AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Do Bills or Chiefs top conference ahead of Week 11?

We've turned to advanced analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.

Ronnie Eastham | Nov 13, 2024

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Reviewing advanced analytics isn't always the easiest task; for example, what exactly are DVOA or EPA? We've known for nearly as long as we've been NFL fans what total yardage is, or average yards per carry. These are simple to understand, yet they don't tell the complete picture of how good or bad a team is. For example, you might have a poor team against the pass, so opponents attack them through the air, and naturally, this can skew that defense's rushing numbers as a result, making it look like they are good run-defenders, when in reality they may not be.

It's also interesting that while we may not agree with the order of the top seven teams, the advanced analytics show they're are also the seven teams with the best records in the AFC. There can certainly be some debate about whether the Kansas City Chiefs belong where they are currently ranked, but based on the analytics, they are right where they belong. You'll see where they rank later in this article, but with that, here's how the AFC stacks up according to analytics entering Week 11.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

Offensive DVOA

Defensive DVOA

Offensive EPA

Defensive EPA

Offensive Success Rate

Defensive Success Rate

Turnover Differential Average

Points Differential Average

Win/Loss Record

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

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The Raiders dropped from 15 to 16 this week, finally taking over the lowest spot. It's not surprising given their ongoing struggles. This team's best ranking is 19th in defensive EPA while ranking 30th or lower in four of our metrics. This team is well on its way to a top-five pick in next year's NFL Draft.

15. New England Patriots (3-7)

The Patriots occupied the lowest rank in our AFC rankings for several weeks but finally climbed up one spot. I'm not sure if they are getting better, or if the Raiders are that bad; it's a mix of the two. Since Drake Maye took over at quarterback, New England has gotten somewhat better play at the position. Maye is still prone to rookie mistakes, but the Patriots have themselves a good one. They rank low-to-mid-20s in all but two categories, where they rank 29th and 30th in offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, respectively.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

The Jaguars are getting closer and closer to falling behind the Patriots in our analytical power rankings, which is mind-blowing. Few would argue that the Patriots are a more talented team, yet here we were. Is it coaching, or an issue with player execution? It's not an offensive problem though, and the analytics prove that. The Jaguars' offense ranks 14th in EPA and 15th in success rate. The problem is the defense, where they are 32nd in EPA and 31st in DVOA.

13. Cleveland Browns (2-7)

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You may think the Browns should have moved Myles Garrett at the trade deadline since they are going nowhere this season, but despite their poor record, the defense is solid, ranking 13th in EPA and fourth in success rate. The Browns have an offensive problem, most of which can be found at the quarterback position. The Browns' offense is putrid, ranking 30th in EPA, 32nd in success rate, and 32nd in DVOA.

12. Tennessee Titans (2-7)

The Titans are all in on a 2025 rebuild. They traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs, and they might be in the market for a new quarterback, too. Can Will Levis learn he's not Josh Allen and stop trying to be the store-brand version of the Buffalo quarterback? That's the million-dollar question and one that only the coaches can answer. The analytics still indicate the Titans' defense is solid, but the offense is abysmal, ranking 31st in EPA, 24th in success rate, and 27th in DVOA.

11. Miami Dolphins (3-6)

The Dolphins finally ended their losing streak in Week 10, picking up a much-needed win against the Rams, who are trying to climb out of a hole, as well. Miami is still 4.5 games behind the Bills and have already been swept by them, so it would be nothing short of a miracle to get back into the division race. Still, there is hope for the playoffs despite a few teams currently ahead of them. The analytics are tougher to read for this team because the offense was so bad without Tua Tagovailoa, but now he's back and the offense is far more efficient. This shows in the numbers too, where they rank a decent 18th in offensive success, but only 27th in EPA.

