Bills vs. Colts NFL Week 10 Preview: Will Buffalo's stampede continue?

The Buffalo Bills head to Indianapolis in Week 10 looking to continue their winning ways against the Colts.

Hans A. Hansen lll | Nov 8, 2024

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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s 10th edition of this analysis for the Bills' Week 10 clash with the Indianapolis Colts. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Colts Pass Defense

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Ten players have caught a touchdown pass for the Bills thus far this season, and none of them have more than three. That perfectly encapsulates what the 2024 Buffalo Bills are: a team that may not have a superstar outside of Josh Allen, but a team nonetheless that is chock-full of talented players. In the passing game specifically, whether it’s Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, or any other of a large gambit of players catching the ball, Buffalo is consistently finding success. That success, in turn, breeds points, of which Buffalo is averaging 28.9 per game, an impressive number for an offense that was widely expected to take a step back in 2024. Yet here we remain; what has been an elite offense for many years remains an elite offense and one that is fully expected to carry this Bills team on yet another playoff run.

The next step in assuring that takes place this Sunday in a matchup with the Colts in Indianapolis. This is a Colts team that remains very much in the playoff picture but has plenty of questions to answer if they expect to be a true contender. Among those questions is whether their second level can slow down opposing passing offenses, something they have struggled with to this point in the season. This is, in part, due to a rotation that relies heavily on fielding the correct personnel based on situation as they pivot between base and nickel. In base, Kenny Moore (CB) shifts to outside corner, joining Jaylon Jones (CB), while third linebacker Grant Stuard joins Zaire Franklin and EJ Speed in the middle of Indy’s defense. In nickel, Moore shifts down into the slot while Samuel Womack (CB) takes his spot on the outside with Nick Cross and Julian Blackmon manning the safety positions. Of the eight players mentioned, Moore is by far Indianapolis’ greatest weapon and one that Buffalo must be privy to. That means attacking with the likes of Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman (barring health) on the outside when Moore is in the slot and leveraging Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the middle of the field when Moore is on the boundary. Execution of this strategy should provide Buffalo with a solid base for a dominating game through the air.

Where things could get a tad hairy for the Bills is in the trenches due to the diverse skillsets the Colts possess along their defensive line. Of greatest concern is the pair of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, who will challenge the trio of David Edwards (LG), Connor McGovern (C), and O’Cyrus Torrence (RG) to provide a clean pocket for Josh Allen to operate. On the season, Buckner and Stewart have combined for six sacks and 22 pressures despite Buckner missing five games. The concerns also extend to the outside where a rotation of Dayo Odeyingbo, Kwity Paye, and Laiatu Latu may not be statistically productive, but the talent is undeniably present. Buffalo will need Dion Dawkins (LT) and Spencer Brown (RT) to continue their impressive 2024 campaigns while relying on their quarterback to avoid sacks when pressures manifest. Luckily for Buffalo, Allen has statistically been one of the best sack avoiders in recent history and in 2024 is amongst the league's best in sack rate at 4.03%.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Colts Rush Defense

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The Bills quietly have one of the NFL’s best running back duos, with James Cook and Ray Davis quickly establishing themselves among the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, and Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. Cook was a known commodity coming into 2024 but has elevated his game while Davis has burst onto the scene as an impressive rookie. To that end, Davis currently ranks third among rookie running backs in scrimmage yards (411) despite having 35 fewer touches than the two running backs in front of him. What pops the most for Davis is his aggressive running style that sees him get north-south impressively quick. As a result, his 2.1 yards before contact is roughly equivalent to his 2.2 yards after contact as he consistently is bullying defenders in front of him. This complements Cook’s scatback style of running and is a primary reason that the Bills' rushing attack has been so potent this season.

This week, that rushing attack will take on an aggressive Colts defense that likes to play their linebackers at or around the line of scrimmage. Both Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed come into this game as talented players who are freak athletes with respective RAS scores of 9.64 and 9.21. Franklin currently leads the NFL with 96 total tackles while Speed leads with 58 solo tackles. They each possess the speed to chase down runners outside the hashes while maintaining strength to contend with blockers in the middle of the field. This is how Buffalo will try and mitigate their abilities, as getting an offensive lineman to the second level will be paramount in keeping those two off their runners. Specifically keep an eye on Buffalo’s tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, who have a history of getting into space and physically dominating second-level defenders. In order to allow for this, though, there are questions as to whether or not Buffalo can win at the line of scrimmage due in large part to two forces in the center of the Colts defense.

The most tenuous aspect of Buffalo’s rushing attack, especially on interior runs, is caused by the advantage that Indianapolis has in the front center of their defense. The aforementioned DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are amongst the league’s best interior pairs. Buckner with length (6’7”) and Stewart with size (314lb) make interior runs near impossible as each is not only capable of gaining penetration, but also soaking up multiple blockers. For that reason, the A gap should be viewed as a losing proposition with more runs attacking the edge of the tackle box this week than in weeks past. This also extends beyond Bills' running backs, who while being Buffalo’s primary form of production on the ground, may not be their most dangerous. While on The Pat McAfee Show on Thursday, Josh Allen alluded to feeling healthy enough to get back to his physical style of running. Buffalo may need some of that on Sunday to keep the ball moving against the Colts.

