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AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Do Bills remain on top entering Week 13?

We've turned to advanced analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season.

Ronnie Eastham

Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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We're 12 weeks into the 2024 NFL season, and the true contenders are beginning to rise to the top. In the AFC, only one of the four divisions is still a fight, as a mere half-game separates the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. In terms of strength, the AFC isn't what we were expecting and is top-heavy; however, make no mistake, the top teams in the conference are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Ranking all 32 teams using advanced analytics results in seven of the top 11 teams being from the AFC, while nine of the bottom 13 are also from the AFC. It's a conference of extremes, and here's how its teams stack up entering Week 13.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

  • Defensive DVOA
  • Defensive EPA
  • Offensive Success Rate
  • Defensive Success Rate
  • Turnover Differential Average
  • Points Differential Average
  • Win/Loss Record

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)

Antonio Pierc
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Raiders lost Gardner Minshew reportedly for the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. This comes after quarterback Aiden O'Connell has been sidelined with a broken thumb; however, reports indicate he will start this weekend. Either way, the Raiders are not good whether it's Minshew or O'Connell behind center. They rank dead last in offensive EPA and turnover differential, while also ranking 30th in offensive DVOA. Head coach Antonio Pierce wasn't lying when he described them as the worst team in football.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)

For all the shots fired at quarterback Trevor Lawrence for being "overrated," he isn't the reason the Jaguars are struggling this season. Only two other teams in the league have given up more points than the Jags, with 316 points allowed. Their defense ranks 32nd in EPA and DVOA. While Lawrence hasn't lived up to his high draft status, you could do much worse at the quarterback position.

14. New England Patriots (3-9)

There isn't much to say about the Patriots. We've already talked about the improvement that Drake Maye has brought to the quarterback position; however, this team is still a bad football team. The future is bright, but they currently rank 31st and 30th in offensive and defensive DVOA respectively.

13. Cleveland Browns (3-8)

Jameis Winsto
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Browns have secured three victories this season, with two wins remarkably coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Defensively, the Browns aren't what they used to be; however, it's the offense that is abysmal this year. They rank 29th and 30th in offensive EPA and success rate, respectively.

12. Tennessee Titans (3-8)

Tennessee has been excellent on defense, ranking top ten in all three analytics categories. However, the offense is terrible, ranking 30th in EPA, 28th in success rate, and 28th in DVOA. The Titans are probably a couple of years or more away from becoming a threat in the AFC, and though Will Levis has looked solid in recent weeks, he likely will never be a franchise quarterback.

11. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)

The Colts rank last in offensive success rate, which is a big reason they can't seem to stack a few wins together. This team isn't a playoff-ready team, but there are a couple of bright spots. They rank in the top 15 in defensive EPA and defensive success rate. They are just outside of the top 15, sitting at 16, in defensive DVOA. They also have good players at the skill positions but need better, more consistent play from Anthony Richardson.

10. Miami Dolphins (5-6)

Miami Dolphin
Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

Miami has revived its playoff hopes by stacking three consecutive wins, but it's still a longshot given the losing streak it experienced in Tua Tagovailoa's absence. The team's offensive numbers dipped noticeably without Tagovailoa, which is reflected in the season's advanced analytics. This inconsistency is evident in their rankings, where they are placed 25th in EPA, yet hold a respectable 16th in success rate. The defense is good as well, ranking 13th in EPA and success rate.

9. New York Jets (3-8)

The Jets organization appears disorganized, yet they rank surprisingly high in analytics, placing in the top ten. Observing their performance on the field, they often seem lackluster, but there are moments when they exhibit strong play, sometimes within the same game. Defensively, they rank 15th and 10th in EPA and success rate, respectively, but 20th in offensive and defensive DVOA.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

The Bengals continue to lose games, dropping their seventh of the year, with back-to-back losses against the Ravens and Chargers. The offense is fantastic and statistically, Joe Burrow is having an MVP-level season, but the defense brings this team down. The Bengals rank 27th in defensive EPA and success rate, and 26th in DVOA.

7. Houston Texans (7-5)

CJ Strou
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Texans haven't been consistent this season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. They rank 21st in EPA, 29th in success rate, and 24th in DVOA. The Texans' defense is carrying their ranking, sitting fourth in EPA, second in success rate, and third in DVOA. Houston also ranks fifth in turnover differential average.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

The Steelers sit atop the NFC North, but after a loss to the Browns, they are only a half-game ahead of the Ravens, who rank higher on our list. Pittsburgh's offensive numbers improved with Russell Wilson at under center; it ranks 16th in EPA, but only 27th in success rate and 22nd in DVOA. On defense, they rank top 12 in all three categories, and they're second in turnover differential average.

5. Denver Broncos (7-5)

Bo Nix is a big reason for the Broncos climbing the ranks. His play has taken a significant step up in recent weeks, and the Broncos now rank in the top 20 in all three offensive categories. Their defense is terrific too, ranking third in EPA, and fourth in success rate and DVOA. They also sit ninth in point differential.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

Patrick Mahome
Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Chiefs once again escaped a loss but this time against a bad Carolina Panthers team. Anyone who thinks the Chiefs should be ranked higher simply because of their record should watch them play. While they are a good football team, they are not as good as their record would indicate. The Chiefs rank 17th in defensive EPA and success rate, so their defense isn't this all-world unit many would have you believe. Likewise, their turnover differential average of 23rd is a big reason for where they fall in these rankings as well.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

Despite the loss to the Ravens this week, the Chargers come in at No. 3 in the AFC. They rank sixth in defensive EPA, first in success rate, sixth in turnover differential average, and fifth in point differential. The offense has played better as of late but still ranks 31st in offensive success rate.

2. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

The Ravens seem to bounce up and down within the top five, but that makes sense given random losses to the Browns and Raiders. Their offense is elite and the best in the league, ranking first in EPA and DVOA, and fourth in success rate. The defense ranks 20th in defensive EPA and 15th DVOA, but a decent ninth place ranking in defensive success rate.

1. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

Josh Allen
Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bills at 9-2 are off to their best 11-game start since 1992. The analytics show why they are the top-ranked team in the AFC, a spot they've held since we started these rankings after Week 2. The Bills rank second in offensive EPA and point differential average. They also rank first in turnover differential average, fourth in offensive DVOA, and seventh in defensive DVOA. Their lowest ranks are in defensive EPA and success rate, coming in at 11th and 14th, respectively.

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Ronnie Eastham
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