ESPN identifies WR as Bills 'biggest hole,' casts doubt on offseason moves

An ESPN writer thinks that the Buffalo Bills still have a significant hole at wide receiver, questioning if the team has effectively replaced its departures.

Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) runs the / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

You can call it whatever you want—a changing of the guard, an on-field and locker-room shakeup, a financial necessity—but the fundamental point remains: the Buffalo Bills saw significant turnover at the wide receiver position in the 2024 offseason.

The team has deployed one of the league’s most productive aerial attacks in recent years, finishing in the top 10 in total passing in each of the past four seasons thanks to the prowess of elite quarterback Josh Allen and his respective rapports with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Throw in contributions from players like Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, and Khalil Shakir over the years, and you have the basis of a perennially effective passing unit.

The realities of the NFL salary cap—and of a team’s sometimes tenuous relationships with its superstars—can come at you fast, however, and they came at the Bills in the 2024 offseason. Buffalo let Davis, who caught 163 passes for 2,730 yards and 27 touchdowns over his four seasons with the team, walk in free agency, with the 25-year-old signing a three-year, $39 million contract with his hometown Jacksonville Jaguars in March. The team traded Diggs to the Houston Texans the next month following increasing rumors of the wideout’s dissatisfaction with the team. A four-time Pro Bowler in Buffalo, Diggs caught 445 passes for 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns throughout his near-half-century with the team.

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Buffalo lost its two primary aerial contributors by allowing Diggs and Davis to depart, eliminating a combined 152 receptions for 1,929 yards and 15 touchdowns from a season ago.

The team hopes to replace (some of) this production by promoting the aforementioned Shakir and sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid to more significant offensive roles. The Bills also added external reinforcements in the spring in the form of free agents Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, also drafting big-bodied pass-catcher Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to play a substantial immediate offensive role.

One outlet doesn’t feel that the team’s efforts in replacing its departing production were significant enough. Football Outsiders founder and current ESPN writer Aaron Schatz recently identified each team’s biggest weakness following the 2024 NFL Draft; despite being generally complimentary of Coleman as a player, he’s not confident in Buffalo’s receiving corps as a whole.

“The problem is that Coleman may now be the Bills' best wide receiver,” Schatz wrote. “Khalil Shakir is a speed demon who had excellent advanced metrics last year (55.1% DVOA on 45 targets!), but is he ready to be a starter in the NFL? Curtis Samuel is an average slot receiver who has never ranked above 39th in receiving DYAR. Mack Hollins will be 31 years old this year. Recent signee Chase Claypool is on his fourth team since 2022 and hasn't been able to replicate his rookie year production in 2020. KJ Hamler and Quintez Cephus are ‘never healthy’ lottery tickets. Forget Stefon Diggs; I'm not sure this team has really replaced Gabe Davis yet, either.”

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It’s perhaps a bit of a pessimistic assessment of the Bills’ receiver room, but it’s not necessarily inaccurate. Coleman, who caught 50 passes for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Florida State Seminoles last season, has jump-ball ability and potential, but one can understand a pundit not sharing general manager Brandon Beane’s belief in the wideout as the team’s immediate ‘X’ wide receiver.

Shakir has shown flashes in spot duty, but while there’s certainly reason for optimism, he’s unproven as a starter. While Samuel faces an advantageous opportunity in Buffalo now paired with the best signal-caller of his career and the offensive coordinator who helped him produce the best statistical season of his career, it’s true that the wideout has never bested 851 receiving yards in a single season. Hollins is primarily a special teamer, while Claypool, Hamler, and Cephus are shots at the dartboard that, in all likelihood, won’t hit.

Though it makes sense for Schatz to omit mention of Buffalo’s tight-end group given his sole focus on the team’s receiving corps, it’s perhaps a bit disingenuous to discuss the Bills’ passing attack without mentioning the unit. Kincaid flashed as a rookie to the tune of 73 passes for 673 yards, and many are projecting the former Utah pass-catcher to lead the Bills in receptions in his sophomore year. Allen also has a demonstrated rapport with Dawson Knox, who has caught 171 passes for 1,966 yards and 22 touchdowns throughout his five-year career.

Regardless, Buffalo's receiving corps proper is unproven. There are long-term elements of the unit to like, but there’s little concrete evidence to suggest that the unit will be able to replicate the success it has produced in recent seasons. That said, Allen is the great equalizer. It’ll take a truly special quarterback to lead this seemingly bog-standard group of pass-catchers to elite production; fortunately for Buffalo, it has a truly special signal-caller.