Bills face disastrous outcome in ESPN's 2024 NFL season simulation

ESPN recently highlighted a simulation of the 2024 NFL season that had problematic consequences for the Buffalo Bills.

Anthony Miller | Sep 2, 2024

Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

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In a world where analytics can illustrate complex data and be used to help predict different outcomes of what can happen in the future, the Buffalo Bills have found themselves on the wrong side of the numbers.

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder published an article Monday sharing the details of an analytics-based simulation of the 2024 NFL season. ESPN's Football Power Index ran 20,000 different simulations of the upcoming campaign, with each obviously producing its own unique results. Walder wrote about simulation No. 515, one that would result in a long, cold autumn in Western New York if it were to manifest.

This simulation had the Bills struggling massively, posting their worst record since Josh Allen's rookie season (a 2018 campaign in which the team finished 6-10).

"It turned out the Buffalo Bills needed a No. 1 receiver after all," Walder wrote. "Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo took a more run-heavy approach in this season simulation, but it resulted in the offense taking a step back and quarterback Josh Allen having his worst statistical season since the early parts of his career. The defense couldn't make up the gap, either, resulting in a disastrous 7-10 playoff-less season for a team that was considered a Super Bowl contender entering the season."

Buffalo's 7-10 record was tied for the AFC's fourth-worst and prompted the team to finish third in the AFC East. Looking on the bright side: the Bills' first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft would be between eighth and 11th overall if this simulation were to manifest.

Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

This scenario would be a disaster for Buffalo, one that likely would spark severe consequences. Playing along with this situation, a 7-10 season could cost the coaching staff their jobs, including head coach Sean McDermott. There's a slim chance McDermott has built up enough goodwill over the recent past to survive a double-digit loss season, but that's unlikely given the team's repeated premature postseason exits in recent years.

The roster, in this scenario, might see some offseason overhaul with the focus being on getting Allen a capable No. 1 receiver and spending the money and draft capital to make it happen. As for Allen himself, his job wouldn't be affected by a poor record; the team would instead make a concerted effort to surround him with more general talent.

Coming back to reality, it's unlikely the Bills would take that big of a step back this season even though the team, on paper, is not as stout as it's been in past years. There are questions about the receiving corps and how the defense will be without the injured Matt Milano and current free agent Micah Hyde, but the concerns don't appear to be significant enough to prompt a seven-win season.

Buffalo should be playoff contenders this fall, and anything short of that would be a catastrophic nightmare that would change the course of the franchise's future.

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