'Make-or-Break': Will Bills Pay WR Gabe Davis?

The Buffalo Bills added a weapon offensively with tight end Dalton Kincaid in the draft, yet this won't underscore why they need another big year from wide receiver Gabe Davis.

Depending on who you ask, the future of Buffalo Bills receiver Gabe Davis with the franchise is in question. Some see Davis as the long-term option as the deputy to Stefon Diggs out wide, but, at the same time, others are skeptical because of a perceived inconsistency.

No matter how you see it, Davis needs a big year for the Bills' sake and for himself. The former UCF man is entering the final year of his rookie deal and potentially could price himself out of Buffalo if he doesn't put it all together this coming fall. Spotrac's market valuation for Davis is currently $12.4 million annually, which is just higher than what the Dallas Cowboys are paying Michael Gallup, their No. 2 receiver.

Pro Football Focus has labeled it a "make-or-break" year for Davis in a recent article where the Bills wide receiver was named among five others who need a big season. 

On paper, Davis's 48 catches for 838 yards and seven touchdowns seem like the type of production the Bills would want from their No. 2. Add in the fact it was a progression from the prior season, where he totaled 549 yards and six touchdowns on 35 receptions. 

Yet, PFF paints a worrisome picture about Davis's 2022 season using advanced analytics to prove that maybe last fall was more of a regression than progression. 

"In 2022, Davis' 66.3 receiving grade ranked 45th out of 60 receivers who saw at least 75 targets," PFF wrote. "His average of 1.41 yards per route run dropped him to 37th among receivers, his 27.6% catch rate on contested targets plummeted him down to 56th and his 81.9 passer rating when targeted ranked 44th."

Compare those to the numbers Davis had in the prior season, granted with less production, and you can see why PFF has him listed. 

Davis's 2021 Advanced Analytics via PFF: 

• Ranked No. 14 with an 80.0 receiving grade
• Ranked No. 15 with an average of 1.93 yards per route run
• Ranked No. 1 for contested catches 76.9 percent
• Ranked No. 2 for QBR when targeted at 130.3 percent

After the Cincinnatti Bengals limited Diggs to four receptions for 35 yards in the AFC Divisional Round game as the Bills lost 27-10, adding another weapon was a goal for Buffalo's front office. No, Utah's Dalton Kincaid is not a wide receiver but rather a tight end. However, his production, tied with Davis', could be a determining factor in whether or not the Bills bring back their No. 2 wideout.

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