Bills Central

Which Bills CBs are among the NFL's most individually impactful?

A brand new stat highlights two under-the-radar Buffalo Bills who deserve more attention.

Chris Seth

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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The NFL analytics community is always developing new ways to help fans deepen their understanding of the game, and one of the more interesting new metrics is from Field Vision. Relatively new to the block, Field Vision is making a name for itself with new takes on data visualization, advanced analytics, and the evolution of stats that reach to explain the more complicated aspects of the game. Their latest foray is a defensive statistic they call Havoc.

Havoc emphasizes the impact plays that defenders can make on a play-by-play basis. Field Vision explains their new model this way:

"Field Vision's Havoc Rating is an expression of a player's value (i.e. How good they are) relative to others in their position group, accounting for the scheme that they play in. Our goal is to get to the most precise, data-based ranking of players and how good they are relative to their peers based on the play-by-play results they actually produce on the field.

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"We express this rating in the form of a percentile from 0-100, weighted within each position group. What does that mean? We are comparing the Havoc that DBs create to other DBs, Linebackers to other Linebackers, DEs to DEs and Interior Defensive Lineman to other interior Defensive Lineman.”

The model evaluated five year’s worth of NFL games, and the impacts it gave the greatest weight to sound like Toxic Differential for individual players. Where Toxic Differential looks at game-changing plays like turnovers and 20+ yard gains, Havoc determined that the biggest plays defenders can make are turnovers (duh), sacks, and pass breakups (especially on deep passes).

Any time a new statistic comes out, fans and the community of analysts have a duty to question its validity. Rather infamously, there was a group last summer who, evidently through the power of marketing and networking, made some very quick rounds in media circles. The instant reporters began to dig even into the thinnest surface of these “new” numbers, the house of cards came tumbling down. They were merely taking the averages of a variety of statistics over 20 years and calling it a new model. So, buyer beware, even with the nerds.

It seems elementary, but one of the best ways for a new metric to prove itself is by aligning with the eye test. For example, if your new model says Justin Jefferson is a good wide receiver, then you can feel like your model might not be terribly off track. If your new data says Andy Isabella is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, you need to head back to the blank spreadsheet.

Any data scientist will want to find “hidden nuggets,’ so they don’t want to simply regurgitate what has come before them, but being aligned with trusted, established data helps underpin any burgeoning stat. The goal is to build new models that create trustworthy data that illuminate certain aspects of the game in an understandable, comprehensive way.

Havoc passes the eye test while bringing a new perspective. Field Vision’s results have some of the common names from the ever-growing avalanche of top ten lists, but also present their data in new ways that highlight some under-appreciated players.

One of the stronger aspects of Havoc is that it attempts to look at complete players. The cornerbacks in their top ten had to excel in both man and zone coverage and be able contributors against the run. Recognizing the full range of responsibilities each defender has offers a more complete evaluation of their performance than just drilling down on run or pass defense alone.

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Field Vision has released their first two sets of Havoc rankings for safeties and cornerbacks. Focusing on cornerbacks, there are two names in the top ten Havoc rankings that Bills fans know well. Coming in at number nine is nickel defender Taron Johnson

9. Taron Johnson, Buffalo Bills (96.3)

Bills Taron Johnson (7), center, celebrates his recovery of a punt that was botched by Pittsburgh.
Bills Taron Johnson (7), center, celebrates his recovery of a punt that was botched by Pittsburgh for a first quarter turnover during their game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. Sd 100922 Bills 5 Spts / Shawn Dowd / USA TODAY NETWORK

“The Bills are the second team to put a pair of corners on this list with Taron Johnson joining Douglas. Johnson is the 2nd best run-stopping corner in the league according to 2024 projected Havoc rate. While he struggles some in man coverage, he is a more than capable coverage corner in zone. Paired with Douglas, the Bills will be dangerous in the secondary in their zone schemes. That’s good news since division rival Tua Tagovailoa generated the highest average EPA in the league against man coverage last season.”

While Johnson came in at nine, a new Bill ranked even higher.

5. Rasul Douglas, Buffalo Bills (98.2)

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) runs back an intercepted pass.
Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (31) runs back an intercepted pass against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

“While Douglas is not as elite in Man Coverage as most on this list, he is Havoc Rates’ 2nd-best zone corner. 2023 was Douglas’ best season to date, but he has been near the top of our rankings for 3 years in a row accelerating his career when he moved to Green Bay in 2021. After getting shipped off to Buffalo last season, Douglas had 4 interceptions and 8 passes defended in just 9 games for the Bills. With the Bills playing zone 79 percent of the time last season, Douglas is primed to be a huge part of the Buffalo attack on defense.”

It is always encouraging to see multiple Bills players in any positive ranking, but it is even more invigorating to see typically under-the-radar players have their skills and accomplishments appreciated by a new metric.

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Chris Seth
CHRIS SETH

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