A look at Bills' most likely first-round playoff opponent following Week 15 win over Lions

Buffalo is in firm control of the second seed in the AFC playoffs with three games left to play this season. Here's who they'd be slated to play in the first round, if the playoffs began this week.

Kilty Cleary | 4 Hours Ago

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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The Buffalo Bills are flying high after their 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday, but with the playoffs approaching fast, fans are already starting to wonder: who will Buffalo face in the first round? While there’s still a chance for the Bills to snag the coveted number-one seed in the AFC, their playoff path is taking shape and it’s time to dive into the possibilities.

The Bills, sitting at 11-3, have three games left to solidify their playoff position, two matchups against the New England Patriots, and the season finale against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.

The Bills' likeliest first-round opponent:
Broncos - 40%
Chargers - 30%
Bye - 25%
Colts - 5%
— Kevin Massare (@KevinMassare) December 16, 2024

These games aren’t just about racking up wins; they’ll play a pivotal role in determining whether the Bills can steal the top seed from the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who have a tougher schedule with games against the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos.

If the playoffs started today, the Bills would likely face the Denver Broncos in the opening round. Denver improved to 9-5 after a dominant 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts, showcasing the form that could make them a tough opponent.

The Broncos bring a dangerous combination of a strong defense and an offense that’s finding its rhythm late in the season. Facing them in the first round would be no cakewalk, but with Josh Allen playing at an MVP level, the Bills are built to handle tough challenges.

Of course, the ultimate goal for Buffalo is securing the top seed in the AFC, which would give them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. For that to happen, they’ll need to win out and hope the Chiefs stumble in their final stretch.

Buffalo Bills safety Kareem Jackson (27) breaks a pass against Detroit Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick (17). / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While Kansas City’s schedule looks favorable, anything can happen in the NFL, and the Bills will be keeping a close eye on Patrick Mahomes and company.

For now, the Bills are focused on finishing strong and locking up the best possible playoff position. As we head into the final weeks of the season, the potential matchups will continue to evolve, and the anticipation will only grow.

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