Early season overreaction: Are Bills in danger of missing the 2024 NFL playoffs?

It's been an ugly two weeks for the Buffalo Bills, and while the year is still young, a portion of the fanbase is wondering if the team will miss the playoffs.

Ronnie Eastham | Oct 10, 2024

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Buffalo Bills fans are unique in a multitude of ways, but they are like every other fanbase in sports in that they have a tendency to overreact. Emotional responses to unfavorable results are human nature for fans who dedicate a part of themselves to their favorite team, and after a 3-2 start to the 2024 campaign and back-to-back ugly losses, a portion of the fanbase is wondering whether the team needs to make a significant change or if Buffalo is in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2018.

The answer is (likely) a resounding no, and we can deduce this just by looking at the AFC East. The division is far weaker than many anticipated it would be entering the year; the New York Jets just fired their head coach, and the Miami Dolphins are without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for the foreseeable future. The New England Patriots were never expected to compete for the AFC East and are now making a change at quarterback.

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It's conceivable the division can be won with a 9-8 record this season, and if the Bills can't win nine games, then they don't deserve their fifth straight division title. Most would agree that Buffalo will win at least that many games even with its current struggles; it'll likely end up closer to 10 or 11. This is assuming the Bills can get and stay healthy, though. The other teams in the AFC East have their issues, but the Bills are not without their own, injuries being the biggest. If Buffalo wins on Monday night against the Jets, it may have to do it without James Cook and Khalil Shakir. Winning a divisional clash on the road sans two of their biggest offensive contributors may pave the way for the Bills to go a perfect 6-0 in the AFC East this year.

If you look at the advanced analytics, the Bills are rated in the upper echelon of teams. They just have to get out of their own way, and they should be fine. A lot has been made this week about head coach Sean McDermott and whether he should be shown the exit door given his game management gaffes in Week 5; there's also talk about the team's receiving corps being insufficient in talent after the group's four-total catch outing last week. It's been a medley of misfortune for Buffalo over the past two weeks, but after the team looked dominant over the first three games of the season, it's a bit premature to smash the panic button.

The Bills played some inferior defenses in those first few weeks, but the Ravens and Texans aren't exactly elite defenses, either. There has been such a drastic dropoff from earlier in the season to these last two games that one can conclude the truth of Buffalo's offense lies somewhere in between. With so many new offensive weapons, it'll take time to come together. Just remain patient; the defense has played well despite its injuries, and starting nickel defender Taron Johnson looks set to return. As long as the offense can again play to the level it displayed over the first three weeks, this season is certainly not lost.

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