Bills vs. Chiefs for AFC title: A rematch for the ages

Chiefs ran wild over Bills in regular season en route to a 26-17 win in October, but both teams will have new wrinkles this time around.

When they met a little more than three months ago, the Bills were coming off a blowout loss at Tennessee and the misery carried over into a 26-17 loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs.

But the Bills' only loss since then came on the "Hail Murray" pass at the end of their game at Arizona a month later, and the Chiefs have been 0-8-1 against the spread in their last nine games heading into Sunday's rematch for the AFC championship in Kansas City.

This doesn't necessarily portend a positive result for the Bills, who enter as three-point underdogs, but it does point to a fascinating clash.

Here's a closer look:

Game Facts

• Who: Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
• What: AFC Championship Game
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• When: 6:40 p.m. Sunday
• TV: CBS
• The spread: Chiefs favored by 3
• Total points: 54½

Three storylines

1. True home game for Chiefs.

Unlike other stadiums, such as Bills Stadium, which for the playoffs was allowed only aroud 10% capacity, the restrictions in Missouri are a little looser. The Chiefs will be allowed to fill Arrowhead at 22%, meaning the NFL's loudest outdoor stadium will welcome around 17,000 fans.

2. Student vs. Teacher.

Bills coach Sean McDermott worked under Chiefs coach Andy Reid for 11 seasons in Philadelphia, eventually becoming the Eagles' defensive coordinator, before being let go after the 2010 season. But the two have remained close and their mutual admiration defines their bond.

Reid this week lobbied for McDermott to be named the NFL's Coach of the Year.

3. Extra motivation?

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill might have given the Bills bulletin-board material when he snuck this line into the end of a response in his Zoom press conference on Friday:

"When the Super Bowl is here, you know the Chiefs will be in the Super Bowl, baby," he said.

The Bills haven't been polled for a response. But you can bet they've seen the quote and heard the sound bite.

Five matchups to watch

1. Bills safeties vs. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

Although Mahomes has been cleared from the concussion he suffered in last week's too-close-for-comfort playoff win over the Cleveland Browns, he's still dealing with a bit of a mysterious toe injury he also suffered in that game.

Mahomes on Friday downplayed its significance.

"The next day it was very sore," he said, "and every single day since then it’s gotten a lot better. It’s stuff that you deal with being a football player. You deal with injuries. Luckily enough for me, this wasn’t as bad as it looked and it felt the day of and the day after."

Whether Mahomes can run like normal or not, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde will be under enormous pressure as the last line of defense against the explosive wide receiving corps, Mahomes when he gets on the move to either create extra time to throw or take it himself and the running backs when they get past the first level.

In their first meeting, the Bills played extra soft on defense to keep the ball from going over their heads. While they succeeded with that, they were exploited for more than 250 yards on the ground.

Should be interesting to see how they play it this time around.

2. Bills pass rush vs. Mahomes.

The job they did to prevent Lamar Jackson from escaping the pocket in last week's playoff win was outstanding. But everyone knows defending Mahomes, who has completed passes with both arms and while doing everything but standing on his head, is a much different deal.

Still, the Browns last week did a decent job before Mahomes was forced to leave the game. And if not for an egregious missed call by an official who was standing a yard away and missed a clear personal foul, turning a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line into Chiefs ball at the 20 late in the first half, we might be talking about Baker Mayfield now instead of Mahomes.

The Browns' Rashard Higgins stretched for the pylon but fumbled when he was hit by Daniel Sorensen, who deliberately lowered his head to initiate helmet-to-helmet contact. The ball squirted into the end zone and then out of bounds for a touchback, giving Chiefs possession when no penalty was called.

Mahomes was 21-for-30 with 255 yards and a touchdown but was limited to 14 yards on three carries.

3. Bills CB Tre'Davious White vs. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill.

Hill caught a career-high 15 TD passes this season while surpassing 1,000 receiving yards for the third time in four years. He was a first-team All-Pro Selection this year.

White was a first-team All-Pro last year who according to Pro Football Focus allowed career highs in touchdowns (five), completion percentage (61.2%) and passer rating (95.4) this season. But that doesn't necessarily mean Mahomes should be looking to exploit him.

4. Bills RB Devin Singletary vs. Chiefs run defense.

The Bills have been able to get away with abandoning their running game for too long, and the Chiefs will almost certainly dare them to run it more, taking the ball out of the hands of quarterback Josh Allen, who had an MVP-caliber season.

Last week, the Bills attempted just 16 runs. Seven were by Allen as Singletary was held to 25 yards on seven attempts.

So look for the Chiefs to take the same approach defensively as the Bills did in their first meeting.

5. Stefon Diggs vs. Chiefs secondary.

Diggs seems to be a man on a mission since being traded to Buffalo. He has followed up his career-best regular season with more than 100 receiving yards in each of their first two playoff games while playing with an oblique strain.

Can he be stopped?

Only if the Bills fail with their running game to force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage. And even then, there's a question.

Diggs is in such a great place both personally and professionally this season that it would be almost impossible for him not to have a positive impact for the Bills in this game.

Injuries

Bills: DT Vernon Butler (quadricep) and WR Gabriel Davis (ankle) are questionable.

Chiefs: LB Willie Gay (ankle) is out. RB Le'Veon Bell (knee), CB Bashaud Breeland (concussion, shoulder), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip), CB Rashad Fenton (foot) and WR Sammy Watkins (calf) are questionable.

Prediction

After two playoff victories in which they didn't play their best football, the Bills are due to play a cleaner game offensively, and the feeling here is that they will.

The two biggest questions for the Bills will revolve around their defense.

Will they play soft like they did the last time to prevent the ball from going over their heads and force the Chiefs to beat them on the ground? And will the toe injury Mahomes sustained keep him from having that extra degree of elusiveness that helps make him the finest quarterback in the universe?

Either way, the sense here is that the Bills have some unfinished business from nearly three decades ago that they'd like to take care of in Tampa in two weeks.

Bills 33, Chiefs 30