Bills vs. Texans NFL Week 5 Preview: Revenge is a Dish

The Buffalo Bills will look to get back in the win column in a Week 5 clash with the Houston Texans.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Oct 4, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s fifth edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 5 clash with the Houston Texans. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Texans Pass Defense

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Sunday night’s matchup with the Baltimore Ravens saw the Buffalo Bills' offense truly struggle for the first time this season, and their passing attack was not exempt from that. Buffalo netted just 155 yards through the air and didn’t find the endzone via pass for the first time this season in one of the odder Bills games in recent memory. Issues could be found in each position group; receivers accounted for five drops, the offense gave up line pressures, and Josh Allen was credited with four bad throws. Compare that to the first three weeks where receivers had one drop, and Allen had been pressured just eight times in totality and this was about as bad a showing as you could get from one of the league’s more dangerous passing offenses. The real question now is whether or not Week 4 demonstrated symptoms of larger issues, or was that game simply an anomaly in an otherwise hot start to the season by Buffalo?

Bills fans will hope for the latter and expect a better showing this week in Houston when they take on the Texans. Houston comes into this game ranked 11th in Pass Defense DVOA (-6.9%), but it has also given up the fourth fewest passing yards (644) this season. Much of the struggles opposing quarterbacks have against the Texans can be attributed directly to their No. 1 cornerback Derek Stingley in addition to Jalen Pitre, who has mostly made the shift from safety to nickel cornerback. Stingley has quietly been one of the NFL’s top corners since entering the league and, despite not having the fan fair of a player like Sauce Gardner, has the ability to lock down anyone in his purview. As for Pitre, his versatility makes him an exceptionally dangerous player who can be a ball hawk when needed and pivot to a run stopper easily. Those two are joined by outside corner Kamari Lassiter and a platoon of safeties in veterans Jimmie Ward and Eric Murray as well as 2024 third-round pick Calen Bullock. It’s an odd matchup for Buffalo, who will likely see Pitre blanket Kincaid and will need to rely on players like Curtis Samuel (WR), Keon Coleman (WR), and possibly Khalil Shakir to win their respective matchups while Allen stays away from Stingley.

The most intriguing matchup in this game is likely the Bills' offensive line versus the Texans' pass rush. The Ravens may have exposed a bit of a book on Buffalo, who struggled to handle Baltimore’s disguised blitzes and at times struggled to block five with seven, resulting in Allen spending much of the game avoiding pass rushers. For Houston, leaning on defensive ends Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter to win their respective matchups should allow them to get a bit cuter internally with the pass rush. This raises the importance of Bills' offensive tackles Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins (possibly Ryan Van Demark, pending injury) to win their respective matchups so more help can be provided internally. In that regard, Houston tends to rush with a rotation of Mario Edwards, Folorunso Fatukasi, Tim Settle, and Khalil Davis with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair always a threat to blitz. Buffalo’s internal line will have a lot of pressure to rebound this week after a rough showing against the Ravens, and while Houston’s front seven may not be as dynamic, they can be as dangerous.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Texans Rush Defense

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Because of the way the Bills' Week 4 clash unfolded, the Buffalo run game essentially became a non-factor early. Down three scores a little over twenty minutes into the game meant the ball was almost exclusively in Allen’s hands, something that the Ravens were able to key on. This was one of many reasons that Buffalo backs accounted for just 53 rushing yards, which, at least for now, should be treated as an aberration. That being said, with a fair degree of confidence you can be rest assured that most NFL defensive coordinators apply a lot of focus to Buffalo’s ground game and how best to slow down the combination of Josh Allen and James Cook. A bounceback is inevitable on the ground, but the Texans have the horses to ensure that doesn’t happen this week.

DeMeco Ryans’ defense enters Week 5 ranked fourth in run defense DVOA (-21.2) despite giving up 4.7 yards per attempt (NFL-25). To be fair, they haven’t played any real-world beaters on the ground, as only one team they've faced ranks in the Top 10 in rushing yards (Colts, No. 9), but their run defense has been stout, nonetheless. Much of their success against the run is owed to a second level full of willing and aggressive tacklers which includes the aforementioned Pitre as well as linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair. Both linebackers excel more against the run than the pass, with Shaair the more polished of the two now entering his sixth season. The two have combined for 61 tackles and five tackles for loss through the first four weeks and are solid matchups against both Cook and Allen in open space. Despite neither being particularly spectacular players, both complement a Texans defense with star power everywhere else quite well.

