AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Numbers tell truth about Bills entering Week 7

The Buffalo Bills got back to winning and the Kansas City Chiefs remained undefeated. How have the AFC Analytical Power Rankings responded?

Ronnie Eastham | 3 Hours Ago

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Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season is in the books, and the AFC has six teams with winning records, all of whom reside in the top six of our power rankings. How do they -- and the rest of the conference -- stack up against one another? Here are our AFC Analytical Power Rankings entering Week 7.

For some context on how I derived these rankings, I want to make sure you understand I did not simply say this team or that team is better than another. I took nine metrics, ranging from DVOA rankings to EPA per-play rankings, offensive and defensive success rates, turnover and point differentials, win/loss records, and assigned values, to create one singular value for each team.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

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What happened in Duval Cunty? The Jaguars were a playoff team two years ago and were supposed to return to form this season, but the 2024 version of the team couldn't be further from that. Is head coach Doug Pederson's job in jeopardy? Is quarterback Trevor Lawrence truly a franchise guy? The Jags don't have much going for them, ranking in the 20s and 30s in every category used for these rankings, including dead last in defensive EPA per play and DVOA.

15. New England Patriots (1-5)

The New England Patriots began the Drake Maye era with his first career start last week. He performed relatively well, completing 20 of 33 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns. He even led the team in rushing yards with 38 but also threw two picks. The only category the Patriots rank in the top 20 is turnover differential (18th), and while there's hope for future years, New England fans are likely wishing they could simulate the rest of the 2024 campaign.

14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)

The Raiders are in disarray, and their season continues to deteriorate. They've traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets, isolating their sole star, Maxx Crosby, on a deserted island. The question arises: will he be the next to depart, and is his desire to stay in Las Vegas still intact? Surprisingly, the Raiders rank fourth in offensive success rate and 17th in offensive EPA per play, but no better than 25th in any other category.

13. Cleveland Browns (1-5)

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Akin to the Raiders, the Browns threw in the towel on the 2024 season and traded their star receiver Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills. How much longer will the Browns continue to ride with Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback? They might get Nick Chubb back soon, but will it matter much? The Browns are playing for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Will they use it to replace Watson?

12. Miami Dolphins (1-3)

The positive aspect is that the Dolphins are currently second in the AFC East; however, the downside is they have scored only 60 points over five games. The team needs Tua Tagovailoa to return, but there's a concern it may be too late by the time he's back. The Dolphins' offense is struggling, as evidenced by their rankings: 32nd in offensive EPA per play and 31st in both offensive success rate and DVOA.

11. Tennessee Titans (1-4)

At least the Titans can play some defense, but their offense is atrocious, where they rank 27th in EPA per play and 30th in offensive success rate. Their offensive DVOA isn't much better, ranking 28th in the league, and they are 31st in turnover differential average. I'm not sure Will Levis is the only problem there, either, but hey, at least they've scored more than the Dolphins.

10. New York Jets (2-4)

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The New York Jets lost a crusher to Buffalo on Monday Night Football despite playing well. In the end, it was Rodgers throwing a game-ending interception (though wideout Mike Williams didn't offer much help). The Jets rank 21st in offensive EPA and DVOA and come in at 20th in offensive success rate. Even the defense is in the middle of the pack in most categories. Will the addition of Davante Adams remedy these numbers and get the Jets rolling, or is it too late for them at this point?

9. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

The Bengals are one of just two teams that crack the top ten despite having a losing record. Cincinnati ranks in the top ten in all offensive categories, including No. 5 in EPA per play. The problem is that its defense has been abysmal, ranking 26th and 31st in defensive EPA per play and success rate, respectively. Statistically, Joe Burrow is having a fantastic season, ranking top five in the league in passing yards, completion rate, and touchdowns, all with only two interceptions on the season. If the Bengals were winning, he'd be front and center in MVP talks.

8. Denver Broncos (3-3)

The Broncos are mired in mediocrity this season and will finish somewhere around .500. The offense is so bad and is the reason they won't be a player this season. Led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, the Broncos' offense ranks 26th and 28th in EPA per play and success rate, respectively. The defense has been stellar and ranks top five in EPA per play and success rate. The verdict is still out on Nix, but he lacks the weapons to rely on, and the statistics support this.

7. Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

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The Colts are an oddity. In most cases, if a team's EPA per play is low, the success rate is, as well. However, in the case of the Colts, they rank 12th in offensive EPA per play, but only 22nd in success rate. The same appears on the defensive side, where they rank 21st in EPA per play but ninth in success rate. The Colts are good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but if they don't find some consistency, they will be a one-and-done. It will also be interesting to see what happens when quarterback Anthony Richardson returns from injury.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)

The Chargers might be the worst team with a winning record this season, and this ranking proves that. They are the lowest-ranked team with an above .500 record. They will benefit from playing the Broncos and Raiders this year. Their three wins have come against the Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers, and the schedule is favorable, with their next five opponents all having a losing record.

5. Houston Texans (5-1)

The Texans dismantled the Patriots, 41-21, last week and continued to roll. If you didn't know better, you'd think it was the offense that was their reason for winning. C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense is loaded on paper, but the advanced analytics tell a different story; the Houston offense ranks 15th in EPA play, 25th in success rate and 17th in DVOA. However, the defense has been terrific, ranking top ten in all defensive categories, including second in DVOA.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

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The Steelers are similar to the Texans, ranking below average in all offensive categories; however, their defense has been outstanding, ranking fifth in EPA per play and tenth in DVOA. Only the Bills have a larger point differential in the AFC and only the Chiefs have allowed fewer points. One key factor in the Steelers' four wins is turnovers. They rank fifth in the league in turnover differential average.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)

The Chiefs have steadily been climbing these rankings for the last few weeks now, but as the AFC's only undefeated team, I know many think Kansas City should be No. 1. The Chiefs are one of only two teams with a winning record whose turnover differential isn't ranked 13th or better; they sit 27th in this category and only the Eagles (30th) are worse. Kansas City's defense is the only reason the Chiefs have avoided the losing column.

2. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

After an 0-2 start, the Ravens have surged with four consecutive wins, and Lamar Jackson has positioned himself as a contender for what could be his third league MVP. The Ravens' offense has performed remarkably, ranking first in DVOA and second in both EPA per play and success rate. Surprisingly, the defense hasn't been as dominant, but the Ravens are a major Super Bowl contender.

1. Buffalo Bills (4-2)

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Here we are at No. 1 and once again, the Bills hold the top spot still. Since we started these rankings after Week 2, the Bills have held the top spot every week. I'm sure people will question the validity but as I've stated many times, these rankings are not based on subjective opinion, but strictly on several advanced analytics. The thing separating the Bills from the Ravens is defense. Buffalo ranks higher than the Ravens in all defensive categories and significantly higher in turnover differential average, where the Bills rank third in the league. And now they've added wide receiver Amari Cooper to the mix.

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