WATCH: Bills knew they couldn't make a huge trade up in 2024 NFL Draft
A common narrative among Bills Mafia and draft pundits heading into the 2024 NFL Draft was that the Buffalo Bills needed to take a huge swing and trade up in the draft to acquire one of the top-tier wide receivers to pair with Josh Allen. This thought grew even stronger after general manager Brandon Beane moved All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick in early April.
This, however, was seemingly never in the cards. An interaction between Beane and New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen documented in the season premiere of HBO's Hard Knocks Offseason with the New York Giants divulged that Buffalo knew a trade into the top 10, or more specifically into the top six, wasn't possible.
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Beane is seen having a conversation at the Senior Bowl with Schoen and Panthers GM Dan Morgan, both of whom previously worked under Beane in Buffalo. In the clip, Schoen asks Morgan and Beane if they want to trade up to pick No. 6. Schoen asks Beane, "You can't afford a top 10 pick?" To which he replied, "I can't afford the pick." The purpose of the clip is the show the moment that Schoen learned of the availability of star pass rusher Brian Burns, but for Bills fans, admitting Buffalo couldn't make that big of a swing is the big news.
If Beane did want to move up to select at No. 6, he would have most likely been targeting LSU's Malik Nabers, who the Giants ended up selecting, or Washington's Rome Odunze, who went ninth overall to the Chicago Bears. All the talk is fun, but what would that trade have looked like? Going off of the classic Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model for draft pick trades, Buffalo would have to have moved 28 + 60 + a future first to even get the Giants' attention. According to the Jimmy Johnson Model, that would be Buffalo giving up roughly 1630 points for the Giants' 1600 points, but we have factored in that future picks are discounted and that we knew WR was a premium position in the 2024 draft.
Instead, the Bills traded back twice with the Chiefs to move from No. 28 to No. 32 then with the Panthers to go from No. 32 to No. 33 where they took wide receiver Keon Coleman out of Florida State. In making those trades, the Bills added picks No. 95 and 141 while shipping out some other late-round selections.
In the end, as much as fans wanted to see Beane make a massive move up for a pass catcher, the head of Buffalo's front office knew back in early February it wasn't going to be possible.
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