This does project to be the area where Buffalo attacks the Texans because much like the Dolphins, the interior of Houston’s defense is its weak point. Its defensive tackles are fine, with Mario Edwards the most exciting of the bunch despite his lack of size, but they aren’t exactly dominant. For that reason, don’t be surprised if Buffalo attacks early with a plethora of interior rushes as they try to force Pitre and the Texans' safeties to play forward. The two in the one-two punch of this is then the play-action bootleg to the opposite side of Pitre, thus forcing one-on-one situations in the open field between Allen and Texans defenders. Houston has proven more than adequate against the rush this season but the only team they have faced that can stress opponents through the air and on the ground has been the Vikings. That game did not end well for Houston.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Texans Pass Offense

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The dichotomy of the Bills' coverage units is reminiscent of the difference between sushi from Nobu and Gefilte fish from your grandma Ruth’s bathtub. On one hand, you have one of the better corner duos in the NFL in Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, each of whom makes it difficult for even elite quarterbacks to attack the Bills outside the numbers. And then you have the banged-up portion of the Bills' defense where Cam Lewis, Dorian Williams, and Baylon Spector have, at times, been exposed this season through the air. Benford and Douglas aren’t going anywhere but the Bills may get some help in the middle of the field sooner rather than later. Both Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson have begun practicing this week, each of whom are major upgrades against both the run and the pass over their replacements. One or both could make a return as early as this week, but if neither are available, the Bills are going to need to find a way to survive against a lethal Texans offense.

The Texans have the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL, and a part of that trio is Buffalo’s old buddy Stefon Diggs. After four seasons, 445 receptions, 5,375 yards, and 37 touchdowns in Buffalo, Diggs has taken his talents to Houston. There, he is on pace for 106 receptions, 1,041 yards, and 13 touchdowns as he hasn’t missed a beat as Houston’s No. 2 option. Ahead of him is Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards through four games (489) and absolutely eats over the middle of the field, something Buffalo has struggled with. The Texans also seem set to get back speedster Tank Dell, who adds a top breaker to their already dangerous offense and will be a challenge to Damar Hamlin and likely rookie Cole Bishop on Sunday. Sprinkle in good pass catchers out of the backfield as well as one of the league’s more underrated tight ends in Dalton Schultz, and you are going to cause issues for even the best pass defenses in the NFL, especially when one of the league's brightest young quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud is dishing the rock.

That’s the good for Houston, but there is some bad, specifically the struggles of its offensive line. Stroud has been pressured at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (27.5%), sacked the sixth-most (13), and has had just 2.3 seconds of pocket time. The struggles begin on the inside and permeate to the outside. The combination of Juice Scruggs (C), Kenyon Green (LG), and Shaq Mason (RG) have given up five sacks while both Laremy Tunsil (LT) and Tytus Howard (RT) have struggled at points this season against pass rushes. Adding to concerns for Houston, both Scruggs and Tunsil have been limited with injuries this week, Scruggs with a groin injury and Tunsil with a sprained ankle. Both are expected to play but below 100%, something Buffalo needs to lean into. Expect the Bills to mix and match styles of pass rush over Tunsil in order to force him into difficult situations where he is flag-prone (11 penalties this season) while Buffalo looks for Ed Oliver to get back to his dominant play over Scruggs.

ADVANTAGE: Texans 👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Texans Rush Offense

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It seems that at least once every year, the Bills' run defense gets absolutely gashed on the ground by an opponent, resulting in a loss. In 2020 it was the Chiefs (245 yards), 2021 the Colts (264 yards), 2022 the Jets (174), 2023 the Jaguars (196 yards), and now in 2024 the Ravens (271 yards). It’s something Buffalo works to improve throughout the year, seemingly every year, and is something it will yet again need to fix this season. Luckily for the Bills, they have an easy path to resolution this season as they get healthier, but there are other avenues available to them, as well. For one, their defensive tackles need to play up to their potential; for two, their young backup linebackers need more live action in order to improve how they execute their instincts. Whatever path Buffalo targets for quick improvement, Bills fans will hope they hit a bullseye this week.

Luckily for Buffalo, it appears as though the Texans will likely be without their top two running backs for yet another week. Joe Mixon has yet to practice for the Texans, and neither has Dameon Peirce, both of whom are nursing lower body injuries. The result is a Texans team that will need to lean on Cam Akers and J.J. Taylor to lead the way on the ground this week. To date in 2024, the two have combined for just 127 yards on the ground and a sub-par 3.5 yards per attempt. That efficiency is just not good enough, but the Texans faithful should expect it to improve against a Bills team that's allowing a league-worst 5.7 yards per attempt. For Buffalo, that’s something it will try to force Houston into doing, as the talent level in the run game is significantly lower than that of the Stroud-led passing attack.

