2024 AFC Playoff Race: Bills close in on No. 1 seed entering Week 12

The Buffalo Bills' Week 11 win over the Kansas City Chiefs brought them a little closer to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Ronnie Eastham | Nov 21, 2024

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With seven weeks remaining in the 2024 regular season, there is a lot of football still to play. When the new campaign began, no one expected the Denver Broncos to be battling for a Wild Card spot, and certainly, no one could have guessed the AFC West might send three teams to the playoffs. We were also told this would be a rebuilding year for the Buffalo Bills, but here we are, with them constructing their best start to a season since 1992.

With that, here's a look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 12.

2024 NFL Playoffs: In the Hunt

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their first loss of the season, are still in a good spot and completely control their own destiny. They have some tough opponents coming up with the Chargers, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. The Chiefs have their flaws and can be beaten. They've managed to pull out wins despite mistakes, but the turnovers are a big issue, ranking toward the bottom of the league in turnover differential.

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

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After the Bills' Week 11 win over the Chiefs, they are a half-game behind Kansas City for the top playoff seed, but with seven weeks still to play, everything is up in the air. Buffalo is heading into a much-needed bye week and has an opportunity to get some key players healthy, including All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, who could be in line to return from an offseason bicep tear sooner rather than later. The Bills' next three opponents are the 49ers, Rams, and Lions.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

The Steelers have quietly piled up the wins and now sit two games over the Ravens in the AFC North. Many questioned Mike Tomlin when he chose to make the switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson despite winning, but so far, it looks like it was the right move. Can the Steelers keep stacking wins with the Bengals and Ravens in their division? Time will tell, but they already have a solid lead.

4. Houston Texans (7-4)

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The Texans lost back-to-back games but grabbed their seventh win of the season last week, defeating the lowly Cowboys. Houston has a two-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South and doesn't appear to be in danger of losing the division. Even if the Colts can keep winning, they've already lost two to the Texans. The AFC South is Houston's to win, and it's almost guaranteed a spot in the top four of the playoffs.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

The Chargers could be a threat to the Chiefs in the AFC West. They lost by seven in the first meeting and round two is in three weeks. Los Angeles has some tough games though, facing the Ravens and Falcons in the next two weeks. It closes the season against the Patriots and Raiders, two games they should win easily, but you know what they say, this is a week-to-week league.

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

It is somewhat surprising to find the Ravens in the sixth spot. Baltimore has gone 2-2 over its last four games, despite previously seeming like the Super Bowl favorites. Its offense is outstanding, yet its defense has become a liability. Can Lamar Jackson and the offense continue carrying this team to a potential division title?

7. Denver Broncos (6-5)

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Bo Nix has been on fire, and that's a bad thing for the AFC. If he continues to ascend, the Broncos' defense is legit, and Denver could make some noise as the conference moves closer to the playoffs. Their shot at the division is likely past, but once you get into postseason play, anything can happen, regardless of how the regular season played out.

2024 NFL Playoffs: On the Outside

As it stands, the Colts are only a game out of the seventh seed and play only two teams with winning records down the stretch (the Broncos and Lions). The other four are the Patriots, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars; these are four very winnable games, but the Broncos matchup will have massive playoff implications.

The only other two teams that still have a legitimate shot are the Dolphins and Cincinnati. However, the Bengals were handed their seventh loss this past week, so it's an uphill battle. The Dolphins' best bet to reach the playoffs is as a Wild Card given Buffalo's divisional dominance. They've won two in a row now, but still have games coming up against the Packers and Texans. They also have the 49ers, and despite their record, San Francisco is still a talented team.