Bills at Patriots: 3 Storylines to Follow

Can Bills solve a defense that nearly shut them out last time in a game that could mean everything to Sean McDermott?

So much was made about the New England Patriots calling 46 running plays against just three passes on their way to 222 yards on the ground in a 14-10 win at Buffalo the first time they played the Bills this season.

But it was the Patriots' defense that dominated and won the game. And if not for a muffed punt, the Bills (8-6) wouldn't have even scored the one touchdown they did finish with in turning over first place in the AFC East to their rivals.

So as the teams prepare for Sunday's rematch, it's a perfect way to start our top storylines of the week.

Points won't be easy

Bills safety Jordan Poyer said Wednesday that he expects points to "be at a premium," against the Patriots (9-5).

They certainly were the first time around as the Bills came away with just a touchdown and a field goal, with the touchdown being an unexpected gift certificate that they cashed immediately after recovering the previously mentioned unforced muffed punt at the 14.

Poor as the Bills' offense was on a night in which wind gusts reached 50 miles per hour, the Patriots moved the ball even less, finishing with just 241 yards and 11 first downs.

The only touchdown they scored came on a 64-yard run by Damien Harris. Take that and the kneel-down by Patriots quarterback Mac Jones on the final play of the game away, and they were limited to 3.7 yards per rush on their 44 other attempts.

Damien Harris Takes it 64 Yards for the TOUCHDOWN! Patriots lead 8-0!#nfl #afc #football #sports #patriots #run #bills #buffalo #newengland #patsnation pic.twitter.com/mbOtNAffGY

— Believe Me Later (@_BelieveMeLater) December 7, 2021

Hardly impressive.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick nevetheless was inexplicably credited by some as a genius for coming up with that offensive approach.

Whatever.

Smart money is on the Patriots

In Las Vegas, the initial line that favored the Patriots by 1½ points has jumped to 2½, which means almost all the money is flowing toward New England.

That's not hard to understand, given how much the Bills have struggled against the best teams on their schedule and their 0-5 record in one-score games, including the defensive scrum against the Patriots the first time around.

Although the weather conditions in Foxboro, Mass. are expected to be much milder, there's no evidence to suggest the Bills will do any better. They've malfunctioned in good weather as well as bad, with the only common denominator in their poor performances being the quality of their opponents.

The Bills' wins this season have come against Miami (twice), Washington, Houston, Kansas City, the New York Jets, New Orleans and Carolina. Of those, only Kansas City has a winning record heading into this weekend.

The Bills have lost to New England (9-5), Tennessee (9-5), Pittsburgh (7-6-1), Jacksonville (2-12), Indianapolis (8-6) and Tampa Bay (10-4). Three of those teams lead their respective divisions.

Even with 2½ points, there's essentially no evidence to suggest the Bills would be a good bet in this game.

Biggest game ever for McDermott?

Sunday's game could be the biggest of coach Sean McDermott's head-coaching career. Even bigger than the AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs last January.

A win would give command of the division back to the Bills with just two games remaining — at home against losing opponents. A loss would eliminate them from repeating as division champs for the first time since the early 1990s, which is the last time any team other than the Patriots won the division two straight years.

At this stage of McDermott's career, given the winning culture he's established, this likely is going to go down as a watershed game.

Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro. Email to Nicky300@aol.com.