NFL writer projects Bills to tumble in AFC East standings in 2024 record prediction

Bleacher Report's Maurice Moton projects the Buffalo Bills to finish third in the AFC East in the 2024 NFL season.

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We’re just a few weeks away from the commencement of the 2024 NFL season, with preseason games now serving as an (albeit underwhelming) appetizer as we prepare for the main course. The ramp-up games serve as an opportunity to glean some additional information about clubs around the league, but they’re largely meaningless; teams tend to avoid putting their schematic wrinkles on tape in the preseason, and thus, the games aren’t necessarily an accurate representation of how a team will look come September. 

Bleacher Report writer Maurice Moton has used the initial preseason games as an opportunity to offer fresh record predictions (though, again, there isn’t too much fresh information provided by the contests). He projects the Buffalo Bills to finish with a record of 9-8, good for third in the AFC East; he expects the Miami Dolphins to finish 11-6 and the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets to go 10-7.

Moton has questions about the feasibility of Buffalo’s revamped receiving crops.

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“As Josh Allen builds connections with his new receivers and stronger ones with familiar faces, he may play a little more hero ball than the Bills would like to see, which could cost them some games,” Moton wrote. “Yet he's talented enough to get hot and go on a run similar to last season. Despite key departures on defense, head coach Sean McDermott maintains a top-tier unit to help out an offense that may struggle in spots.”

The writer’s thoughts about Buffalo haven’t changed since May, as he predicted the team to finish 9-8 earlier this summer.

The Bills losing the AFC East crown after claiming it for four consecutive seasons isn’t an egregious suggestion; the Dolphins are one of the league’s most electric clubs, and the Jets arguably have the NFL’s best roster on paper (we’ll see if everything goes as planned, however). A 9-8 projection seems fallacious, however; the Bills have not finished with fewer than 10 wins in a season since 2018, which was quarterback Josh Allen’s rookie year. 

The team’s roster, sure, has been better in past years than it is now (primarily thanks to the presence of perennial Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs), but Allen has found offensive success with lesser receiving corps in the past; his 2019 unit was headlined by John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Isaiah McKenzie, and the team went 10-6. There were obviously a bevy of factors that went into the final record, but Moton’s suggestion that Allen may struggle due to a lesser receiving corps is demonstrably false—he’s elevated pedestrian units in the past (when he was far from the player he is today).

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And it’s not as though Buffalo’s current weapons corps is bereft of talent. The quarterback already has solid rapports with Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, who both shined down the stretch of the 2023 campaign. The team also added versatile speedster Curtis Samuel (who has had success under offensive coordinator Joe Brady in the past) and rookie Keon Coleman in the offseason, both of whom have flashed at training camp; there’s not a marquee name, but there’s enough talent throughout the offense to keep it humming.

Moton’s suggestion that Allen may be forced to play “hero ball” also seems misguided. The offense adopted an ‘everyone eats’ approach in the offseason; the unit is constructed of a bevy of versatile players who can get open and provide several options for Allen each play, this a departure from the primarily Diggs-focused attack the team has deployed in the recent past. The quarterback should, in theory, be able to spread the ball out as opposed to funneling the offense through one player, something that will ideally take some of the load off his shoulders.

It’s possible that Buffalo’s egalitarian philosophy backfires and Moton’s concerns manifest; however, to suggest that the team will finish with its worst record since Allen’s rookie season due to a receiving corps that doesn’t appear to be that bad seems misguided. Only time will tell if Moton’s questions are warranted; the Bills kick off their 2024 season on September 8 at home against the Arizona Cardinals.

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