Bills Central

Is Bills QB Josh Allen actually on pace for an NFL MVP-caliber season?

We’ve extrapolated Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s statistics through the first 11 games to see if he’s on pace to construct an NFL MVP-caliber year.

Anthony Miller

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Few players throughout the 2024 NFL season have been more integral to the success of their club than Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The veteran field general has been dynamic through the first 11 games of the 2024 campaign, with his heroic outing against the Kansas City Chiefs (primarily his 26-yard game-sealing touchdown run) placing him firmly at the forefront of NFL MVP conversations.

Allen's statistics through 11 games are impressive, and he's thrown for 2,543 yards and 18 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. He’s also rushed for 316 yards and five touchdowns.

Related: Where does ESPN rank Bills QB Josh Allen in NFL MVP race?

Those numbers demonstrate how much he has meant to the Bills and how much they've asked him to do in the wake of offseason roster turnover. The losses of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis put pressure on Allen to spread the ball around and take on more of an overt leadership role, and he's answered the call and has led Buffalo to a 9-2 record entering the bye week.

Josh Alle
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Given the recent MVP buzz, we’ve decided to extrapolate Allen’s stat line through 11 weeks to see the type of stat line he’s projected to finish with. He's on pace to throw for 3,930 yards and 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He’s also slated to rush for 488 yards and seven touchdowns, which would place him at 34 total scores on the year.

It’s more likely that Allen will be able to exceed these numbers, as these are just extrapolated projections, but how do these stats compare to recent NFL MVPs? Here’s a look at the last four MVPs and their final stats:

  • 2023 – Lamar Jackson (3,678 passing yards & 821 rushing yards, 29 total touchdowns)
  • 2022 – Patrick Mahomes (5,250 passing yards & 358 rushing yards, 44 total touchdowns)
  • 2021 – Aaron Rodgers (4,115 passing yards & 101 rushing yards, 40 total touchdowns)
  • 2020 – Aaron Rodgers (4,299 passing yards & 149 rushing yards, 51 total touchdowns)

While the MVP winners from 2020 through 2022 look to have better stats than Allen's 2024, his numbers are similar to what Jackson did last year outside of the rushing yards. Allen is on his way to passing for more yards and scoring more touchdowns than Jackson did last year; that said Jackson is currently pacing to dramatically improve upon his 2023 stat line this year and could be a shoo-in for his second consecutive (and third total) MVP nod.

There is stiff competition this season for the MVP, as Allen will have to compete with Jackson to win the award. That said, there's still significant football left to be played, and Allen still has an opportunity to bolster his chances.

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Anthony Miller
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