Smart Move? Betting on seemingly low TD Pass Total for Bills' QB Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills' QB Josh Allen has passed for 28+ touchdowns four years in a row..

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the football against the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

It seems like a gamble worth taking, especially when considering recent history.

Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen has thrown at least 29 touchdowns passes each of the last four seasons. That's why it was a bit surprising to see Allen's season prop total set at 27.5 TD passes for 2024.

DraftKings sportsbook is offering the OVER bet at +110 odds.

Sports Illustrated's Jennifer Piacenti highlighted the player prop bet in the Buffalo edition of "32 Teams in 32 Days."

From SI's Bills Retool Roster to Get Past Chiefs and Bengals:

Best bet: Allen over 27.5 passing touchdowns (+110) at DraftKings

Sure, the Bills might look very different on paper, but Allen has not thrown for fewer than 28 TDs since 2019. I’m bullish on the Bills with the makeover. Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman are good enough to get this done, and I like the plus-money here. — Jennifer Piacenti

Allen has thrown for 167 touchdowns over 94 career games. His last four season totals are as follows — 29, 35, 36, 37.

RELATED: Another Category Where Josh Allen Tops NFL

The 28-year-old Allen has also shown great durability thus far and has proven worthy of backing on the betting market.

In terms of touchdowns, Allen has a history of distributing the ball to a wide array of receivers, therefore, it shouldn't matter much that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer on the roster. Ten different Bills made TD catches from Allen in 2023. In 2020, that number was 12.

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