Bills Central

Why TE Dalton Kincaid is Bills' X-Factor vs. Jaguars despite slow start

Dalton Kincaid has been close to invisible. That changes this week.

Chris Seth

Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
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When the Buffalo Bills take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night to close out the third week of the 2024 NFL season, they have an opportunity to kickstart Dalton Kincaid’s surprisingly slow start to the new campaign. It feels like cheating to say a player many expected to lead the Bills in targets is an X Factor, a relative unknown who helps shape the outcome of the game, but with only five receptions so far, an exception will be made for the second-year tight end.

Kincaid’s target projections universally exceeded over 100 entering the new year, with some as high as 120+, but two weeks in, Kincaid has an average of 3.0 targets per game. To reach 100 targets at that pace, he’ll need just over 31 more games. There is no math genius at this keyboard, but 31 games can’t fit into a 17-game schedule. So, is there any reason for hope?

The easy answer is yes. It’s easy because two games is a crazy small sample size, and Kincaid’s week-to-week performance can grow substantially from the first two weeks based on a wide variety of factors. One of those factors is how opposing defenses focus on Kincaid. There were numerous times in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals that Kincaid drew the attention of three defensive backs. There were even a couple of plays where four DBs collapsed toward the talented pass-catcher. Those weren’t insane defensive designs to shut Kincaid out, but he was clearly an emphasis for the Cardinals’ defenders, and they always had eyes on him and recognized his importance to the Bills’ offense.

Dalton Kincaid
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Teams won’t play Kincaid that way every week, especially when the Bills’ run game is starting to dictate to opponents. Some folks are moaning about Joe Brady’s increased run usage, but as the Bills continue winning with that formula, teams will be forced to dedicate more resources to stopping the ground game. That usually means moving back to a base defense with at least three linebackers. That personnel should lead to increased room for the Bills to attack the middle of the field with the pass. Forcing defenses to choose between defending an effective run game and an effective pass game is the point of building a multidimensional offense like the Bills and Brandon Beane have pursued for years.

Attacking defenses that are better against the run than Kincaid and the passing game could start this week. Jacksonville’s pass coverage is led by their safeties, Antonio Johson and Andre Cisco. They are solid, if not well-known. The Jags are missing their best cover corner with Tyson Campbell’s injury, and, while one-time Bill Ronald Darby is a legitimate NFL cornerback, there are places to attack their coverage beyond those positions. For instance: watch for the Bills to try to get Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir lined up versus the Jacksonville nickel defender Jarrian Jones, who has struggled against faster, quicker receivers so far this season.

Related: How a Bills win or loss in Week 3 would impact AFC East standings

Finding the opponent’s weaknesses brings us to the Jaguars’ linebackers in coverage. Devin Lloyd has performed well in limited testing in 2024, but his career in pass coverage suggests he should be targeted more often. Foyesade Oluokun is a reliable run defender, but in his seven-year career he allows an 80.5% completion rate for 9.5 ypc. It’s possible the Jags have turned these two into lights-out pass defenders, but the Bills should make them prove it several times over before probing other areas.

Even if the Jaguars are not particularly weak in pass coverage, Kincaid could still begin his march toward his breakout season based on his talent alone. Despite the fact that he has started slowly, there are statistics that reveal his abilities.

Kincaid’s 46 yards after contact is a crazy number considering he only has five catches on the season, meaning he is averaging 9.2 yards after contact PER CATCH. Kincaid showed in his rookie year that he has an understanding of spacing and exceptional field awareness to complement a toughness and ability to consistently get more yards than expected. Kincaid routinely finds a way to fall forward for two more yards or dip his shoulder and knife between multiple defenders to steal an extra yard.

Lastly, Kincaid is liable to have a 10-target game at any moment because Josh Allen takes care of his guys. The team and Allen know that Kincaid is hyper-talented, a crucial piece to their success for the season, and should be averaging more than three targets per game. Allen has repeatedly fed receivers, usually Stefon Diggs, when he knew a player had earned more attention. While that may have been a squeaky wheel response with some players, it is also a demonstration of Allen’s leadership to keep his teammates feeling connected and involved.

While Kincaid is a household name for Bills Mafia, his season through the first two weeks has underwhelmed, but don't be surprised if he breaks out Monday night.

Betting Market Line, Kincaid’s Receiving Yards: 38.5, O -115, U-115*

X Factor Predicted Line: 8 Tgts, 6 rec, 65+ yds

*Gambling data is included for comparison purposes only

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Chris Seth
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