Bills Central

Cardinals vs. Bills: Why this rookie RB is an X-Factor in NFL Week 1

Who's going to exceed expectations this week?

Chris Seth

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Whether it's season-long fantasy football, daily fantasy, best ball, betting, or just sounding smarter than your friends, you need to know where those surprise NFL breakouts are coming from to create value.

When the Buffalo Bills face off with the Arizona Cardinals for their season opener in Orchard Park this Sunday, new full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady will finally unveil his version of the Bills’ offense. When filling in for Ken Dorsey on an interim basis in 2023, Brady was confined by the offensive structure Dorsey had in place. That is not a knock on Dorsey - that would be true for any mid-season coordinator switch. In 2024, however, Brady has installed his offensive design with players he had input on acquiring.

Many in Bills Mafia expect Brady to use James Cook as a lead back much in the same way he did in 2023. Fantasy owners beware, though, because head coach Sean McDermott has typically employed a shared backfield. The split between RB1 and RB2 carries for the McDermott tenure is roughly 2:1 with outliers in 2019 (1:1) and 2023 (2.5:1). The ratio from 2023 could be attributed to how Brady intends to utilize the former Georgia Bulldog, or it could be because of injuries to players like Damien Harris, demonstrated decline (Latavius Murray), or general ineffectiveness (Leonard Fournette).

Enter Ray Davis. Selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft, Davis is 5-foot-10 and 216 pounds, and averaged 5.7 YPC against Kentucky’s SEC schedule in 2023.

In Weeks 1-6, while Damien Harris was still healthy, he and Murray had twice as many rushing attempts inside the five-yard line as the rest of the team (10-5), and Allen only had three. After Harris’ injury and Murray's decline, from Weeks 7-18, Allen had 12 of the team’s 20 carries inside the five. Allen is a remarkable weapon, but the Bills want to protect him, and they have sought out an effective alternative for goalline carries for a few years. In this context, consider this:

Davis was tenth in FBS in 2023 in EPA/Att inside the five-yard line for RBs with 10 or more attempts, including eight TDs.

Related: Cardinals vs. Bills: 4 key players to watch in NFL Week 1

Davis’ footwork and vision have translated to the preseason. While he only had 13 carries, Davis led the Bills in Yards After Contact/Att (3.46) and had the team’s longest preseason rush (19 yards). Some mid-to-late-round rookies show early that they aren’t ready for the NFL, but Davis’ preseason tape shows he is not overwhelmed by the step-up in competition.

Davis’ first NFL competitor is the Arizona Cardinals, who, politely, were not good at defending the run in 2023. Arizona's run defense stats and ranks from last year:

  • Rush Yards: 2,434 (32) 
  • Rush 1st Downs: 141 (31)
  • YAC 1,349 (30)
  • Broken Tackles 33 (27)
  • Y/A 4.7 (31)
  • Stuffs (carries w zero or fewer yards): 15.4% (31)
  • Boom Rate (a play with an EPA of 1+): 9.4% (29)

The Cardinals aggressively addressed their front seven issues in the offseason with the acquisitions of defensive linemen LJ Collier, Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols, Khyiris Tonga, TJ Carter, and Myles Murphy in addition to linebackers Krys Barnes, Mack Wilson, Markus Bailey, Xavier Thomas, Chris Garrett, and Marquis Haynes. Most all of whom were released at cutdown.

They also extended Zaven Collins for two years, but the former 16th overall pick took a deal for only $7 million AAV, which is underwhelming for the edge market.

They drafted an interesting defensive line prospect in Darius Robinson, but he is unfortunately on injured reserve.

Bottom line, this is the Arizona front seven heading into Week 1.

From ESPN
From ESPN /

Kyzir White has shown he can play at a respectable level, but you’re forgiven if you don’t know any of these names.

Even with the Bills’ maneuvers along the offensive line, they should be able to generate a consistent push against the Cardinals’ line. 

Game Plan and Prediction

Watch for an offensive game plan where the Bills have a run/pass split close to 55:45, with Cook getting 20-25 carries and Ray Davis getting 10-15 attempts, including a few near the goalline.

Betting Market Line: O 16.5 ru yards -120*

X Factor Predicted Line: 12 rushing attempts, 47 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 rec, 12 receiving yards

*Betting lines are only used for comparative purposes.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Chris Seth

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