AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Do the Bills fall entering NFL Week 5?

The Buffalo Bills got blasted by the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs remain unbeaten, causing some shakeup in this week's top five.

Ronnie Eastham | Oct 3, 2024

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The Baltimore Ravens dominated the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 while the Kansas City Chiefs secured another narrow victory to maintain their undefeated season. The Texans won a close game against the winless Jaguars, and the Dolphins continue to implode. Cincinnati finally got into the win column and the Colts handed the Steelers their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Patriots aren't a good football team and the Jets looked like hot garbage against a weak Broncos team. With that, here are the AFC analytical power rankings for entering Week 5.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took ten metrics ranging from DVOA rankings to EPA per play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values to create one singular value for each team.

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-2)

Despite a 2-2 record, the Las Vegas Raiders occupy the last spot in the AFC rankings. There are plenty of problems in Vegas, one of the most paramount being quarterback; Aidan O'Connell should be starting, but here we are, and now rumors are swirling that the Raiders are shopping Davante Adams. If they move Adams, it wouldn't be shocking to see them become frontrunners for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. When looking at the metrics, the Raiders aren't good at anything. Their best rank is 19th in offensive success rate. They don't rank better than 25th in any other metric.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

The Jaguars were close to pulling off an upset of the Texans but couldn't get it done. They are the league's only winless team. Jacksonville is almost as bad as the Raiders. Its best rank is 18th in defensive success. The playoffs at this point are out for the Jags, and now it's just a matter of how long Doug Pederson will be able to hold onto his job.

14. New England Patriots (1-3)

The Patriots were in the top five after two weeks of the season, but the more games are played, the more accurate the analytics become. The Patriots are a perfect example, as they have fallen nine spots over the last two weeks. It's only a matter of time before rookie Drake Maye takes over the starting role at this point, as he should.

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13. Miami Dolphins (1-3)

For all those who debate Tua Tagovailoa as a true franchise quarterback, it's obvious he's great for what the Dolphins do on offense regardless of your stance. The Miami offense has been terrible with both Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley at the helm. We have not heard a timeline for Tagovailoa's return, or even if he will return, but the Dolphins need him or this season will be lost soon.

12. Cleveland Browns (1-3)

It appears Deshaun Watson will never be the quarterback we saw with the Houston Texans. The Browns made this bed, and now they have to sleep in it. I don't know that there is anything they can do in the foreseeable future, too; they may be stuck with him for the long haul. With so much money wrapped up in his contract, they don't have much room to improve the (admittedly quite talented) roster, either.

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11. Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Will Levis has struggled to, at times, comical degrees, and DeAndre Hopkins isn't in his prime. As a result, the Tennessee offense hasn't been good. The Titans have been solid defensively, ranking seventh and 11th in success rate and EPA per play, respectively. Levis left the game early in Week 4 and Mason Rudolph finished, leading the Titans to their first win of the season.

10. Denver Broncos (2-2)

Bo Nix has had his ups and downs, as is to be expected from a rookie. Similar to the Titans, the Broncos are good on the defensive side, where they rank eighth and 11th in EPA per play and success rate. The Broncos don't have a lot of weapons around Nix, but the Broncos might finally have their quarterback and head coach. It won't be this season, but the Broncos are on their way back.

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9. Houston Texans (3-1)

The Texans squeaked past the Jaguars, but there will be games when you don't play your best and you have to find a way to pull out the win. It's a little surprising that the numbers show the Texans haven't been that good on offense, not ranking better than 16th in any offensive category. Their defense is a different story, ranking 11th and sixth in EPA per play and DVOA.

8. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson seems to struggle with staying healthy and hopefully, he can still go this week. The Colts have a good team with Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor, plus they are playing well on defense. Indianapolis could get on a roll and still be a player in the AFC South.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

The Bengals have ranked relatively high despite not winning, but they finally got in the win column, taking down the Carolina Panthers (but then again, it's the Panthers). Will the Bengals get on a win streak now and be a player in the AFC, or is this team not as good as we thought? The metrics say they are a good team, which is something the eye test would tend to agree with.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

I'm not sold on the Chargers despite what the numbers say, but those numbers are skewed due to wins against the Panthers and Raiders. Again, the more games are played, the more accurate the metrics become, and we're starting to see the Chargers fall back in the overall AFC rankings.

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5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

For the first time since the start of our weekly analytical rankings, the Chiefs have successfully entered the top five. They still haven't put together a complete game, but a Chiefs team that's not playing well, yet winning, will be dangerous. Also, based on the metrics, they are starting to bring it together; however, they await word on the injury status of premier wideout Rashee Rice.

4. New York Jets (2-2)

This is one of the more surprising rankings. It doesn't seem like the Jets are playing well this season, yet here they are, sitting at No. 4 in the AFC. They rank 16th or better in every category except offensive DVOA, where they are 22nd. But they rank top ten in offensive EPA per play, success rate, defensive EPA per play, turnover, and point differential.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Steelers fell from the unbeaten ranks after a defeat at the hands of the Colts. The Steelers remain ranked high due to their previous three games. Can they get back to winning, or will they begin to falter? The Justin Fields-led offense doesn't rank highly in any offensive metrics, but they get just enough plays out to complement their elite defense.

2. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

Ravens fans won't like this ranking since they crushed the Bills; they should be higher than Buffalo, no? But this is why I enjoy doing these ranks based solely on the season advanced analytics, because it's not reactionary; you won't find any recency bias in these rankings. The metrics take into all the games, and until now, the Ravens haven't looked nearly as good as they did last week. That said, they may have found their groove and could be positioned to get rolling.

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1. Buffalo Bills (3-1)

Despite the terrible loss on Sunday Night Football, the Bills rank very high in several categories. They rank top ten in the league in every category and top five in four of them, including No. 1 in both offensive EPA per play and success rate and second in turnover differential.

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