There are some auxiliary ways the Texans can contend on the ground, and that begins with their wide receivers. In three games, Dell has had five rushing attempts while Diggs has two through four weeks in an offense that likes to surprise with motion and handoffs to their wideouts at least a couple of times a game. This is something Buffalo must be aware of and coach up its defensive ends to monitor throughout the game. Further, Buffalo must also keep an eye on Stroud, who, while less mobile than most, still has the ability to pick up yardage and extend drives with his legs. He’s currently averaging a little more than 10 rushing yards per game and has picked up a couple of first downs in the process. Neither of these extra threats are of particular concern for the Bills' defense, but with the issues Buffalo has had defending the run, any attempt on the ground has the possibility of resulting in a big gain.

ADVANTAGE: Texans 👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Texans Special Teams

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The concern around Tyler Bass is growing week by week. It isn’t necessarily how many he has missed (three), it’s how he is missing them. Two field goals and one extra point, with the most recent field goal miss being one of the most obvious shanks you will see from an NFL kicker. He is running out of chances with the coaching staff and one more miss may force them to do something drastic. After him, Sam Martin has been rock solid for Buffalo and Brandon Codrington looks like he could be special as a returner. On Codrington, the way in which he handles returns looks different than that of an average returner, leading to expectations that sooner and/or later, he is going to break a big gain.

For all the concern that the Bills have at kicker, the Texans have almost as much confidence. Ka’imi Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in the NFL the past few seasons, missing only five kicks since 2022, two of which came from 50+. He is one of the premier kickers in the NFL and if he lines up for an attempt, there is about a 95% chance the Texans are getting points. They also have a really good punter in ex-Chiefs All-Pro (2022) Tommy Townsend. On his 17 punts thus far in 2024, eight of them have dropped within the 20 while he has only allowed a total of 13 return yards on the season. Lastly is return where the Texans are lacking much firepower; they have tried both Steven Sims and Robert Woods at both kick and punt return. With their offense, they don’t need much in that role, but it is one of the weaker aspects of the team.

ADVANTAGE: Texans 👏👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The book on the Bills may have been written by the Ravens, with two unique strategies available on both offense and defense to cause them issues. On defense, the scheme relies on disguised blitzes and playing close to the line of scrimmage. Houston can do just that by sending blitzes from their secondary or linebacker while relying on its coverage personnel to press and diminish the ability for YAC. Add to that a slew of edge rushers in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter who can be world-beaters when playing at their peak, and Houston has a defense that can cause the Bills' offense issues.

On the offensive side of the ball, the way to beat Buffalo is either on the ground or over the middle. Yes, Houston is banged up at running back and offensive line, but with Buffalo’s issues against the run, it may not matter. Expect the Texans to test Buffalo early to see if they have the ability to hold up against the likes of Cam Akers. Further, Houston has proven able to stress opponents over the middle, especially with the use of Nico Collins. With Buffalo’s injuries, which now include starting safety Taylor Rapp, the middle is an area of weakness. While the Texans have the talent to stress the Bills' outside corners, doing so this weak is not a strategy they need to pursue.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Buffalo was the most dominant team in football through three weeks, and despite being dominated by the Ravens, as it stands that game appears to be an anomaly. Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and regardless of who he is throwing to, he has proven capable of dominating opposing offenses. There is more reason to expect the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Month to dominate this week than there are reasons to doubt him. Expect Buffalo to re-establish the ground game while Allen re-ignites Buffalo’s passing attack against a Texans defense that does have weaknesses.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans' ground game is worse than the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Ravens; in fact, it may be the worst ground game they have faced thus far. Buffalo will want Houston to try and beat it on the ground and reduce how often it tries to move through the air, but Houston will counter. When it does, it will be all about pressure. Buffalo’s Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich have proven to be dominant when they can force opponents into pass-heavy schemes, and while Houston is a unique monster in that aspect, Buffalo has its own set of monsters Stroud and company must contend with.

Prediction: Bills 27 – Texans 24

If Joe Mixon was playing this prediction may be different, but at the time of publishing, it appears as though he is not. Buffalo does not need to fear the ground game of the Texans remotely close to how they were forced to fear the duo of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. As a result, Buffalo can go pass-heavy on defense and play games and tricks with C.J. Stroud. It will be by no means an easy attack, but with some expectation that the Texans try and feed Diggs to enact revenge (for a reason none of us will ever understand), expect Buffalo to try and hop a pass or two and force a turnover. Oh yeah, and No. 17 on Buffalo’s side may have A LOT to say on the outcome of this game.

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