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AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Playoff contenders rising heading into Week 9

We've turned to advanced analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering NFL Week 9.

Ronnie Eastham

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The Buffalo Bills dominated the Seattle Seahawks on the road in a Week 8 showdown, and the Kansas City Chiefs barely defeated the Las Vegas Raiders. The Baltimore Ravens were shocked by Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned to action, but it didn't matter in the win/loss column. The AFC East looks like it's a done deal, too, with Buffalo holding a commanding lead. We are just about halfway through the NFL season, and the true playoff contenders are beginning to rise to the top.

With that, here's how the AFC stacks up analytically entering Week 9.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

  • Defensive DVOA
  • Defensive EPA
  • Offensive Success Rate
  • Defensive Success Rate
  • Turnover Differential Average
  • Points Differential Average
  • Win/Loss Record

16. New England Patriots (2-6)

Drake May
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Since the Patriots switched to Drake Maye, they have averaged over 20 points per game, compared to just 12.6 in the five prior games. New England earned only its second win of the season in Week 8, defeating the lowly New York Jets, 25 - 22. Make no mistake, despite the win and the higher points per game average, the Patriots are still a bad team, ranking in the bottom four in offensive EPA, success rate, DVOA, and defensive EPA and DVOA.

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

The Raiders are in a downward spiral; despite only losing to the Chiefs by a touchdown, they may be looking at their third starting quarterback this season if they elect to go with the young Desmond Ridder, or it could be rookie Carter Bradley. The Raiders' defense is average at best, ranking 15th and 17th in defensive success rate and EPA, respectively. At this point, they might as well go with the rookie and see what they have in him.

Related: Bills QB Josh Allen for NFL MVP? ESPN analyst gives his thoughts

14. Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Here is another team that recently made a move at the quarterback position, although forced due to injury. Jameis Winston stepped in this week and did nothing other than throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, taking down the once-mighty Ravens. The Browns rank eighth in defensive success rate, but bottom three in offensive EPA and success rate. Can Winston continue to add a spark to their offense?

13. Miami Dolphins (2-5)

Tua Tagovailo
Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup this week, and while their offense was far better than we've seen since his Week 2 concussion, the result was the same, another loss. What is a bit surprising is the Dolphins' defense has fared well, ranking fifth in defensive success rate and ninth in EPA; however, they still allowed 28 points to the Cardinals in a losing effort.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

I'm still trying to understand what happened to the Jaguars, and I think at this point, this is who they are: a very bad defensive team. Their best defensive rank is 19th in success rate, but they are 31st in EPA and 32nd in DVOA. They also suffered a litany of injuries against the Packers.

11. Tennessee Titans (1-6)

The one thing the Titans had going for them was their defense. They still rank highly in this area according to the advanced analytics, yet they've given up 86 combined points over the last two games to the Bills and Lions, two of the league's best. Still, Tennessee ranks first in defensive success rate, but they've slipped to 12th in defensive EPA and ninth in DVOA.

10. New York Jets (2-6)

Aaron Rodger
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

How the Jets are in the top 10 is baffling. This has been a joke of a franchise for some time now and Aaron Rodgers was supposed to fix all of that, but even with the addition of Davante Adams, the Jets continue to Jet. The Jets were taunted as a defensive power in the league but rank only 11th in success rate, 16th in EPA, and 20th in DVOA. The offense isn't much better either, where their highest rank is success rate at 18th.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)

Had the Bengals defeated the Eagles to reach a 4-4 record, my confidence in the team's ability to turn their season around would have been greater. However, they were thoroughly outplayed by Philadelphia. The Bengals' defense remains the biggest issue, ranking 25th in EPA, 30th in success rate, and 25th in DVOA.

Related: Two under-appreciated Bills earn spots on ESPN's 'All-Film Team'

8. Indianapolis Colts (4-4)

Well, the AFC is going through a turnstile at the quarterback position and the Colts now join the list of teams changing starters. The Colts announced Joe Flacco will be the starting quarterback next week after Anthony Richardson decided he needed a break and pulled himself out for a play, citing he was too tired. I'm sure that sat well with his teammates. Regardless, Flacco is the better quarterback at this juncture, and for an offense that ranks 24th in success rate, he might be the shot in the arm they need.

7. Houston Texans (6-2)

CJ Strou
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston doesn't seem to be the same team without Nico Collins, who may return soon, but now they will be without Stefon Diggs for the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL against the Colts. The Texans' offense has been less than stellar, ranking no better than 18th in any offensive metrics. Their defense remains one of the best though, ranking second in DVOA.

6. Denver Broncos (5-3)

If you had told me the Broncos would be 5-3 at this point with Bo Nix, I probably would not have believed you. Nothing against Nix, but he hasn't played particularly well and they don't have a lot of offensive weapons, which shows in the metrics, ranking 24th in DVOA and 25th in EPA. The defense is carrying this team right now; they rank top five in EPA, success rate, and DVOA.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

The Chargers, traditionally not recognized for their defense, have emerged as a formidable defensive team in 2024. They are ranked fourth in EPA, eighth in DVOA, and ninth in success rate. Surprisingly, their offensive ranking is quite low, despite having Justin Herbert, who is considered by many to be a top-10 quarterback.

4. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)

Lamar Jackso
Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ravens looked like the surefire AFC Super Bowl representative over the last few weeks, but that all came crashing down with a shocking loss to the Cleveland Browns, led by Jameis Winston. The Ravens' defense has not been anywhere close to the unit we saw in 2023. They rank a very poor 26th in defensive EPA, 16th in success rate, and 18th in DVOA. The offense has been fantastic but they showed if they make any mistakes, the defense can't make up for it.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

The Steelers are one of the bigger surprises this season and just as surprising is this is another team that changed quarterbacks, yet they were winning games before making the switch. That said, new starting passer Russell Wilson seems to have given their offense a little more spark than what Justin Fields did. This team is an odd one to figure out though, they rank very well in defensive EPA at fifth, but only 13th in defensive success rate. The same is true of the offense, where they rank 12th in EPA but only 19th in success rate.

Related: What Bills HC Sean McDermott said about Terrel Bernard's injury entering Week 9

2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

The Chiefs continue to find ways to win, but Patrick Mahomes had a much better stat line than what we've seen lately from him. Still, the Chiefs remain undefeated, and most say their defense is carrying the team; however, similar to what we see with the Steelers, the Chiefs rank fourth in defensive DVOA, but only 18th in success rate. You might be surprised to hear that Kansas City is number one in offensive success rate.

1. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

Josh Alle
Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Can the Buffalo Bills hold the top spot all season? They've been number one since we started this weekly power poll and have sat in the top spot every week since. The Bills rank top ten in seven of the eight metrics we weigh, and top five in four of those, including second in turnover differential average, point differential average, and offensive DVOA.

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Ronnie Eastham
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