ADVANTAGE: Colts👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Colts Pass Offense

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Underappreciated and over-criticized are accurate ways to describe Buffalo's safeties. Both Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are generally viewed as lesser players at the position by fans both in and outside Buffalo. Meanwhile, the two haven’t been bad, or even average; they have actually been good for the Bills at the halfway point of the season. Each have 40+ tackles, 57 for Hamlin and 43 for Rapp, while holding a sub 2.5% missed tackle rate (1.7% for Hamlin, 2.3% for Rapp). If their abilities as open-field tacklers don’t excite you, how about their skills at defending the pass, where Hamlin’s five pass breakups and Taylor Rapp’s four rank first and third, respectively, for the Bills this season. Much of the criticisms levied onto them are based on unfair comparisons to Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in their prime, who during that time were one of the better safety duos in recent league history. But for as crazy as this may sound, there is a reasonable argument to be made that 2024 Hamlin and Rapp are better than the Poyer and Hyde paring would be this year.

That safety tandem will be tested this week against a Colts team that can and will hit the deep ball. The primary weapon in that respect is Alec Pierce, who has the highest yard per catch in the NFL at a whopping 22.9. The question is who will be throwing Pierce and company the ball? It appears likely the answer will be veteran Joe Flacco as the Colts have benched the young and inexperienced Anthony Richardson. The latter is seemingly the better matchup for the Bills with how McDermott affects young quarterbacks; however, at this point in his career, Flacco is not the quarterback he once was. But Flacco will still occasionally string together a handful of high-level throws and, on the Colts, has the weapons to execute. Josh Downs is an up-and-coming possession receiver out of the slot while Michael Pittman is a true WR1. Pittman’s availability is in question though which could give way to exciting rookie Adonai Mitchell to see the field and join Mo Allie-Cox (TE) and Jonathan Taylor (RB) as auxiliary options for the Colts passing attack. Both Allie-Cox and Taylor have been underutilized in this aspect, however, but with Buffalo’s inefficiencies in guarding tight ends and running backs in the passing game, Flacco and co. may need to ramp up their utilization if they have any hope of contending this week.

Things do become even more tenuous for the Colts' passing offense in the trenches where earlier this week they were dealt a major blow. Four-time Pro Bowl Center Ryan Kelly was placed on injured reserve, paving the way for rookie Tanor Bortolini to get the start against the Bills. Bobby Babich and Sean McDermott are clearly aware of the NFL inexperience in this spot and will likely look to take advantage. Of course, the hope is that Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones will up their game this week but timely blitzes from Dorian Williams and/or Terrel Bernard could pay dividends. At this point in his career, Flacco is relatively statuesque, meaning a pocket is necessary for his success. In whatever way Buffalo can collapse that pocket, expect it to do so, as dominating in this particular matchup could decide the outcome of this game.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Colts Rush Offense

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Inefficiencies against the run begin and to some extent end for Buffalo in the middle of their defensive line. Ed Oliver has been playing well below the level of play he maintained in 2023. DaQuan Jones does not seem like the same player he was prior to his pectoral injury last season. Austin Johnson has been fine but uninspiring. Exciting rookie DeWayne Carter was injured a couple of weeks back and is now on IR. With all of those struggles in this single position group, Buffalo has looked both within and outside the organization to improve. Eli Ankou has been called up from the practice squad multiple times and in spurts has looked like the Bills' best defensive tackle. They also signed two defensive tackles post-trade deadline, both of whom are familiar faces. One is fan favorite Jordan Phillips, who tends to elevate his level of play specifically when playing for the Bills. The other is Quinton Jefferson, who may not be the player he once was but is still a solid rotational piece for a Bills team that needs whatever help they can get at defensive tackle.

Of all of those defensive tackles, Buffalo will need at least one to excel this week, otherwise the Colts' path to victory will become much clearer. Indy can run the ball, and against a team like the Bills that has struggled to defend the run, will run the ball early and often. Their bellcow is Jonathan Taylor who is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and 83.7 yards per game as he is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season. Though he may not be generating the headlines of a player like Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley, Taylor should be in the conversation for the league’s best back as a do-it-all player that should present a massive mismatch for this Buffalo team. He’s also spelled by Trey Sermon, whose 2.8 yards per attempt aren’t indicative of his actual abilities as a runner. The Bills' only way to counter the Colts' ground attack will be to win in the trenches while sprinkling in the occasional run blitz and hoping they guess right more often than not. Buffalo may not need to win this matchup, but they can’t get dominated here, either.

