Bills Central

Bills sleepers you should be targeting in your fantasy football drafts

Nothing feels better than beating your league-mates because you were smarter in the draft.

Chris Seth

You know about Buffalo Bills' wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10), but he's not a household name outside Bills Mafia.
You know about Buffalo Bills' wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10), but he's not a household name outside Bills Mafia. / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and
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Much like the NFL news cycle, fantasy football no longer has an offseason. Serious fantasy football players have already started their draft prep, best ball fanatics have 50+ teams, and every Tom, Dick, and Housh-mazilly has a magazine that was published a month ago. You have to be on top of your game to find an unsung gem in fantasy football nowadays.

You could analyze the rankings from several of hundreds of fantasy sites, or you could deep dive into each team and familiarize yourself with the rosters to a degree that your league-mates begin to question whether or not you still have your job. That’s where we come in. We’re here to make you seem so smart that you must be unemployed. Wait. Oh, nevermind.

This article will bring you up to speed on three Buffalo Bills’ players who are undervalued in fantasy football right now. They will cross a depth of average draft positions and could be deemed sleepers or breakouts or whatever the High Reverand Algorithm decides is trendy today.

WR Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir
Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) runs the ball pressured by Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward (97) in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re a consigliere in Bills’ Mafia, then you already know Khalil Shakir, but there is a good chance your friends don’t. They may have heard his name or seen his crazy TD in the Wild Card round matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but do they know he led the Bills in receiving yards in Weeks 10-18? He outgained Stefon Diggs by close to forty yards (387-349) in that time frame on close to 30 fewer targets (64-26). Things get even more impressive comparing Shakir to the rest of the NFL over those weeks (receivers with 20+ targets):

  • Tied for first in On Target Catch Percentage (100%)
  • First in Yards/Target (14.9)
  • First in Boom Rate (53.8%), which is the percentage plays that generated greater than a full point in EPA for the offense
  • Second in EPA/Target (0.97)
  • Eleventh in Total EPA (25.26)

Shakir’s ADP on ESPN is 183rd overall, ranking 69th among WRs. At PFF, those numbers are 148th and 63rd. The experts at Fantasy Life rank the third-year wideout at 124th overall and 55th in his position group.

The Bills appear to be getting ready to go receiver-by-committee behind Dalton Kincaid, but Shakir might very well end up the most highly targeted in that group. Shakir thrived under then-interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and now that the interim tag is dropped and Diggs has moved to Houston, Shakir’s star is as bright as you can find in the Bills’ WR room.

Related: Young WR named Bills' 'most underrated' player, earns comparison to former All-Pro

RB Ray Davis

Ray Davis
Kentucky's Ray Davis (1) took photos with fans after Kentucky defeated Louisville 38-31 on Saturday afternoon at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Nov. 25, 2023. / Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA

Ray Davis should already be on your radar if you play dynasty, but there is late-round value in the Bills’ rookie running back. Davis has potential as an all-around back having been the first player to ever have more than 1,000 yards at three different schools. At 5’10” and 216 lbs, Davis averaged more than four yards per carry on A gap runs and more than six yards per carry on wide runs, so he brings capability running both inside and out. His excellent footwork and vision more than make up for this average athleticism and combine with his contact balance and decisiveness to create a formidable RB2.

Plus, Davis has more than 90 receptions in his college career to go along with seven TDs and more than 10 yards per reception in 2023, so there is no worry about him losing touches due to a lack of versatility.

Consider this recommendation because it is based on the Bills’ exhibited history as well. In Weeks 1-6, while Damien Harris was still healthy, he and Latavius Murray had twice as many rushing attempts inside the five-yard line as the rest of the team (10-5), and Allen only had three. After Harris’ injury and Murray showing he was fading, from Weeks 7-18, Allen had 12 of the team’s 20 carries inside the five. Allen is a remarkable weapon, but the Bills want to protect him, and they have sought out an effective alternative for goal-line carries for a few years. I’ll just leave this here:

Davis was tenth in the FBS in 2023 in EPA/Att inside the five-yard line (RBs with 10+ attempts) including eight TDs.

My money is already where my mouth is: Davis is on two of my dynasty teams.

Related: WATCH: Savannah Bananas pay homage to Bills Mafia, break table at Buffalo game

TE Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox
Bills tight end Dawson Knox had 5 catches for 65 yards against the Bengals. / JAMIE GERMANO / USA TODAY NETWORK

Dawson Knox is a bit of a forgotten man in the hype surrounding Dalton Kincaid’s breakout rookie season, but it’s wise to remember the Bills are paying Knox close to $10M in 2023 - 12th most for a tight end - and that he was a big part of their offensive plans before injury disrupted those intentions.

Heading into the 2023 season, the addition of Kincaid in the 2023 draft had analysts buzzing about the Bills’ potential switch to a 12-personnel-heavy scheme. Twelve personnel uses one RB with two TEs, leaving room for two WRs in the formation. The two TEs envisioned in that scheme for the BIlls were Kincaid and Knox, and the season started out that way. In Weeks 1-7, the Bills used 12-personnel at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL at 32%. Then Knox got hurt.

In Weeks 8-14 (Knox returned in Week 14), the Bills ranked 28th overall in 12-personnel usage, down to 10% of offensive snaps. Knox was likely never 100% even after he returned to play, and the offensive shake-up from changing offensive coordinators mid-season probably played into leaving that grouping behind.

Then came the Bills’ off-season, which saw tenured vet after tenured vet released or traded or walk in free agency. All of this turnover has drastically reshaped the pass catcher group, leaving Kincaid the presumed primary target. Even if Kincaid is the focus of the passing game, he won’t absorb all of the targets the Bills lost from 2023. When all of those pass-catchers left, 55.5% of the Bills’ passing targets went with them, so even if Kincaid reveals himself as the prince who was promised, there are buckets of targets left over, and Curtis Samuel will not get all of them no matter how good he was with Brady in 2020. Add in that Knox and Josh Allen have had a special connection both on and off the field since Knox was drafted.

These three players should outplay their draft investment, and it is always more fun to root for the players on your favorite team if they're fantasy assets too. Plus, winning because you outsmarted those dimwits in your league will put a quiet, smug smile on your face, which is what fantasy football is all about.

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Chris Seth
CHRIS SETH

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