10. Indianapolis Colts (4-6)

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Just a few weeks ago, the Colts were 4-3 and in a good spot. After a terrible performance from sophomore Anthony Richardson against the Texans in a 23-20 loss, they switched starting quarterbacks, electing to go with wily veteran Joe Flacco. The change hasn't helped, as he's lost both starts and Indianapolis is now amidst a three-game losing streak. Is this season over for the Colts? Maybe not, but if Richardson is the future of this franchise, it makes no sense to continue with Flacco. The Colts don't do anything great, ranking middle of the pack in all but offensive success, where they are 31st in the league.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

If Cincinnati had defeated the Ravens in Week 10, their season would have looked completely different. Instead, most have written this team off now, given they are in a division with the Ravens and Steelers, two teams that currently rank in the top five of our power rankings. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase were fantastic and the Bengals offense has been excellent, ranking fifth in EPA, 11th in success rate, and ninth in DVOA. The team's overall ranking suffers due to their defensive performance and losses. They rank no higher than 27th in any defensive category.

8. New York Jets (3-7)

We discussed the fall of the offseason Super Bowl champs in a recent article. This is one of the instances where their play on the field looks much worse than the numbers indicate. However, the Jets have played a few good games, but lack any consistency at all, and that is the picture the analytics paint. Their ranks are all over the place; for example, they rank eighth in defensive success rate, but only 16th in defensive EPA. Ranking only 22nd in turnover differential average doesn't help the win/loss record, either.

7. Denver Broncos (5-5)

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If you are a Broncos fan, I'm sure the sting of last week's loss is still very fresh. The Broncos remain in contention for the playoffs and will have another opportunity to face the Chiefs in Week 17. However, the schedule until then isn't particularly easy with matchups against the Falcons, Chargers, and Bengals. The Broncos calling card continues to be their defense, ranking third in EPA, fifth in success rate, and sixth in DVOA.

6. Houston Texans (6-4)

The Texans have lost two straight now, but lucky for them, no one in their division won this past week, and only the Titans don't have at least two consecutive losses. The Texans don't have anything to worry about. They are just about as much of a lock to win the AFC South as the Bills are to win the AFC East. Their offense hasn't been the same without Nico Collins, but he should return soon. The defense has been fantastic, ranking second in both success rate and DVOA.

5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

The Ravens escaped a loss to the Bengals and improved to 7-3, but it feels like their defense is going to be the fall of this team, surprisingly ranking only 26th in EPA and middle of the pack in both success rate and DVOA. The offense is extraordinary though, ranking second in success rate, and first in both EPA and DVOA.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

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The Chiefs managed to narrowly win again in Week 10, remaining unbeaten. However, the win didn't do much for their ranking, dropping from third last week to fourth this week. Kansas City continues to find ways to pull it out in the end, but the numbers don't show an overly dominant team. They rank first in offensive success rate, but only 15th in defensive EPA and 18th in defensive success rate. Another metric that's hurting them is their turnover differential average, ranking 24th in the category.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

The Steelers were number two last week, falling one spot after defeating the Commanders 28-27. Pittsburgh is riding a four-game winning streak and hasn't lost a game since Russell Wilson took over. Pittsburgh's defense was a big reason they ranked in the top 10 in the early weeks of our rankings; however, the offensive numbers have improved and landed them in the top five for the last few weeks. They rank 13th in EPA, 17th in success rate, and 18th in DVOA. Couple these with ranking top 10 in defensive EPA and DVOA, along with second in turnover differential average, and you can see why they rank as highly as they do.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

It was surprising to see the Chargers climb to the number two spot this week after slotting in at number four last week, but the numbers don't lie. They rank very well on the defensive side, where they are second in EPA, sixth in success rate, and eighth in DVOA. Add to this their ranking of second in turnover differential average and fifth in scoring differential average, and you can understand how they've climbed to the number two spot.

1. Buffalo Bills (8-2)

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We started our analytical power rankings after Week 2 of the season. That's nine consecutive weeks the Bills have held the top spot in the conference. When combined league-wide, they are second only to the Detroit Lions. The Bills rank in the top 10 in every category except for defensive success rate, where they are currently placed at No. 13. They are top three in three categories: third in offensive EPA, second in point differential average, and first in turnover differential average. The question is will they hold this spot after their imminent four-game gauntlet?

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