Bills can clinch AFC East title this week in simple scenario

The Buffalo Bills can lock up a fifth consecutive division crown with five weeks to go.

Ralph Ventre | Nov 25, 2024

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

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The Buffalo Bills' drive for five straight division titles is likely to reach the finish line unexpectedly early this year.

Buffalo (9-2) leads the second-place Miami Dolphins (5-6) by 4.0 full games, and the Bills also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over their rivals due to the home-and-home season sweep.

If two results go a certain way this week, Buffalo will extend its advantage to 5.0 games with five to play and mathematically clinch the AFC East division title in Week 13.

The Dolphins visit the Green Bay Packers for a Thanksgiving night primetime affair on November 28. Should the Packers win on Thursday, then the Bills will play for the division title against the floundering San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.

To put it simply, one more Dolphins' loss coupled with a Bills' win clinches the AFC East for Buffalo for the fifth straight season.

Last year, the Bills needed all 17 games to overtake Miami with the race coming down to the head-to-head regular season finale at Hard Rock Stadium. Buffalo trailed the Dolphins by 1.0 game entering Week 18 but carried a 1-0 advantage in the season series.

The Bills' 21-14 win pulled the team into a first-place tie with Miami at 11-6 overall and the second head-to-head victory was the determining factor.

Despite handicappers viewing the Dolphins and the New York Jets as serious threats to the Bills' reign atop the division, Buffalo has expanded the gap between itself and its AFC East rivals this season.

After dismantling Miami in Week 2, the Bills swept the season series when Tyler Bass nailed a franchise-record 61-yard field goal on November 3. As for the Jets, Buffalo outlasted Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the road in Week 6, and the two will meet again in Week 17 at Highmark Stadium.

The Bills are 22-5 in regular season games against division opponents since 2020.

Nov 3, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

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