Did Bills miss with the signing of WR Curtis Samuel?

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel has not been as impactful as expected through the first part of the 2024 season. Was his signing a miss?

Ronnie Eastham | 13 Hours Ago

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

In this story:

Buffalo Bills | News, Scores, Schedules & Standings

The Buffalo Bills, to this point of the 2024 season, are averaging just over 335 yards per game, including 216 through the air. The team is fifth in the league in scoring, averaging an impressive 28.9 points a game. They're also one of the top offensive units in the league analytically, ranking second in EPA per pass at .27 and second in offensive DVOA. The unit is quite impressive, this despite the, thus far, gross underperformance of a key offseason acquisition.

General manager Brandon Beane signed veteran wideout Curtis Samuel to a healthy contract this past offseason, a three-year deal worth $24 million. Fans expected the versatile speedster, who had previously performed well under now-Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady in Carolina, to thrive in a potentially prominent role with the Bills, but he's, through nine games, been anything but notable. Long-viewed as a dynamic player with health concerns who could potentially thrive with a good quarterback, Samuel is actually on pace to post (non-injury impacted) career lows in most key statistics.

Given their experience with each other, it's hard to believe that Brady doesn't know how to utilize Samuel or understand what role he should play within the Bills offense. He's been targeted only 18 times (with 12 receptions), but he's averaging only 7.7 yards per reception with no touchdowns. He's almost exclusively used around the line of scrimmage or in the short passing game, his average depth of target of 5.9 yards being the sixth-lowest number in the NFL among receivers with at least 15 targets. He's essentially a decoy within Buffalo's offense, a player who Brady oft-sends in motion to expose defensive coverages; there's a value in this, sure, but is that value $24 million over three years?

Samuel was injured to start the season with turf toe and has since popped up on the injury report with a pectoral ailment; one has to believe that he's not fully healthy at this point, resulting in his lack of impact. It's the only justifiable explanation for why he's played on only ~30% of the team's offensive snaps thus far; otherwise, he's either being grossly misused and underutilized, or this was a fundamentally miscalculated signing.

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

At this point, the Bills should consider elevating K.J. Hamler or Jalen Virgil from the practice squad and placing Samuel on injured reserve to allow him to achieve full health before the final weeks of the campaign. Buffalo will need every weapon possible for the playoff push and throughout the postseason. Hamler and Virgil bring speed akin to Samuel but are healthy; we've seen over the past two weeks that Virgil can also be used in pre-snap motions à la Samuel.

One may wonder if the Bills could just move on from Samuel given his struggles, but doing so at this juncture (or in the near future) likely isn't feasible; Buffalo would lose over $10 million by releasing him now and roughly $2 million by releasing him next year. That's why allowing him to get fully healthy is important in terms of maximizing this move; he has a role, sure, but he could be so much more impactful. Shut him down for the time being and give him the role initially intended for him upon his return.

— Enjoy free coverage of the Bills from Buffalo Bills on SI —