How Bills can clinch AFC East title in the coming weeks

Here's how the Buffalo Bills can clinch their fifth-consecutive AFC East title in the coming weeks.

Kyle Silagyi | 11 Hours Ago

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The AFC East was a division of much national interest in the leadup to the 2024 NFL season, and for good reason; the Buffalo Bills, who have ruled over the division à la a benevolent royal for the last four years, (allegedly) regressed in the offseason, with pundits feeling as though the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets and dynamic Miami Dolphins could pose a significant threat for the crown.

Fast forward to Week 9, and the AFC East hasn’t been all that competitive. Buffalo currently boasts a significant lead with a 6-2 record, the next closest team in the standings being the 2-5 Dolphins. New York, who is 2-6 through eight contests, finds itself in last place behind even the rebuilding New England Patriots, who were widely considered a distant fourth in the division entering the new campaign.

Even momentarily taking records out of the equation, the Bills are currently the AFC East’s only club with even tolerable vibes. Miami may see its fortunes improve as the season progresses thanks to the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but this is a club whose play has generally deteriorated late in past seasons. The Patriots may steal a few wins to close out the year, but they’re not a talented enough team to make a run. The Jets are the Jets.

It once looked as though the AFC East wouldn’t be decided until the final weeks of the season, but it now looks as though it could be wrapped up by Thanksgiving. ESPN reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques recently took to Twitter to look at Buffalo’s division-clinching scenarios in the near future, with Week 12 being a realistic target date.

Per @ESPNStatsInfo, since division realignment in 02, 3 teams have clinched their divisions in Week 12: 09 Colts, 07 Patriots, 04 Eagles

All 3 lost the Super Bowl in those seasons

BUF could clinch AFC East in Wk 12 if they're 9-2, MIA is 3-8/2-9, NYJ is 2-9 & NE is 2-10/3-9
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) October 30, 2024

Per Louis-Jacques, the Bills can clinch the division in Week 12 if they are 9-2, the Dolphins are either 3-8 or 2-9, the Jets are 2-9, and the Patriots are either 2-10 or 3-9. This isn’t a necessarily unthinkable scenario; Buffalo has a Week 12 bye but plays Miami, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Kansas City Chiefs (who it has defeated in its last three regular-season matchups) in the leadup. The Dolphins play the Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, and Patriots, New York plays the Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, and Colts, and New England plays the Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, Rams, and Dolphins.

Is this a likely outcome? Not necessarily, but then again, clinching a division title in Week 12 is an incredibly rare feat; according to Louis-Jacques, only three teams have done so since 2002.

And to only further underscore Buffalo’s early-season lead, it has the opportunity to clinch the AFC East even earlier than Week 12; Louis-Jacques writes that the Bills can win their fifth-straight division crown if they win each of their games through Week 11 while the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots lose all of their contests through that date. He notes that there is only a 0.2% chance of this happening.

The Bills could also clinch in Week 11 if it’s

BUF 9-2
MIA 2-8
NYJ 2-9
NE 2-9

There’s only a 0.2% of this happening, per ESPN Analytics https://t.co/5JHr2B0T6S
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) October 30, 2024

Regardless of when Buffalo ultimately clinches the division, it looks as though it’s well on its way to doing so. It can strengthen its already sizeable lead this weekend when it hosts Miami in a Week 9 clash.

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