A ray of hope does exist for Buffalo off the edge where Greg Rousseau is having a quietly dominant season. His 11 tackles for loss lead the NFL, and this week, he will likely line up over Braden Smith. Rousseau’s ability to penetrate has increased dramatically this season due to increased strength while his abilities to use his length remain, making him one of the NFL’s most feared run defenders at defensive end. If he can maintain that level of play against the Colts, it will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Add to that the return of Von Miller as well as a subtly improving A.J. Epenesa and, for all the concerns with the interior of the Bills' defensive line, they very well may have an advantage on the exterior. Still, it would be disingenuous to suggest that the Colts don’t have a clear advantage overall in the ground game, but it is one that the Bills should have some ability to contend with.

ADVANTAGE: Colts 👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Colts Special Teams

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“61-yard try for the lead, it is, oh it’s, he’s got it! He’s got it! He’s got it!” This was the Kevin Harlan call that rang through Western New York homes as Tyler Bass nailed a game-winning field goal against the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. It’s quite possible that that is the boost Bass needs to rebuild the confidence that at one point made him an elite kicker, but Sunday wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. He did miss an extra point and hit the upright on a separate kick, which only ramps up the questions regarding him moving forward. As for Sam Martin, he remains a steady eddy, with very few question marks. His 43.8% Inside the 20 rate is the second highest of his career while he continues to carry a net yards per punt north of 40 (40.7). Rounding out the Bills' special teams is Buffalo’s most underrated offseason addition, Brandon Codrington. The rookie has been a breath of fresh air in the return game, producing an impressive 11.9 yards per punt return and 32.5 yards per kick return.

Special Teams have been an area of relative strength for the Colts this season with impressive statistics in kicking, punting, and returns. Kicker Matt Gay is 31/31 on kicks inside of 50 yards but 0/3 beyond 50 yards. With this game taking place in a dome you can trust that this trend will at a minimum hold true in Week 10. Punter Rigoberto Sanchez has also been solid this season, ranking sixth in net yards per punt (43.2) and 10th in inside the 20 rate (47.5%). The Colts may need him to flip the field this week and Sanchez has proven more than capable of doing just that. Lastly is the Colts return game that sees Josh Downs handle punt returns and multiple players handle kick returns, with Ashton Dulin the most recent to do so. Downs' 10.9 yards per punt return coupled with his elite athleticism makes him a very real threat to take one to the house, and while Dulin may have only two kick returns, he's averaging a whopping 37.5 yards on those two opportunities.

ADVANTAGE: Colts 👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

The Indianapolis Colts may have lost their most recent game against the Minnesota Vikings, but the level of aggressiveness their defense played with should be concerning to anyone who has them on their schedule. They play fast and physical and, in doing so, lower the talent of their opposition. The same should be expected from them this week against the Bills as they rely on consistently winning in the middle of their defense while hoping the outside can survive. As with most weeks in the NFL, this game likely will come down to turnovers, and if the Colts can force Buffalo into a couple, they could steal a game that otherwise could be a struggle.

On the other side of the ball, we still see flashes of elite quarterback play from Joe Flacco, which makes Indianapolis’ run-first offense all the more dangerous. We know that Jonathan Taylor will produce and though he could singlehandedly win this game behind an offensive line led by Quenton Nelson, Flacco and his weapons will have a say. A deep ball to Pierce, a solid distribution to Pittman/Mitchell, Downs, and Mo Allie-Cox, and there is no reason Indy couldn’t put up 28 points which may be enough to come away with the win in this one.

Why Buffalo Will Win

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Each week Josh Allen seems to become more and more confident as he morphs into one of the league’s most surgical passers. He may have to do that this week without Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman, but he has proven more than good enough to lead a receiving corps of Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Dalton Kincaid to victory. Expect a big game from him for that reason while Buffalo still leans on the run to open up much of its offense. In this game Buffalo has the ability to win through the air and on the ground; win in one and you may win the game.

On defense, Buffalo may need to stack the box to slow down Jonathan Taylor but can do so with full trust that its secondary can win their matchups if Flacco drops back to pass. If Christian Benford returns, it will be a massive boon for a defense that relies heavily on the talent of their corners, but even without him, the Bills have a clear advantage here. It’s simple: don’t get dominated on the ground, and this isn’t a victory Buffalo should have, it’s one they will have.

Prediction: Bills 30 – Colts 17

This Buffalo Bills team in a dome in Indianapolis against a Colts team that their fans aren’t all that excited for feels like a two-score Bills victory. Buffalo is rolling right now and can feel another division title within its grasp as it's on the verge of going 8-2. The only major concern here is the trap that can be felt by playing a division rival in Week 9 and the Chiefs in Week 11. As long as Buffalo doesn’t fall for that, it should take care of business here in a big way and set up a clash which very well may be for the No. 1 seed in the AFC next week.

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Published Nov 8, 2024

HANS A. HANSEN LLL