Predicting Bills' record in 2024 NFL season based on quarterback matchups

The Buffalo Bills face eight below-average quarterbacks and six above-average ones in 2024. Wins are not a QB stat, but performance can be indicative.

Chris Seth | Aug 31, 2024

Aug 10, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) rolls out and looks to throw the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

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The 2024 NFL season is so close that we can almost forget about the stupidity of the offseason, and now that training camp and the preseason have given us fuller concepts of the Buffalo Bills and their opponents, we can take a more predictive look at the team’s schedule than we could back in March.

A quick and dirty way to evaluate the Bills’ 2024 opponents is by whether or not those teams have quarterbacks who are above or below average. Signal-callers who register as above average are considered an unfavorable matchup, and passers who fall below average are classified as favorable matchups.

This exercise is not a comparison between Josh Allen and each team’s QB. To repeat, this article is not saying that Tua Tagovailoa is an unfavorable matchup compared to Allen, but Tua is an above-average QB in the league. If previous editions of this article are any indication, there are many folks who are going to skip this paragraph or find it completely incomprehensible

Why Just Quarterbacks?

Only looking at the QBs is insufficient for a thorough breakdown of an NFL matchup, but for fans like us, it’s a fast, easy way to consider the challenge each opponent presents. Plus, it largely aligns with the results of serious evaluators, like those guys in Vegas.

Looking at the odds for who Vegas considers the Super Bowl favorites reveals a list of teams that are relatively closely aligned with most Top 10 rankings of NFL QBs. The only team among the top 10 Super Bowl favorites with a QB with a questionable standing as above average is the Detriot Lions and Jared Goff, but by all accounts, the Lions have an upper-echelon offensive roster and an improving defense.

Odds from MGM /

Ben Baldwin’s market-derived tiers are based on teams’ implied win percentage based on the spread for each of their regular season games. The Falcons are the only team on the list of Super Bowl favorites who are not also in the top two tiers. Vegas is pretty consistent on who it thinks the best teams in the league are at this juncture.

Saw a bunch of people posting power rankings so here are some Good and Correct ones pic.twitter.com/TTkKYGUWjE
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) July 29, 2024

Favorable and Unfavorable QB Matchups

The Favorable/Unfavorable designation is relative to the NFL as a whole: a bottom half of the league QB is a favorable matchup, top half is unfavorable. It is neither fair nor productive to compare these regular humans to Josh Allen. These mere mortals are being compared to each other and not to the hurricane-in-shorts that is the Buffalo quarterback. The other columns in the chart below show each QB’s ranking in Bruce Exclusive’s STEW composite, success rate from RBSDM.com, and Rush EPA according to Sumer Sports.

Overall, the Bills face eight favorable QB matchups, six unfavorable, and three unknown. According to the average of the selected statistics from last year, Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers is the toughest QB matchup for the Bills in 2024 with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes not far behind. It’s not rocket science.

Even if it’s not complicated, the system is indicative. The Bills have won 74.2% of their favorable matchups in the last three years. The Bills have still been exceptional against unfavorable QBs but not quite as good with a 70.6% win rate. They have split even in their two previous unknown matchups.

AFC East Opponent QBs

Since the Bills will face off six times against their AFC East foes, let’s look a little closer at those QBs.

Tua Tagovailoa

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Tagovailoa had the fastest average time to throw in the NFL in 2023 at 2.36 seconds. The only time quicker than that in the Next Gen Stats era (2018-2023) was Ben Roethlisberger’s 2.3 in 2020. Despite that lightning-fast work, he still manages to get the ball downfield because of the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle along with the play design of Mike McDaniel. Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating last year, but he has yet to show a consistent ability to play above the scheme or reliably create in unsettled situations. In 2023, he was one of the most ineffective QBs when it came to running, ranking 36th out of 36 QBs in Rush EPA at -39.1.

His skills are expertly highlighted by McDaniel, but his limitations mean his surroundings have to be close to perfect for him to succeed.

Jacoby Brissett

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Brissett has established himself as a reliable and experienced quarterback, though his statistics place him more in the middle tier of NFL passers. In the 2022 season, Brissett had a passer rating of 88.9, which reflects an ability to manage games without significant errors. He completed 64% of his passes for 2,608 yards and threw for 12 touchdowns with six interceptions over 11 starts. He’s a solid quarterback and good bridge to the Drake Maye era, but he does not have the talent to raise this Patriots’ offense to a playoff caliber.

Aaron Rodgers

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Rodgers’ career numbers say he has been one of the greatest statistical QBs in NFL history. At age 40, his legacy might be his strongest selling point though. There is no way to tell how Rodgers will perform at his age, coming off a major Achilles injury. Rodgers is also unpredictable in terms of commitment and mindset. The Jets could be getting a player who was a back-to-back MVP just two years ago, or…they could be dealing with a middle-aged man leaning toward an atypical lifestyle with wildly divergent interests, ranging all the way to being Vice President-curious, which is a real sentence you just read that is not hyperbolic. What a time to be alive.

In a recent episode, Bill Simmons said the Jets are the safest bet in the AFC East, which is indeed a statement that a human could make by stringing words together. Now watch Rodgers light the NFL on fire, but can anyone say that’s a safe bet?

Record Prediction

Based on their previous history against favorable and unfavorable QBs, the Bills might surprise many pundits with their final record. There are many questions about the team in Orchard Park because of all the changes they’ve undergone this offseason, but If they follow their three-year history, they’d go 6-2 against favorable quarterbacks, 4-2 versus unfavorable ones, and 2-1 or 1-2 facing the unknowns. That leads to an 11 or 12-win team, and that record would put them in contention for a fifth straight division crown and in the playoffs. With Josh Allen at the helm, all the Bills really need is a chance to dance, regardless of the opposing quarterback.

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