AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Numbers still love the Bills entering Week 6

We used several different metrics to rank each team in the AFC entering NFL Week 6.

Ronnie Eastham | Oct 9, 2024

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Ranking teams based strictly on advanced analytics has been an interesting and eye-opening project. Teams you would expect to see ranked highly based on their win/loss record may not rank where you'd think, and vice versa. Our Week 6 power rankings are no different; the results will shock you and likely make some fans mad or question the validity of these rankings, but this is what the numbers say. Let's get into the rankings and you decide for yourself.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took ten metrics ranging from DVOA rankings to EPA per play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values to create one singular value for each team.

16. Miami Dolphins (2-3)

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The Dolphins picked up a win in their Week 5 matchup against the one-win Patriots, and it was a nail-biter, 15 - 10. Miami has been beyond bad on offense, ranking 31st or 32nd in offensive EPA, success rate, and DVOA. The defense has only been slightly better, and the Dolphins ranked last overall in the league. It wouldn't be shocking to see Miami ultimately finish behind New England in the AFC East should its struggles persist.

15. Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Tennessee is not only next to last in the AFC -- it's next to last in the league. The Titans will likely be drafting in the top five in next year's draft. They struggle on offense and defense and generally have little going for them. The book is still out on Will Levis, too, but they have the rest of the season to figure that out before the next draft.

14. New England Patriots (1-4)

The Patriots have made a quarterback change, as they're planning to start third-overall pick Drake Maye moving forward. He's an immensely talented prospect who likely should've been starting from the get-go, and it's possible that he rejuvenates New England. It better hope that this is the case, as the team has had little to get excited about its rattled off four straight losses.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

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From postseason hopeful to 1-4 with the season already in the balance. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely the Jaguars make the playoffs at this point. Jacksonville ranks 30th in point differential and last in defensive DVOA. It's 25th in turnover differential per game and ranks top 20 in only four of the nine metrics. It's possible the Jaguars rattle off a few straight wins after picking up their first W of the season, but based on what we've seen through five weeks, this doesn't look likely.

12. Cleveland Browns (1-4)

The Cleveland Browns are in a bad place with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The deal that brought him over and his subsequent mega-contract is in contention for the worst transaction in NFL history. Cleveland's defense hasn't been terrible, ranking eighth in defensive EPA per play and success rate. The problem is on the offensive side where it ranks 32nd in offensive success rate and DVOA and 31st in offensive EPA per play.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)

The Raiders finally wised up and benched Gardner Minshew mid-way through Week 5 and went with second-year quarterback Aiden O'Connell. It was too late by the time they made the switch, but we'll see if they stick with him going forward. Even still, they ranked eighth in offensive success rate but ranked poorly in all other offensive and defensive metrics.

10. New York Jets (2-3)

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The Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh Tuesday and are a mess. It's not surprising that Saleh was fired, but seeing him canned after five weeks was a bit eye-opening. Despite the firing, I don't see much change in the team's fortunes going forward. The Jets' defense was supposed to be their calling card, yet they rank 25th in defensive EPA per play and success rate.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

At least the Steelers can say they aren't the only team that started 3-0 before dropping back-to-back games, the difference being they haven't ranked highly in any of the metrics other than turnover differential per game, which was a big reason they started the season the way they did. Still, the Steelers will be a player in the Wild Card race.

8. Houston Texans (4-1)

I know the Texans are 4-1, you don't need to remind me. However, they haven't been overly impressive in several metrics, ranking 22nd in offensive success rate and 21st in offensive DVOA. These are surprising ranks given the Texans' offense, on paper, looks far better. They also rank 25th in turnover differential per game and 22nd in point differential. At the end of the day, all that matters is stacking wins.

7. Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

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The Colts may need to decide if they want to continue with Anthony Richardson or pivot to Joe Flacco, who was amazing against the Jaguars. He threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort. If he continues to play like that and the Colts get Jonathan Taylor healthy, they could be a problem in the AFC.

6. Denver Broncos (3-2)

The Broncos sitting at 3-2 through five weeks is a bit surprising, but here they are. Bo Nix hasn't been great, but he's showing why the Broncos chose to start him right away. That said, it's the Broncos' defense that is carrying this team right now, where they rank top ten in all defensive metrics and point differential.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Chargers were on a bye but came in at No. 5 in the AFC rankings. Similar to the Broncos, it's been mainly their defense that has excelled this season. While not ranked as highly as the Broncos on the defensive side, they are better on the offensive side, plus ranked third in turnover differential per game.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

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The Chiefs' ascent in the rankings over recent weeks spells trouble for the rest of the AFC. As they continue to win games, they are playing better each week. This team is well on their way to a potential three-peat. The only area of concern is turnover differential per game, where they rank 29th. This could get them in trouble come playoff time, but then again, it's the Chiefs, they typically turn it up a notch in January.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)

The Bengals can't seem to get wins in the early part of this season, with just one through the first five games. However, the numbers say this is a very good team. They rank third in the AFC and seventh in the league. They rank in the top five in offensive EPA per play and success rate. They are top ten in defensive EPA per play and success rate, as well. If the Bengals can start stacking some wins and claw their way into the playoffs, they will be a very difficult out.

2. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens offense has been on a tear the last couple of weeks, putting up point totals of 35 and 41, and this shows in the offensive metrics. They rank third and fifth in offensive EPA per play and success rate, respectively. They are also number one in offensive DVOA. The defense has been solid in many of the metrics, as well, this after a slow start.

1. Buffalo Bills (3-2)

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I'll be the first to admit that if I were ranking teams based on personal opinion and what these teams have done lately, the Buffalo Bills would not be ranked No. 1. But they aren't just No. 1 in the AFC based on the numbers, they are number one overall in the NFL. Despite the loss to the Texans, they rank top ten in every advanced analytical metric and in the top five in five of the nine metrics used. The Bills are also number one in turnover differential per game.

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