AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Bills cement status as prime contender vs. Chiefs

We've turned to analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering Week 12.

Ronnie Eastham | 2 Hours Ago

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Week 11 offered an incredible slate of football with three marquee matchups: the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders on Thursday Night followed by the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. The Steelers' and Eagles' wins increased their lead in their respective divisions. In the AFC, three of the four divisions are separated by two or fewer games, whereas the AFC East is dominated by the Bills, who boast a 4.5-game lead over the Dolphins.

Speaking of the Dolphins, they've won back-to-back games while trying to hold on to what little hope they have of getting back into the division race. However, Buffalo's big 30-21 win over the Chiefs shows the ability of the Bills and how unlikely Miami is to catch them. Buffalo is just two wins away from securing the division crown and could accomplish this without playing another division game. It was a crazy week in the NFL; with that, here are the AFC Analytical Power rankings entering Week 12.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

Offensive DVOA

Defensive DVOA

Offensive EPA

Defensive EPA

Offensive Success Rate

Defensive Success Rate

Turnover Differential Average

Points Differential Average

Win/Loss Record

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)

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All 32 teams are analyzed when putting together these rankings each week, so if you're curious who the absolute dead last team is, look no further than the Carolina Panthers. However, the Raiders aren't far behind and could wind up in that spot if the losses continue piling up. Las Vegas' best rank is in defensive EPA, where they rank 23rd. The problem is they rank 29th or worse in offensive EPA, turnover differential average, point differential average, and offensive DVOA.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)

Jacksonville moved down one spot from last week, and when you get humiliated 52-6 (albeit by one of the best teams in football), that will tend to happen. At this point, it's unlikely Doug Pederson will retain his job, and he may not make it through the year. The Jaguars' biggest issue is their defense, ranking 27th or worse in all three defensive categories.

14. New England Patriots (3-8)

New England managed to slide up one spot this week, swapping places with the Jaguars. It's really nothing that the Patriots did to move up, as much as it was what the Jaguars did against the Lions. The Patriots aren't a very good team; however, since starting Drake Maye, they are far more competitive. Still, they rank 19th in defensive success rate, but anywhere from 21st to 30th in the other seven categories.

13. Cleveland Browns (2-8)

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The Cleveland Browns switched starting quarterbacks a few weeks ago and immediately defeated the Baltimore Ravens; however, the Browns have come back to reality since then and are stacking losses. Even with Jameis Winston, the offense is still terrible, ranking 29th in offensive EPA, and 32nd in both offensive success rate and DVOA.

12. Tennessee Titans (2-8)

As you might expect, the teams at the bottom of any ranking simply aren't going to be good football teams. However, the AFC is especially bad. Nine AFC teams occupy the league's bottom 13 slots in our rankings. The Tennessee Titans are among them; they rank very well defensively, placing no worse than 11th in the three defensive categories, but the offense is putrid. They rank no better than 28th in any offensive category and 30th in turnover differential.

11. Miami Dolphins (4-6)

The Dolphins, despite winning back-to-back games, did not move up or down from last week. It could be that those two wins came against the Rams and Raiders. The Rams rank 15th in our overall rankings, but we already talked about how bad the Raiders are, so no need to beat that dead horse. The Dolphins' offensive ranks have improved since the return of Tua Tagovailoa, but it hasn't been enough to move up the rankings. Their best rank is 14th in defensive EPA, but even with Tagovailoa, they still rank only 24th in offensive EPA and 25th in DVOA. Still, if they keep stacking wins, they'll likely start climbing the ranks.

10. Indianapolis Colts (5-6)

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The Colts picked up a much-needed win to stay relatively close to the Texans last week; however, being swept by Houston will not help their cause. The most likely scenario for the playoffs is a Wild Card. They have a solid defense going for them, ranking 10th and 13th in defensive EPA and success rate, respectively. Plus, Anthony Richardson played well, and if he can continue that trend, the Colts might be in it late in the season.

9. New York Jets (3-8)

The Jets are everyone's favorite punching bag this season, right next to the Dallas Cowboys. The Jets were soaring this past offseason, well on their way to a Super Bowl, but the Jet imploded before it ever got off the ground. First, they fired their head coach and now said goodbye to their general manager. This whole Aaron Rodgers debacle has set the team back years, but if you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes. They rank ninth in defensive success rate, but no better than 14th in any other category.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

The Bengals desperately needed to beat the Chargers, and despite a valiant effort to do so, they ultimately dropped their seventh game of the year. They aren't out of it yet, but one more loss and it becomes extremely bleak; two more, and you can say goodbye to 2024 and hello to the 2025 offseason. Indeed, an 8-9 record would likely not suffice for postseason qualification. The Bengals' offense is impressive, securing the seventh spot in both offensive EPA and DVOA rankings.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

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The Chargers looked unstoppable during the first half against the Bengals but had to hang on for dear life in the second half. They still won and improved to 7-3, only two games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. It's interesting with the Chargers because they rank poorly in success rate, 29th offensively and 23rd defensively. However, their DVOA ranks aren't bad, as they rank 13th in offense and 10th defensively.

6. Houston Texans (7-4)

After back-to-back losses, the Texans got back to winning, which apparently isn't hard to do against the Cowboys. Getting Nico Collins back is a big boost to an offense that has been struggling, ranking 21st in EPA, 30th in success rate, and 24th in DVOA. The defense is carrying this team right now, ranking second in success rate and third in DVOA.

5. Denver Broncos (6-5)

This is the highest the Broncos have ranked this season. After getting trounced by the Ravens in Week 9, they were a blocked field goal away from defeating the Chiefs and followed that up with a dominant performance in a win against the Falcons. The Broncos rank 20th in both offensive EPA and success rate, but Bo Nix has been excellent lately, and they jumped four and three spots, respectively, from last week. Their defense is phenomenal, ranking third in EPA and success rate and fourth in DVOA.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

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The Russell Wilson experiment seems to be working. The Steelers haven't lost since he took over the starting job, and their defense is solid. They rank sixth in defensive EPA, 12th in success rate, and eighth in DVOA. They are also second in turnover differential average. Despite things seemingly working out with Wilson, the offensive ranks dropped from last week, going from 13 to 16 in EPA and 17 to 23 in success rate. Still, only the Bills have a longer win streak in the conference.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

The Chiefs were fourth last week, so though they lost to the Bills, they still climbed the rankings. This is interesting, considering the Steelers were ranked third last week and fell back a spot after winning. Anyways, that's what makes these analytical rankings fun: they show how well a team truly played even in a loss. The Chiefs rank second in offensive success rate and are top ten in four other categories. One area bringing down their rank significantly is the turnovers; they rank 23rd in turnover differential average.

2. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

This was surprising to see. The Ravens were ranked second last week, lost against the Steelers, and managed to climb three spots to number two in the Week 12 rankings. As I said, it shows that a team can play well and still lose a game. Conversely, consider the Lions' game a few weeks ago when Jared Goff threw numerous interceptions, yet the Lions still managed to secure a victory. Baltimore's offense is ridiculous, ranking first in all three offensive categories.

1. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

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Buffalo secured a massive win against the Chiefs, maintaining its spot at No. 1 in the AFC. Despite a lot of movement every week in the top five, the Bills have remained in the top spot all season. They are a model of consistency, ranking top ten in all but one category, including first in turnover differential average, and second in both offensive EPA and point differential average.

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