AFC Analytical Power Rankings: True contenders becoming clear entering Week 8

We've turned to analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season. Where do the Buffalo Bills slot in?

Ronnie Eastham | 3 Hours Ago

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These aren't your grandfather's power rankings. We take a different look at how we rank teams; out are subjective and random opinions or biases, in are analytics and facts. The Buffalo Bills won big in Week 7 and the Baltimore Ravens continued winning, but allowed 31 points to the Bucs. How does that affect the rankings? The Kansas City Chiefs remained unbeaten and have climbed the rankings each week lately. The AFC may not be as strong as initially thought, but the conference has some powerhouses. Let's see how they all stack up with one another.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took nine metrics, ranging from DVOArankings to EPA per-play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values, to create one singular value for each team.

16. New England Patriots (1-6)

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The Patriots switched to rookie quarterback Drake Maye two weeks ago, and it hasn't resulted in wins or any upward charge in these rankings. However, through two games, Maye is completing 64.1% of his passes for 541 yards and five touchdowns. He's also thrown two picks. The Patriots aren't that good, ranking 30th in offensive and defensive DVOA.

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)

The Raiders are a mess and are now going back to quarterback Gardner Minshew due to an injury suffered by Aiden O'Connell. They traded receiver Davante Adams, and their only legit weapon on offense is now rookie tight end Brock Bowers. Their lack of offensive talent shows, ranking 29th in offensive DVOA. There is some decent play defensively, where they rank 13th and 15th in defensive EPA and success rate, respectively.

14. Miami Dolphins (2-4)

The Dolphins are getting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back soon and they need him in a big way. Miami ranks 32nd and 31st in offensive EPA and success rate. The defense has fared better, ranking relatively high in defensive EPA and success rate, but the DVOA metric doesn't shine brightly for the defense.

13. Cleveland Browns (1-6)

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Quarterback Deshaun Watson is done for the season due to injury due to an Achilles rupture. Jameis Winston steps in and might be a better option at this point. Watson has been terrible, and the metrics bear that out, ranking dead last in offensive success rate and DVOA. With Winston behind center and Nick Chubb back in the lineup, maybe the Browns' offense can be competitive at least.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Jacksonville entered the 2024 campaign with grand ambitions, but it's now vying for a top pick in next year's draft. Despite all the questions from fans regarding Trevor Lawrence, he's not the issue. The Jags' offense falls somewhere in the middle of the pack in offensive EPA and success rate, but dead last in defensive DVOA and 31st in EPA.

11. Tennessee Titans (1-5)

Despite giving up 34 points to the Bills, the Titans still rank very high in several defensive metrics, including 11th in defensive EPA and DVOA while also ranking number one in defensive success rate. The offensive side is the issue, ranking 30th in success rate and 27th in DVOA.

10. New York Jets (2-5)

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Sorry Jets fans, your team is a train wreck. Aaron Rodgers seemingly is running the team and is only a Randall Cobb signing away from getting the entire gang back together. The team's highest rank in any metric is defensive success rate at 11th. However, the DVOA numbers weren't as friendly, where they rank 21st in both offensive and defense.

9. Indianapolis Colts (4-3)

Anthony Richardson is in Week 8 of his second year in the league yet has played in only nine games in his career. He's still basically a rookie, and it shows. He's completing less than 50 percent of his passes and has four touchdowns with six interceptions. The Colts' offense ranks 25th in offensive success rate, but the defense has its struggles too, ranking 22nd in DVOA.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)

The Bengals have won back-to-back games and are starting to get back into the race. It could be too late for a division title, but they're a player in the Wild Card race. The Bengals show out terrific on offense, ranking sixth in EPA and DVOA. Unfortunately, the defense isn't holding up their end of the bargain, ranking 24th in EPA and 20th in DVOA.

7. Denver Broncos (4-3)

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The Broncos might find their way into the playoffs, and they are getting it done on the strength of their defense. They rank second in defensive EPA, fourth in success rate, and third in DVOA. Bo Nix and the offense are trying to do their part, but it's been a struggle. They rank 25th in EPA and 24th in DVOA.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (3-3)

The Chargers are similar to the Broncos, getting wins with defensive prowess but having problems on offense. Their defense ranks fourth in EPA, ninth in success rate, and eighth in DVOA. However, the offense ranks low 20s in all offensive categories.

5. Houston Texans (5-2)

The talent of the Texans' offensive weapons is not reflected in the analytics. Their best offensive rank is 18th in EPA and DVOA. On the flip side, the defense is outstanding, ranking seventh in EPA, sixth in success rate, and second in DVOA.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

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The Steelers switched from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson, and they scored their most points in a game this season. Will that trend continue as the season progresses? Time will tell, but on offense, they still ranked pretty good in EPA at 12th; however, they sit at 20th in success rate and 19th in DVOA. They are ranked in the top ten for defensive EPA and DVOA and are also second in average turnover differential.

3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

The Ravens' offense is exciting to watch and quarterback Lamar Jackson might win his third league MVP award. The offense isn't the issue with Baltimore's ranking, it's the defense. The Ravens' defense ranks an abysmal 26th in EPA, 16th in success rate, and 13th in DVOA. Their offensive DVOA ranks highest in the league and they are second in terms of success rate.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)

Just a few weeks ago the Chiefs ranked 18th in the league in our standings; however, they have quickly climbed the polls thanks to the analytics now reflecting their record. Patrick Mahomes hasn't played well statistically, but the offense ranks first in success rate and seventh in DVOA. The defense is still amazing, ranking fourth in DVOA and seventh in EPA. One area bringing them down is the turnover differential average, where they rank 25th.

1. Buffalo Bills (5-2)

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The Bills retained the top spot again and moved up a spot in the overall rankings, to number two in the league. The Bills are one of the few teams that rank very well in every analytical metric. They rank 11th or better in every category, including the top five in offensive EPA, turnover differential average, point differential, and offensive DVOA.

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