Bills Central

Where ESPN ranks Bills among rest of the NFL entering 2024 NFL season

Are we finally getting the Bills vs 49ers in the Super Bowl?

McKenna Middlebrook

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is hit as he goes out of bounds by Jets Hamsah Nasirildeen. The Bills beat the Jets 27-10 to win the AFC east.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is hit as he goes out of bounds by Jets Hamsah Nasirildeen. The Bills beat the Jets 27-10 to win the AFC east. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
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ESPN has busted out their Football Power Index as we edge ever closer to the start of the 2024 NFL season. The outlet explains their FPI as the ‘best’ way to measure a team's strength, with a higher number meaning the stronger the team. It’s also a tool ESPN uses to predict the upcoming season, and their metrics have plenty to say about the Buffalo Bills. 

Firstly, the FPI has the Bills ranked as the fifth-best team in the NFL going into the start of the season. They are currently sandwiched between two NFC clubs, the Detroit Lions at fourth and the Dallas Cowboys sitting at sixth. In terms of national media, ranking the Bills fifth is on the higher side of projections. Most outlets have them ranked in the lower half of the top 10 going into the season, with the Bills being ranked as low as 10th by PFF. 

It’s hard to predict the Bills because their offense going into next season is in flux given the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and their defense has lost veteran leadership across nearly every level. The defense is also going to be helmed by first-time defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (though he may not call plays). But, the Bills do have Josh Allen, and in the modern NFL landscape, a great quarterback can carry a team to great things even if their roster is deficient in other areas, which the Bills frankly are. They have depth, but not incredible talent at wide receiver, they’re lacking high-end talent at defensive end, and there are generally question marks at several spots on the roster. 

But Allen is the great equalizer.

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ESPN’s FPI, while ranking them fifth going into the start of the season, believes the Bills have the seventh best chance to win the Super Bowl this season at 6%. Teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are ahead of the Bills, which is fair, but having the likes of the Lions, Cowboys, and Ravens above Buffalo is… interesting. The Lions and Ravens, sure, are coming off Conference Championship appearances, but they, too, have holes in their rosters and arguably don’t have a quarterback as talented as Josh Allen (though Lamar Jackson presents a compelling argument).

In terms of who the Bills are going to play in the Super Bowl, if they make it, FPI has the Bills at a 4% chance to play the 49ers in the big game. Someone check on Chris Berman.

In terms of conference title match-ups, the Bills have a 6% chance to play the Chiefs, a 5% to play the Baltimore Ravens, and a 3% chance to play the Cincinnati Bengals. All of these would be high-octane battles, but seeing the Bengals or the Chiefs again in the playoffs again could be too much to bear for Bills Mafia. 

The FPI also gives the Bills a 44% to win the division, which would make them AFC East champions for the fifth year in a row. For those in Western New York that would be a great step in washing the taste of Patriots dominance out of their mouths, but ultimately meaningless if they don’t win a Super Bowl. 

Projections are ultimately just that, projections. The real games don’t start being played until September, and plenty can change from now until then. These rankings will most likely change before the season starts, but, if they hold true, it’s going to be another year of mixed success for the Buffalo Bills.

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McKenna Middlebrook
MCKENNA MIDDLEBROOK

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