover differential (24th). Somehow, this team is still winning.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)

The Bengals coming in at number seven was a shock. I did not expect to see this, but what we are seeing here is the exact opposite of the Chiefs. The Bengals are playing well in many areas; however, they just can't seem to find a way to get the win. For example, they rank fifth in offensive success rate and tenth in defensive DVOA. If there is a team capable of earning a playoff spot after a 0-3 start, it's the Bengals.

6. Houston Texans (2-1)

The Texans appeared to be one of the best teams in the conference after Week 2, but things came crashing back down to earth after a humbling loss to the Minnesota Vikings, 34-7. It might surprise you to learn that while the Texans rank in the top ten in many defensive categories, the offense hasn't been nearly as efficient, ranking 20th in offensive success rate and 26th in offensive DVOA.

5. New York Jets (2-1)

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For the first time this season, the Jets looked like they might be that team many expected from them at the start of this season. The question will be if they can hold up health-wise, something they have struggled with, and can a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers play at a high level for 17 games and potentially into the playoffs?

4. Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

The Baltimore Ravens avoided a 0-3 start after a win against the Dallas Cowboys in a game the Ravens almost gave away. Still, despite the 1-2 record, the Ravens are clearly a good team and are playing well. They rank third in offensive success rate, seventh in turnover differential, and number one in the league in offensive DVOA. The poor showing from the defense has been the issue, and a bit of a surprise, too.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

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Raise your hand if you had the Steelers at 3-0. I know I was not one of them, but here we are. The Steelers are playing well and winning games with Justin Fields under center. Pittsburgh is getting it done on the defensive side though, ranking top five in defensive EPA per play, turnover differential, and defensive DVOA. The offense still needs some work though, but for now, they remain undefeated.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

Another surprise this season, but maybe it shouldn't have been. Say what you will about Jim Harbaugh, but he can coach, and they have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Similar to the Steelers, the Chargers are winning because of their defense. They rank number one in the league in defensive EPA per play, defensive success rate, and number five in turnover differential.

1. Buffalo Bills (3-0)

The Bills remain in the AFC's top spot, as they should. After a dominant win on Monday night against the Jaguars, the Bills look like the best team in the league. However, per the analytics breakdown, they are second overall, behind the New Orleans Saints. Still, Buffalo is playing like a team on a mission and having fun doing it. Josh Allen is the unquestioned MVP front-runner, and the team ranks no worse than seventh in all but one analytical category.