Bills given NFL’s second-highest percentage chance to make Super Bowl through Week 2

ESPN feels as though the Buffalo Bills have a great opportunity to accomplish something of note in the 2024 NFL season.

Kyle Silagyi | Sep 17, 2024

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It’s entirely premature to discuss this season’s Super Bowl given that we’re through only two weeks, but if a recent ESPN article is to be believed, Western New Yorkers may want to start looking into hotels in the New Orleans, LA area in early February.

The outlet recently published its updated 2024 playoff projections, providing the percentage chance that each NFL team will qualify for the playoffs, win its respective division, earn a first-round bye, and represent their conference in Super Bowl LIX. The Buffalo Bills have the league’s second-highest odds in each metric through two games, as ESPN has attributed them an 89% chance to make the playoffs, 69% chance to win their division, 27% chance to earn a bye, and 20% chance to make the Super Bowl at this juncture.

Buffalo’s “make playoffs,” “earn bye,” and “make Super Bowl” percentages are second to only the Kansas City Chiefs (91%, 29%, and 22%), while only the Houston Texans have a higher percentage chance to win their division (75%) given the lackluster start the AFC South has gotten off to.

The team’s favorable odds to achieve something of note this season are not necessarily surprising given their promising start. Quarterback Josh Allen looked stellar in the team’s come-from-behind Week 1 win over the Arizona Cardinals, as he threw for 232 yards and picked up another 39 yards on the ground as he totaled four touchdowns in the 34-28 win. He wasn’t asked to do as much in the Bills’ Week 2 win over the Miami Dolphins, but third-year ballcarrier James Cook picked up the slack with a hat-trick of scores in the 31-10 victory. Buffalo’s defense has looked stellar over the past six quarters, allowing just 13 points as cornerbacks Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, in particular, have shined.

The Bills have long been viewed as one of the league’s most competitive teams, but national discourse took on a different tone throughout the offseason given the departures of key offensive and defensive players like Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer. It’s important not to place too much stock into two games, but Buffalo largely hasn’t missed a beat following the departures thus far; the team has looked schematically creative and sound on each side of the ball, something that would suggest that the Bills will remain competitive throughout the campaign despite their, on paper, lesser roster.

The New York Jets have the next highest odds to win the AFC East at 25%, with the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots each having a 3% chance. Much can change between now and the end of the campaign, but at this juncture, it looks as though Buffalo is on its way toward earning its sixth consecutive postseason berth and fifth straight division crown.

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